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2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0

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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:35 pm

21z SREF.....
2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 5 Sref_n10
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:35 pm

about .4in for NYC/LI
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:37 pm

Mets2695 wrote:21z SREF.....
2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 5 Sref_n10

Post the 15z image please for comparison.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:37 pm

wow 1-2.5 inches around nyc, dang this may end up having nothing at all.
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Post by shawnerak Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:40 pm

Anyone watching the Pens. Hawks. game at soldier field?!?!  lol! INSANITY!!! I hope we can produce snowfall rates like that!!  affraid 
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:40 pm

These are both valid for 21utc monday
2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 5 Sref_n11
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:42 pm

Mets2695 wrote:These are both valid for 21utc monday
2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 5 Sref_n11

About a 25 mile south shift between the 15z and 21z run
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Post by Sanchize06 Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:42 pm

Well everyone start praying as the NAM gets started because this is our last chance I think anyway. If there's no north shift tonight, I don't think there will be

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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:44 pm

Current Radar:
with
500mb Height
500mb Wind
Overlay

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 5 Cucj
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:44 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:Well everyone start praying as the NAM gets started because this is our last chance I think anyway. If there's no north shift tonight, I don't think there will be

Agree, theoretically it's possible tomorrow but the models only get better as the event gets closer
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:47 pm

Yea technically all hope can't be lost until 12z tmw.
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:51 pm

0z NAM is running now
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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:52 pm

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=012&image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_012_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140302+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model


NAM out to 12................
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Post by Sanchize06 Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:52 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:Well everyone start praying as the NAM gets started because this is our last chance I think anyway. If there's no north shift tonight, I don't think there will be

Agree, theoretically it's possible tomorrow but the models only get better as the event gets closer

True, I just have to see something, even if it's only 15 miles or so. If we stay where we are now I think the only shift we get tomorrow would be enough to help Philly, and maybe parts of CNJ

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Post by Sanchize06 Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:02 pm

NAM to me looks even further south than 18z

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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:02 pm

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_024_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=024&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140302+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

NAM out to 24......SOOOOOOOOO CLOSE
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:03 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:NAM to me looks even further south than 18z
Agree.

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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:03 pm

looks south that high is charging into the midwest
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:05 pm

Precip is actually slightly further north than 18z
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Post by Sanchize06 Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:05 pm

Precip looks stronger out in the Midwest but I don't think that will help us just more qpf for southern areas

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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:05 pm

500mb vort is quite potent on the NAM at hr 30.

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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:07 pm

PV and confluence is also farther North in the Midwest and a tad weaker.  Dont think this will change things in epic proportions.

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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:09 pm

Dose not matter this run is going way south.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:11 pm

At 36 the NAM has the LP about 20 miles further SE but precip on the overrunning is slightly more robust in this area, next frames the main event will miss, our only hope is squeezing a couple inches from the overrunning, main event is done
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:13 pm

Once again some mets saying that the 500mb doesn't match the surface.
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