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2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:14 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Once again some mets saying that the 500mb doesn't match the surface.

This is a load, how many runs is it going to take, their crappy forecast is in jeopardy. I'm getting quite fed up with this because in the end they're going to just shrug their shoulders when someone calls them out on giving people false hope.
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:14 pm

NAM closes this off for about 3 hours in the Mid West.
2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 6 Nam_z512

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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:14 pm

i don't get it the Nam shows snow all the way to Tennessee and North Carolina
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:18 pm

Even philly gets shafted now lol
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:20 pm

You tell me if something is different at 500mb on the NAM. Make your own opinion. All is see is a small shift and weakening of the confluence, maybe 35 miles.
18z
2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 6 Nam_z513
0z
2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 6 Nam_z514

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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:20 pm

Eastern PA Weather Authority: "NAM is ridiculously off from H5 ... ignore it. Surface not even close to matching 500mb."


Last edited by Mets2695 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:22 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Sanchize06 Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:22 pm

Tom, we get on the jackpot of the overunning with a strip of 3" lol


Last edited by Sanchize06 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:23 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:22 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Mets2695 wrote:Once again some mets saying that the 500mb doesn't match the surface.

This is a load, how many runs is it going to take, their crappy forecast is in jeopardy. I'm getting quite fed up with this because in the end they're going to just shrug their shoulders when someone calls them out on giving people false hope.

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 6 Uf0h
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:22 pm

Everyone take a look at 700mb on the NAM. It tells the whole story.

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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:23 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Eastern PA Weather Authority NAM is ridiculously off from H5 ... ignore it. Surface not even close to matching 500mb.

i don't see where they are saying this do you follow them individually i only follow the main twitter and Facebook page
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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:23 pm

@Joe Snow wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Mets2695 wrote:Once again some mets saying that the 500mb doesn't match the surface.

This is a load, how many runs is it going to take, their crappy forecast is in jeopardy. I'm getting quite fed up with this because in the end they're going to just shrug their shoulders when someone calls them out on giving people false hope.

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 6 Uf0h

lmao! lol! 
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:23 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Eastern PA Weather Authority: "NAM is ridiculously off from H5 ... ignore it. Surface not even close to matching 500mb."

Yea, they really nailed the 4-8" for the area on 2/13 part 2 and did great with the 3-6" on the storm that barely dropped 1-2 the day after. They made some ok forecasts in the past but I lost all respect for them. Not willing to admit when they're wrong.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:24 pm

@pdubz wrote:
@Joe Snow wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Mets2695 wrote:Once again some mets saying that the 500mb doesn't match the surface.

This is a load, how many runs is it going to take, their crappy forecast is in jeopardy. I'm getting quite fed up with this because in the end they're going to just shrug their shoulders when someone calls them out on giving people false hope.

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 6 Uf0h

lmao! lol! 

haha nice
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:26 pm

@pdubz wrote:
Mets2695 wrote:Eastern PA Weather Authority NAM is ridiculously off from H5 ... ignore it. Surface not even close to matching 500mb.

i don't see where they are saying this do you follow them individually i only follow the main twitter and Facebook page

This is from their Facebook page. They commented under their second call map.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:27 pm

Okay, let me get this straight… if you go back to friday's 06z GFS run up to now, we went from a 14-18 inch event to 2-4. That's a span of about 40 hours. I've seen enough. Time to abandon ship!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:27 pm

Mets2695 wrote:
@pdubz wrote:
Mets2695 wrote:Eastern PA Weather Authority NAM is ridiculously off from H5 ... ignore it. Surface not even close to matching 500mb.

i don't see where they are saying this do you follow them individually i only follow the main twitter and Facebook page

This is from their Facebook page. They commented under their second call map.

Rule of thumb. Good weather forecasters don't post on facebook. Al, you're going to school Monday and Tuesday and I'm going to my crappy job I hate. It's a hard knock life.
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:28 pm

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 6 Usa_as15
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:28 pm

Nothing is wrong with the NAM. Precip shield cant move north as the PV is sending down Dry air with less than 20% humidity. Also forces all the VV south so the convection follows.

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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:28 pm

$%#@ the NAM!! We go to the GFS!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:30 pm

@Quietace wrote:Nothing is wrong with the NAM. Precip shield cant move north as the PV is sending down Dry air with less than 20% humidity. Also forces all the VV south so the convection follows.

Thank you. PV will squash a storm like that, if it was that 500mb signature with no PV influence I would agree but that PV is very powerful, it shunted the 988 low SE on 2/6/10 as it was really trying to come up the coast.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:31 pm

This certainly seems like another storm where the undervalued CMC really excelled. GFS was the first to have the idea but well too far north. EURO and JMA were all over the place. Surprisingly the NAM ever since the storm was in range had a fairly south track even at 84. There were some north runs but most were south. CMC first place, GFS second, NAM third and the rest in the dumpster.
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:32 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Nothing is wrong with the NAM. Precip shield cant move north as the PV is sending down Dry air with less than 20% humidity. Also forces all the VV south so the convection follows.

Thank you. PV will squash a storm like that, if it was that 500mb signature with no PV influence I would agree but that PV is very powerful, it shunted the 988 low SE on 2/6/10 as it was really trying to come up the coast.
Yup, while 500mb really drives our surface, it doesn't tell the whole picture of whats going on in the atmosphere. People need to get that.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:33 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Nothing is wrong with the NAM. Precip shield cant move north as the PV is sending down Dry air with less than 20% humidity. Also forces all the VV south so the convection follows.

Thank you. PV will squash a storm like that, if it was that 500mb signature with no PV influence I would agree but that PV is very powerful, it shunted the 988 low SE on 2/6/10 as it was really trying to come up the coast.
Yup, while 500mb really drives our surface, it doesn't tell the whole picture of whats going on in the atmosphere. People need to get that.

100%
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Euro was pretty far south too. It went further south than the GFS much faster. I would put the euro in 3rd or 4th
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Post by oldtimer Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Great job today Tom but you are still going to get fired!! LOL

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