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2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0

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Post by HectorO Sat Mar 01, 2014 4:13 pm

Yes! My area may not get much at all. Hope it stays that way because I have some money to make Monday and Tuesday.
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Post by Grselig Sat Mar 01, 2014 4:20 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:CP - hang in there buddy take the time to renew!!

Mugs:

As one poster said yesterday as things started to turn against us, "it's only snow".

Obviously they had no clue, to those of us with the mutant gene, it's so much more than just snow.

Its so much more than just snow. Its all the things that make the seasons great. Its mystical. Its "Its a Wonderful Life", Miracle on 34th Street. Lionel Trains. Fireplaces. Santa and Hanukah Harry and etc.... Its gifts. Its snowball fights. Its childhood. Its Calvin and Hobbes. Its no school. Its Baileys. its gifts. Its lights. Its Frosty the Snowman. Its real snowmen.
and I am missing so so much more.................... Its not just snow. Its "SNOW".
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Post by RJB8525 Sat Mar 01, 2014 4:22 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Uptons map has all of NYC and LI in 6-8"

yup saw that too,thats still a really good storm still room for change or its a lock now? haven't really been around today. TWC has 3-5 for NYC with a lot o f mixing into late Sunday. ABC/Lee doing a twitter Q&A he says NYC will most likely see 6"
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 01, 2014 4:26 pm

nws upton has all of us in 4-6 in westchester and CT, but i am so close to NYC border I could easily see the 6-8
these maps will still change from now till monday morning
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Post by Sanchize06 Sat Mar 01, 2014 4:55 pm

GFS is terrible, way south probably 2-4"

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 4:56 pm

GFS is similar to the NAM slightly north but still south from 12z, it's very close to being over, going to give it a little bit. Where's the weenies now?
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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:01 pm

Current RADAR:

East CONUS

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 2 6bn2
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:05 pm

@Joe Snow wrote:Current RADAR:

East CONUS

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 2 6bn2

What point are you trying to make in posting these?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:05 pm

im here nj but losing all hope pretty much.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:05 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:GFS is similar to the NAM slightly north but still south from 12z, it's very close to being over, going to give it a little bit. Where's the weenies now?

It was so crazy the last few days tracking this, I'm done looking at the models....going to lurk of course, but I'll be looking ahead a little bit. I'm expecting maybe 6" here, and over an extended period of time, not expecting any travel difficulties....at least my family won't riot,they are done with this winter. lol

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:08 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Joe Snow wrote:Current RADAR:

East CONUS

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 2 6bn2

What point are you trying to make in posting these?

Track live vs. the Models................ Not making any point. Just observing..............
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Post by Sharon L Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:09 pm

I think I'm still in the 8" area. This has been crazy to watch, I guess a storm crossing the entire country is hard to track and then blame the rest on Canada? What is the major issue? The vortex holding it further south?

Have a great weekend anyway!

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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:11 pm

Upton:
SO THE FORECAST...BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED TRENDS AND
UNCERTAINTY...KEEPS THE WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN AMOUNTS OVERALL FOR MOST AREA. INTERIOR IS NEARLY THE
SAME AS BEFORE IN TERMS OF SNOW AMOUNTS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
SNOWFALL FORECASTS WITH A SWING OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EITHER WAY
ABOUT OUR FORECAST POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL TRENDS. ONE THING
TO NOTE ABOUT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS IS THAT THEY WILL HAVE MORE SAMPLES
OF THE MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING JET IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SO WE COULD
SEE THIS RESPOND AS A CHANGING TREND TONIGHT WITH MODEL OUTPUT OF
PRECIPITATION IN MODELS.
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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:17 pm

the 18 Zgfs has the main area of percipitation now in southern Virginia and North Carolina. that is incredible. I just can't see that happening. the euro went from rain 3 days ago to almost missing us completely. its just hard to understand how poorly these models can be.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:18 pm

algea, i know i doubt it but we could be in for a surprise come monday and the models being completely wrong, imo mainly in part due to the so many factors involved.
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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:26 pm

it seems like we get big snowfall when the models do not show it until three days out or less. its a consistent pattern with these models to show big storms a week out and they never happen. National Weather Service should consider not having any model predict any weather for more than 3 days. after that they are useless. they should invest more money in determining the signals then invest money in upgrading these models. this storm in particular is very frustrating.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:28 pm

@algae888 wrote:it seems like we get big snowfall when the models do not show it until three days out or less. its a consistent pattern with these models to show big storms a week out and they never happen. National Weather Service should consider not having any model predict any weather for more than 3 days. after that they are useless. they should invest more money in determining the signals then invest money in upgrading these models. this storm in particular is very frustrating.

This is not always the case. But yes, this winter it has been for a majority of storms.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:38 pm

Looking at the national radar the first batch of precip is still so far north in Michigan, can't imagine it can dive so far south being so close to us now.....looks like it should have heading south by now if it is going to be a jackpot for mid-atlantic, I know we have a second piece coming, but I don't know about this....

http://www.weather.gov/current

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:40 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Looking at the national radar the first batch of precip is still so far north in Michigan, can't imagine it can dive so far south being so close to us now.....looks like it should have heading south by ow if it is going to be a jackpot for mid-atlantic, I know we have a second piece coming, but I don't know about this....

http://www.weather.gov/current


Not the same system really, just an overrunning batch, it's exactly where it's supposed to be per 18z NAM

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_18z/wrf06.html
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:40 pm

Current obs, certainly show a further south track then the models depicted a couple days ago, but not to the extent they are showing today. IMO NYC south is still in the game for a major storm.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:41 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Current obs, certainly show a further south track then the models depicted a couple days ago, but not to the extent they are showing today. IMO NYC south is still in the game for a major storm.

Yea 50 miles south of NYC
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:44 pm

6" is still very possible for NYC, which is a major storm being that it will be at its worst during the morning commute
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:47 pm

SREF plumes are about 6" for ISP
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:51 pm

18z Hi-Res nam is 6-8" for NYC/LI with ratios.
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Post by jimv45 Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:58 pm

New york city will not see more then 6 more like 3 to 6

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