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2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:41 am

Still don't like how overall flat those heights are.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:42 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Still don't like how overall flat those heights are.

It's pretty flat across the entire US minus the weak ridging in the west. This is why this will not be a long duration event

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:44 am

NAVGEM is still very suppressed. Not buying the north shift yet as so far it's only on the GFS and CMC and like a 20 mile difference at most. Easily a wiggle that could go back south.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:55 am

00z ggem snow map

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:57 am

EURO has bumped north!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:59 am

It's about 3-5 inches for NYC, still not like the GFS. Shuts down the precip erly

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:01 am

EURO should have showed a better result PV was weaker and it just oddly cuts out the precip, unlike the GFS.

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Post by Yschiff Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:03 am

Frank do you think the models will keep trending north?

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Post by pdubz Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:05 am

back home and the trend north begins, lets just hope it keeps going  Smile 
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Post by pdubz Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:08 am

from accu forum "48 hour surface low is south of Charleston SC along coast line. H5 has almost completely sheared this out. Either that or someone has spoofed the IWM display." that doesn't sound good
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:10 am

Want to see QPF map and see if there's any shift, unfortunately I cannot see it until 230 with pro, Frank, can you get QPF, here is 12z for comparison.

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From what you're describing it's pretty much the same.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:12 am

Hearing from Americanwx it's not north or south but essentially exactly the same. Yawn I'm going to be, didn't see any real trends here IMO, just little wiggles from some models.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:14 am

euro snow map

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:15 am

6 inches for NYC! Yay Euro! 6 inches is the goal. 4-8 inch call still looks good.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:18 am

This is interesting

BUST WARNING
THE BUST WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
1:00 AM EST MARCH 2, 2014
-------------------------------------

THE BUST WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A **BUST WARNING** FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA(S)..

*NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY
*NEW YORK'S FIVE BOROUGHS
*STATE OF MASSACHUSETTS

UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING..

THE BUST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING MAJOR BUST PROJECTED IN THE STATE OF MASSACHUSETTS...NEW YORK CITY AREA...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY..
CURRENTLY THE BUST LEVELS REMAIN AT 50.4 PERCENT WITH A TOSS LEVEL OF 3 PERCENT SAYS THE TOSS CENTER.
THIS STORM STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO NOT BUST AND WE CAN DROP THIS WARNING AS NEEDED. THE TOSS CENTER WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBLE TOSS OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

KL/AS/AG/TWB

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:24 am

OMG this is a real one hahaha

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Post by pdubz Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:25 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:OMG this is a real one hahaha

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 12 1010088_747236211953378_1700184907_n
lmao
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Post by essexcountypete Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:30 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:OMG this is a real one hahaha

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 12 1010088_747236211953378_1700184907_n

I guess Homer Simpson is doing the write up tonight
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Post by Artechmetals Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:38 am

Are there any more model runs tonight
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Post by pdubz Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:47 am

@Artechmetals wrote:Are there any more model runs tonight
nope all done until this morning and midday
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Post by Math23x7 Sun Mar 02, 2014 2:00 am

What did the 0Z GFS ensembles call for?

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Post by pdubz Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:22 am

Winter storm watch have been downgraded to WWA... 3-6 inches, they aren't buying the northern shift. lets see what 12z has to say about that
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:28 am

I was under a Hazardous Weather advisory, upgraded to WWA....2-4"

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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:33 am

UPTON has downgraded NYC to a WWA. :-(
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Post by pdubz Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:19 am

06z NAM moves north with the 0.50 inch line From south NJ to Central NJ
sharper cutoffs on the north side, at least its around a 20-30 mile push north

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0z NAM Snowfall
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6z NAM Snowfall
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