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2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0

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Post by 2004blackwrx Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:57 am

Tonight will be my night off from work Hoping and I mean hopng based on current models for a big storm still. If not at least want some accumulating snow tomorrow night so I can light a fire in my fire pit and have some beer in some beautiful snowy weather.

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Post by pdubz Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:59 am

@2004blackwrx wrote:Tonight will be my night off from work Hoping and I mean hopng based on current models for a big storm still. If not at least want some accumulating snow tomorrow night so I can light a fire in my fire pit and have some beer in some beautiful snowy weather.

that sounds good, iv always wanted to have a BBQ in the snow but fire pit sounds good also
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Post by 2004blackwrx Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:04 am

I have done the bbq. It just gets cold, but the food is yummy!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:08 am

Anyone see the 6z GFS yet?
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Post by pdubz Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:11 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Anyone see the 6z GFS yet?

nope i think it starts at 5:30
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Post by 2004blackwrx Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:11 am

Unfortunately no access, and doesnt appear many are up yet.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:15 am

No it starts at 4:30 I'm just to lazy to get out of bed and look. I'm on my I phone.
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Post by pdubz Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:23 am

06z GFS is 10 miles south from last time.. it is mostly recycled data so wait on 12Z
2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 13 Index
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Post by 2004blackwrx Sun Mar 02, 2014 7:16 am

I see snow flakes if i look hard

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Post by Joe Snow Sun Mar 02, 2014 7:19 am

Current RADAR Snow is moving in a North east direction

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 13 V69g
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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 02, 2014 7:36 am

NWS bumped me to a WWA.Looks like a good chance for 2 to 4 here.I'm an amateur, but looking at that radar above, that PV is really going to have to get to work pushing this all south.

Nowcast time.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 02, 2014 7:39 am

Just checked Accuweather.They still have me at 3 to 6.Same snow map as yesterday PM.
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Post by Radz Sun Mar 02, 2014 7:52 am

I am still having trouble believing that the bulk of the moisture gets suppressed as much as currently modeled, maybe i have my snow goggles on…
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Post by Mathgod55 Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:00 am

On the US radar, draw a line from Chicago to NYC and press animate. You will notice the northern precip shield moving south. PV in the house!
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Post by sroc4 Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:29 am

I was up all night with my son who was vomiting so Im exhausted and frustrated as Im sure is everyone.  Here is my updated snow map.  I wont be on as I am going to catchup with sleep.  

So here is the updated snow map. As you can see pretty dramatic changes to my first map. I cannot deny the latest trends to most of the models. That is a track that is further S and E than I originally anticipated. I had this feeling last night but wanted to see how things went overnight. I still think a jog north by 25 Miles is still possible, but that's about as far north as anticipated. As a result shift all the snow lines north. I also think lesser amounts are not out of the question either. Unless any dramatic changes this will be it for this system.
2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 13 <a href=2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 13 March_12" />
2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 13 <a href=2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 13 Satell10" />

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:02 am

12z nam coming in now. I honestly don't like the look of water vapor imagery this morning. Leaning toward reducing snowfall amounts to 2-4 inches for NYC and / NNJ, with just a coating to an inch or two north of NYC.


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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:04 am

Nam came in pretty nice. 4-7 inches of snow for NYC, 2-4 for areas in the .25 precip zone

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 13 Nam-mslp-qpftotal-ne_hr30

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:05 am

Wow frank what a drastic change from what we were thinking a few days ago.  Well my wife is happy. 2-4 is just nussiance nothing to worry about.  Do we have any other chances this year or are are we stickin a fork in it?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:06 am

Actually, read the map wrong. NAM is 2-4 inches for NYC and just an inch or two for others north. You have to go into southern NJ to see 6+

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:07 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Wow frank what a drastic change from what we were thinking a few days ago.  Well my wife is happy. 2-4 is just nussiance nothing to worry about.  Do we have any other chances this year or are are we stickin a fork in it?

Still some chances going into mid March, but getting the cold air will be difficult. A lot of thread the needle events

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Post by Grselig Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:14 am

@sroc4 wrote:I was up all night with my son who was vomiting so Im exhausted and frustrated as Im sure is everyone.  Here is my updated snow map.  I wont be on as I am going to catchup with sleep.  

So here is the updated snow map. As you can see pretty dramatic changes to my first map. I cannot deny the latest trends to most of the models. That is a track that is further S and E than I originally anticipated. I had this feeling last night but wanted to see how things went overnight. I still think a jog north by 25 Miles is still possible, but that's about as far north as anticipated. As a result shift all the snow lines north. I also think lesser amounts are not out of the question either. Unless any dramatic changes this will be it for this system.
2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 13 <a href=2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 13 March_12" />
2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 13 <a href=2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 13 Satell10" />

Thanks for the map. Hope your son feels better Never fun
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:22 am

WDC has gone from a forecast of rain and 50's for this storm 2 days ago to forecast of 8-12 inches of snow and high around 30.

Snow weenies must be in heaven down there, they haven't seen that much snow this season.
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Post by Joe Snow Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:25 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIVfbylUU-M


It's OVER.......................
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Post by sroc4 Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:32 am

@Joe Snow wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIVfbylUU-M


It's OVER.......................
Lmfao!  I was thinking about posting something like that at some point. 

@Grselig Thanks.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:33 am

Steve d still calling for 5-10" for CNJ, Staten island, and south shore of LI as of 8am. Pretty sure he's too high, I think our best chance is if the overunning trends wetter, the main part is pretty much a miss, but I guess we'll see what the GFS says

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