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2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:02 pm

What do you guys think for Bronx, border yonkers? 3-6?
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Post by petep10 Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:05 pm

I know I'm new here, but have been lurking all winter. I'm 56 and remember many monster winter snowfalls. I'm a big weenie because I ski. I just wanted to throw out an observation. The two pieces of northern HP that are pushing/blocking/steering this storm are looking weird on some models. The HP to our north moves east off the coast of Canada. The farther west HP that would be steering this storm to our south, looks like it is too far west to keep it in the mid-Atlantic. I think it's possible this storm can still move further north than the models are showing.

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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:12 pm

@petep10 wrote:I know I'm new here, but have been lurking all winter. I'm 56 and remember many monster winter snowfalls. I'm a big weenie because I ski. I just wanted to throw out an observation. The two pieces of northern HP that are pushing/blocking/steering this storm are looking weird on some models. The HP to our north moves east off the coast of Canada. The farther west HP that would be steering this storm to our south, looks like it is too far west to keep it in the mid-Atlantic. I think it's possible this storm can still move further north than the models are showing.
Welcome to the forum.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:13 pm

Nice sunopsis and welcome, I have been feeling weird about the models too.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:16 pm

@petep10 wrote:I know I'm new here, but have been lurking all winter. I'm 56 and remember many monster winter snowfalls. I'm a big weenie because I ski. I just wanted to throw out an observation. The two pieces of northern HP that are pushing/blocking/steering this storm are looking weird on some models. The HP to our north moves east off the coast of Canada. The farther west HP that would be steering this storm to our south, looks like it is too far west to keep it in the mid-Atlantic. I think it's possible this storm can still move further north than the models are showing.

Hi! And great observation/post. :-)
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Post by petep10 Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:16 pm

Thanks.....

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:16 pm

@petep10 wrote:I know I'm new here, but have been lurking all winter. I'm 56 and remember many monster winter snowfalls. I'm a big weenie because I ski. I just wanted to throw out an observation. The two pieces of northern HP that are pushing/blocking/steering this storm are looking weird on some models. The HP to our north moves east off the coast of Canada. The farther west HP that would be steering this storm to our south, looks like it is too far west to keep it in the mid-Atlantic. I think it's possible this storm can still move further north than the models are showing.

It's not the HP it's the upper level branch of the jet stream (the PV) that is keeping the flow so flat around here pushing it OTS. The HP itself is in fantastic position in the central US but the polar jet is too far south pushing into the northern NY state. Today's 6z run of the NAM showed a buckle in the PV and some interaction between the jets (not really a phase) allowing for more SW to NE flow, however this solution practically dropped off the face of the earth with later runs today and almost all guidance is suggesting the PV is stronger and pushing further south compressing the northern precip shield with a strong cutoff and shunting the low due east if not east-southeast.
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Post by petep10 Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:23 pm

I thought HP systems can have an affect on the PV. If the one to our north moves east and the other to our west moves further west, doesn't that give the PV wiggle room to come north?

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:26 pm

@petep10 wrote:I thought HP systems can have an affect on the PV. If the one to our north moves east and the other to our west moves further west, doesn't that give the PV wiggle room to come north?

Moves west? The forecast for that HP over Montana now is it's going to drop SE. It will enhance the cold air but not the culprit for the storm being OTS. It's the PV, this setup has occurred many times in '09-'10 with HP in idea position but the polar jet being too far south shunted the storms due east at a certain latitude.
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Post by MinaMak Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:28 pm

Just an interesting and I believe a significant observation. The current live radar show the band of snow in the Midwest to be 50-100 miles north of where the 0z & 12z GFS. Again, I believe the gfs is overestimating the strength of thr arctic high/PV and possibly overestimating the southern suppression that is being forescasted.

Look at the 12z GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014030112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html

Compare to live accuweather radar

We shall see!

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:32 pm

@MinaMak wrote:Just an interesting and I believe a significant observation. The current live radar show the band of snow in the Midwest to be 50-100 miles north of where the 0z & 12z GFS. Again, I believe the gfs is overestimating the strength of thr arctic high/PV and possibly overestimating the southern suppression that is being forescasted.

Look at the 12z GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014030112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html

Compare to live accuweather radar

We shall see!

18z has it in the right place along with the NAM, I wish people would stop looking for things that aren't there.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/avnloop.html
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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:40 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@MinaMak wrote:Just an interesting and I believe a significant observation. The current live radar show the band of snow in the Midwest to be 50-100 miles north of where the 0z & 12z GFS. Again, I believe the gfs is overestimating the strength of thr arctic high/PV and possibly overestimating the southern suppression that is being forescasted.

Look at the 12z GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014030112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html

Compare to live accuweather radar

We shall see!

18z has it in the right place along with the NAM, I wish people would stop looking for things that aren't there.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/avnloop.html


Everyone is just trying to post their interpretation or what they see, that's whys we are here discussing all things. Other wise there would be no discussion board.
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Post by Mathgod55 Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:43 pm

Relax NJ, everyone is entitled to an opinion. And let's not ever forget that old Mother Nature does at times fool us all.
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:44 pm

I think we need to all relax. Just observe tonight and watch the storm take shape. Models will continue to show what they will show unless they trend, and current observations wont really be useful (well they are useful now just to see the moisture transport out of the pacific and placement of the convection to match up with models but not for full scale use) until later tonight when our 500mb energy passes over the Rockies. Then we will know the initial strength of our southern vort(which model has it most correctly depicted), and the strength of the precip with it, and see really how strong PV is. Honestly, NYC doesn't look good for a 6+ event. We really should just get that threw our heads. But NYC south could still be in for some trends, whether its north or south, i believe this event isnt done trending one way or the other.
So sit back and enjoy the tracking and continue the discussion.

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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:45 pm

Can we hug this?
http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:46 pm

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 3 19692110
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:48 pm

GFS Ensembles have .5" of qpf for NYC/LI. Thats 6-8" with ratios.
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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:54 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Can we hug this?
http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif


Looks good to me. If only it verifies .......................if only..............
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:54 pm

EPAWA's 2nd call is coming out in 5min
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:56 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Can we hug this?
http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif
Its not possible to hug a model. Unless you hug the super computer, then it is.

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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 01, 2014 7:00 pm

@Quietace wrote:
Mets2695 wrote:Can we hug this?
http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif
Its not possible to hug a model. Unless you hug the super computer, then it is.


OK:

2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 3 S3cm
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 01, 2014 7:01 pm

NWS still has me 2 1/2 to 5 1/2 which I'll gladly take at this point.

Snowpack looks just terrible, dingy,grey,black.
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 7:01 pm

EPAWA's 2nd call
2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0  - Page 3 Firstc10
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Post by aiannone Sat Mar 01, 2014 7:04 pm

VERY GOOD READ BY EPAWA!!!
http://epawablogs.com/weather-alert-maps-2/
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 01, 2014 7:06 pm

epawa not sold on the south solution.  I like that.
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