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Final Snow Map, Obs. Thread 3/3 Storm

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:51 am

Final Snow Map, Obs. Thread 3/3 Storm 1507167_696523647066064_1116078271_n

I know this snow map is kind of a kick to the balls for some people, but I had to make a final one to account for the south trend. A sudden change of events considering much of the guidance a couple of days ago was showing a widespread 10+ inch type of snowfall for the majority of us due to a long duration overrunning event. It looks to the magnitude of the PV is too great for this storm and dry air will consume whatever snow attempts to form along the north side of the boundary. There is not enough 700mb frontogenesis away from the boundary and the arctic air is going to win out for most.

Snow will break out late this afternoon and become steadier overnight. It should come to an end by late morning tomorrow morning, maybe even as soon as 8-9am!

This was not a great job on my part with trying to forecast this storm. I figured the PV will be a main player, but I did not think it will cause this much havoc on the forecast. Luckily, this has been a great winter and we should not be upset over this (if you are a snow lover). Most people, I think, were actually relieved when I told them we are getting less snow than expected.

Use this thread for observations tonight into tomorrow.

Have a great day!

Frank


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:56 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by pdubz Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:55 am

GFS betrayed us once again
https://youtu.be/31g0YE61PLQ
Final Snow Map, Obs. Thread 3/3 Storm Desk_flip_guy_in_hd_by_lemmino-d6021t4


Last edited by pdubz on Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:58 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:57 am

QuietAce could get into some good snow, including snowman's mom. Lol

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Post by aiannone Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:02 am

I wonder if i can even squeeze out a delay from this lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:03 am

Mets2695 wrote:I wonder if i can even squeeze out a delay from this lol

Highly doubtful. Lol

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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:10 am

You know this is a very strange storm when most of the Jersey Shore gets a good amount of snow and LI winds up with C to 3.West to East track.Bizarre.

I think ,Frank, you,Doc and Ace did not do your usual great job on this, but you did mention that PV worry days ago.I give you credit for that.Hey, most of the Pro Mets blew this big time.
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Post by Yschiff Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:15 am

Did the CMC model come out yet ?

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:16 am

Oh what can you do Frank, I always had a feeling this PV could scroo up the HV, but not to this degree and not this far south.

Compared to most, and no one got this right, pros, novices and computer models, you did as well as you could under the circumstances.

We move on and hopefully there's still one or two storms left in us.

BTW - NYC needs 3.1 inches to overtake the number 5 spot, I would have placed those odds at 90-10 2 days ago, probably less than 50-50 right now.

Thanks for the great job as always, we were all much better informed coming here during this event than any other outlet and that's saying a lot.

The silver lining, I may stay ahead of you in the seasonal snowfall race.  Smile
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:19 am

@Yschiff wrote:Did the CMC model come out yet ?

Not yet. I'm leaving for work soon. Someone else will have to update. Maybe Tom if he ever wakes up. That bum. Wink

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Oh what can you do Frank, I always had a feeling this PV could scroo up the HV but, not to this degree and not this far south.

Compared to most, and no one got this right, pros, novices and computer models, you did as well as you could under the circumstances.

We move on and hopefully there's still one or two storms left in us.

BTW - NYC needs 3.1 inches to overtake the number 5 spot, I would have placed those odds at 90-10 2 days ago, probably less than 50-50 right now.

Thanks for the great job as always, we were all much better informed coming here during this event than any other outlet and that's saying a lot.

The silver lining, I may stay ahead of you in the seasonal snowfall race.  Smile 

This makes this storm situation even worse. I need a drink before work  Sad 


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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:20 am

pdubz

I love the picture, that was me about two days ago, and many others on this forum too.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:23 am

@Yschiff wrote:Did the CMC model come out yet ?

I love it, someone that refuses to say no.

An A for perseverance.
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Post by Dtone Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:23 am

We've had alot of snow it cant go our way every time. I am happy letting DC/MD/VA enjoy this time.

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Post by pdubz Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:25 am

yeah now we look to this weekend but will see
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Post by aiannone Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:41 am

CMC is actually slightly north and gets NYC and LI into the moderate snows for a time. Hi res nam does the same.
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Post by aiannone Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:45 am

RUC....This is only out 24hrs though
Final Snow Map, Obs. Thread 3/3 Storm 19820410
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Post by amugs Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:46 am

Oh well every season has one bust and this is it - a shame cause this could have been a good one. The KOD by social media and the Pro Mets DT, JB and now Rayno.

Things get tough as we move forward but it is not out the realm for a couple of more storms.

Frank,NJ, Ace and Sroc great job one again and I don't know about you but this one zapped me tracking.

Hate to say it but the trend seems to have shifted now S&E from N&W we saw almost all winter except with these last two storms IMO. We shall see.....

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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:49 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:QuietAce could get into some good snow, including snowman's mom. Lol

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My mom will be glad to get this snow even though she's 80 years old, she is a snow weenie like the rest of the people on this
forum.  Smile 
Frank don't be to hard on yourself, you and the rest of the knowledgeable people (Ace, Nj, Sroc ,Cp, Mugs and some others) have done an impeccable job this whole winter. None of you have nothing to feel bad about. Kudos to all of you. If this were the Olympics of weather I'd give you all a 10 and a gold medal.  cheers 
By the way, the sun is out at my location.  sunny
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:56 am

Cold rain here im hoping Ace and I get into the snow. Not sure whats we are expecting bc it seems like its less and less
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:24 pm

Ugh, I woke up hoping I was going to be wrong about this.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:30 pm

Makes me cringe thinking that we were looking at a widespread 12-18" storm to be an explosive (potential) end to winter and it just went so downhill in the past couple days and we lost it to PV suppression, that's just bs....
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Post by jimv45 Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:38 pm

It's sucks but I thought this would happen as of Thursday just to much PV suppression and I said it would go farther south hate to be right on this so much promise but that's weather you win some you lose some!

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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:42 pm

How absolutely disappointing to 'end winter', especially this one, on this note. I haven't been this disappointed in a storm in a long time. People should steer clear of me today cuz I'm gonna be in a bad mood... Lol
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Post by Joe Snow Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:46 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Makes me cringe thinking that we were looking at a widespread 12-18" storm to be an explosive (potential) end to winter and it just went so downhill in the past couple days and we lost it to PV suppression, that's just bs....

In MARCH no less.............. Friggen MARCH!!!!
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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:55 pm

OK, ladies and gentlemen, we are not done yet.Even though this storm is a big disappointment, there are still 4 weeks left for possible snow.Frank believes winter is not done yet.

Time to regroup, forget this one and look ahead.I want that 5.5 inches up here to get me to number two on my 25 year snow chart,dammit!!!

I wil not be denied my destiny!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:01 pm

The Euro almost has nothing.

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