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Final Snow Map, Obs. Thread 3/3 Storm

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Post by algae888 Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:02 pm

sroc no way anyone could see this coming. like I said before until they find another way to predict the weather (the models are a big disappointment) this will happen. I appreciate all you and everyone else does to contribute to this board.
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Post by algae888 Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:12 pm

looks like even the first wave passes south of me.
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Post by deadrabbit79 Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:15 pm

@31MBP wrote:I wish I cud get away with totally whiffing at my job and not getting fired on a weekly basis....even tho my last Phart was taken down bc God forbid there are any constructive arguments....admit the whiff fellas and stop taking posts down

You mean like how you totally whiffed with your immature comment? Tool!

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Post by snowday111 Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:18 pm

Any thoughts on tomorrow mornings commute? I'm wondering if schools will be delayed or even closed in central Jersey. I hope not. We already are giving back most of our spring break as it is. I'm worried that due to the timing of the storm, we may end up losing another day.

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Post by Pauledangerously Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:31 pm

@sroc4 wrote:For those of you either new to the board or who do not regularly post, and to everyone else, I will be the first to admit that my forecast busted big time on this one.  I spent alot of time analyzing, studying, engaging in discussion with other enthusiest as well as metorologists on this board and other weather forums to come up with my forecast.  I was fairly certain based on model guidance, satellite imagery and my current knowledge of the atmosphere that my forecast would have held up, at least somewhat.  I take some offense at someone calling it wish casting.  I was taking notice of the SE trends as were many others over the past 2-3 days, but it was my humble opinion that the SE trend was not entirely matching up with the actual observations.  

Although others on this board may have seen the writing on the wall sooner than I, my forecast had support from multiple source including several well respected meteorologists.  Im not sure there are too many out there both amateur and professional who could have accurately predicted what is currently taking place.  That being said I do recognize there are a few, even on this board, who did make such statements a few days ago, but not many.  Accuweather, The Weather Channel, EPAWA, Steve Dimartino, and many other well respected weather outlets have had to adjust their snow maps significantly multiple times over the past few days due to the fact that this was not an easy forecast.

All that being said there is no excuse for anyone new or old, regular poster or occasional contributor to be disrespectful to anyone on this board.  Those of us on this board who post regularly and/or post snow maps etc. do so in our spare time because we love to do it, NOT because it is our jobs.  No one on this site is paid to do so.  We volunteer our time.  In a winter that has seen an exceptional amount of storm systems the track record of the forecasting and discussion on this site has been exceptional.  It has been done so with respect for one another despite differences of opinions along the way.  

Myself personally am all for a little chop busting or ribbing of a busted forecast, but trashing, and disrespectful comments to anyone's thoughts is unacceptable here.  This is a forum for sharing and learning.  Any disrespectful, or childish comments can be taken to FB.  End Rant.


I appreciate you insight. Like I said I mostly lurk cause I have very minor weather knowledge but I have some interest in it. Everyone busted on this storm. You admit to it and dont pound your chest when right unlike pro some meteorologists like Mr Payperforecast Bastardi.Sorry I cant stand him even though he knows his stuff. That being said I hope this is the last till december though I would bet my left nut that it wont be. Im in spring mode and would love to do some activities.
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Post by jtswife Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:44 pm

@sroc4 wrote:For those of you either new to the board or who do not regularly post, and to everyone else, I will be the first to admit that my forecast busted big time on this one.  I spent alot of time analyzing, studying, engaging in discussion with other enthusiest as well as metorologists on this board and other weather forums to come up with my forecast.  I was fairly certain based on model guidance, satellite imagery and my current knowledge of the atmosphere that my forecast would have held up, at least somewhat.  I take some offense at someone calling it wish casting.  I was taking notice of the SE trends as were many others over the past 2-3 days, but it was my humble opinion that the SE trend was not entirely matching up with the actual observations.  

Although others on this board may have seen the writing on the wall sooner than I, my forecast had support from multiple source including several well respected meteorologists.  Im not sure there are too many out there both amateur and professional who could have accurately predicted what is currently taking place.  That being said I do recognize there are a few, even on this board, who did make such statements a few days ago, but not many.  Accuweather, The Weather Channel, EPAWA, Steve Dimartino, and many other well respected weather outlets have had to adjust their snow maps significantly multiple times over the past few days due to the fact that this was not an easy forecast.

All that being said there is no excuse for anyone new or old, regular poster or occasional contributor to be disrespectful to anyone on this board.  Those of us on this board who post regularly and/or post snow maps etc. do so in our spare time because we love to do it, NOT because it is our jobs.  No one on this site is paid to do so.  We volunteer our time.  In a winter that has seen an exceptional amount of storm systems the track record of the forecasting and discussion on this site has been exceptional.  It has been done so with respect for one another despite differences of opinions along the way.  

Myself personally am all for a little chop busting or ribbing of a busted forecast, but trashing, and disrespectful comments to anyone's thoughts is unacceptable here.  This is a forum for sharing and learning.  Any disrespectful, or childish comments can be taken to FB.  End Rant.

I am sorry that someone could be so unappreciative of what you guys do to help all of us. I appreciate all you do and I have learned so much from all of you and you guys are the best.
Ignore those who are stupid.
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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:57 pm

@sroc4 wrote:For those of you either new to the board or who do not regularly post, and to everyone else, I will be the first to admit that my forecast busted big time on this one.  I spent alot of time analyzing, studying, engaging in discussion with other enthusiest as well as metorologists on this board and other weather forums to come up with my forecast.  I was fairly certain based on model guidance, satellite imagery and my current knowledge of the atmosphere that my forecast would have held up, at least somewhat.  I take some offense at someone calling it wish casting.  I was taking notice of the SE trends as were many others over the past 2-3 days, but it was my humble opinion that the SE trend was not entirely matching up with the actual observations.  

Although others on this board may have seen the writing on the wall sooner than I, my forecast had support from multiple source including several well respected meteorologists.  Im not sure there are too many out there both amateur and professional who could have accurately predicted what is currently taking place.  That being said I do recognize there are a few, even on this board, who did make such statements a few days ago, but not many.  Accuweather, The Weather Channel, EPAWA, Steve Dimartino, and many other well respected weather outlets have had to adjust their snow maps significantly multiple times over the past few days due to the fact that this was not an easy forecast.

All that being said there is no excuse for anyone new or old, regular poster or occasional contributor to be disrespectful to anyone on this board.  Those of us on this board who post regularly and/or post snow maps etc. do so in our spare time because we love to do it, NOT because it is our jobs.  No one on this site is paid to do so.  We volunteer our time.  In a winter that has seen an exceptional amount of storm systems the track record of the forecasting and discussion on this site has been exceptional.  It has been done so with respect for one another despite differences of opinions along the way.  

Myself personally am all for a little chop busting or ribbing of a busted forecast, but trashing, and disrespectful comments to anyone's thoughts is unacceptable here.  This is a forum for sharing and learning.  Any disrespectful, or childish comments can be taken to FB.  End Rant.

This 100%. Our track record this winter is excellent, and you wont find a forum any better than this one. We really have a fantastic group of people on this board with no sore spots. And for the record, We don't just draw random colors on a map and send it out, while that would be great and all, as Scott said we out a ton of our time and effort into our forecasts. I appreciate everyone participation on this board and am excited to continue to watch it grow at a rapid pace with many new posters.
Hope everyone has a great night.

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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:15 pm

Lots of convection forming on WV.
Final Snow Map, Obs. Thread 3/3 Storm - Page 3 Avn-l

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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:18 pm

Whoever gets this convection will have impressive snow totals.
Final Snow Map, Obs. Thread 3/3 Storm - Page 3 Us3com10

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Post by mhbaben Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:37 pm

sroc4
I've been lurking since the old 7 chat. the reason is I respect your (and other) contributors. You have nothing to be sorry for. The insight I get here is enormous. Thank you and all contributors
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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:43 pm

Coating of sleet so far here in northern Monmouth

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:50 pm

nothing yet here, radar shows precip south of the city.......looking like we might get skunked up here....

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:04 pm

Myself, Ryan and Scott have done a tremendous job this winter. As well as the other hobbyists who make forecasts and contribute every single day to the discussions. This storm was a bust by everybody. Channel 7 has us in 6-12 yesterday with 12+ into northwestern NJ. If anyone is coming on here to disrespect anybody, your post will be removed and your name will be kept in our moderation back channels. 2nd strike is a suspension. I'll update the long range thread probably tomorrow to see where our pattern stands.

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Post by BklynKel Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:13 pm

The reporting on this site has been amazing during this unpredictable, wild Winter. I thank you for all your hard work and dedication.
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Post by Grselig Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:17 pm

Thanks for all your work. Its been a great winter and only high respect and appreciation for everybody's insights. Even there was no snow it can only be a learning experience. Let's hope Godzilla goes back into training takes some roids and comes back stronger.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:26 pm

Can anyone give me a start time for my area cnj coast
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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:27 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Can anyone give me a start time for my area cnj coast
1-2am For us skins.

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Post by aiannone Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:29 pm

Seeing a lot of people including Steve D saying that according to water vapor imagery the storm should take a slightly northern track. Also what I personally have noticed is the dry air around then NYC metro and LI is not as extensive as thought. Any thoughts from you guys?
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Post by devsman Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:36 pm

I think some people just got really disappointed from this let down. Some times they take it too far by beating up the predictions and models. Knowing that there is hundreds of factors needed for a HECS, sometimes people need to pull back and realize how awesome a winter this has been. Except for us NYC teachers. BTW, Deblasio just announced School is open tomorrow. Damn it! LOL
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:38 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Can anyone give me a start time for my area cnj coast
1-2am For us skins.
is their a bust potential for us ryan or we locked in and what amounts
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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:39 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Can anyone give me a start time for my area cnj coast
1-2am For us skins.
is their a bust potential for us ryan or we locked in and what amounts
Yes high bust potential. Still think we could end up somewhere between 5-6 inches, but right now, i have little confidence in any forecast.

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Post by algae888 Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:41 pm

605 update from upton ..

AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...THERE WILL BE A BREAK WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WHEN
THE PRECIPITATION BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE SECOND WAVE
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE NAM AND HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS TREND
ALSO. SO HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE LOWER POPS HAVE LOWERED THE QPF AND SNOW TOTALS. THIS NOW
GIVES JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER WITH IMPACTS TO THE
MORNING COMMUTE HAVE LET THE ADVISORY POSTED.

the first wave missed me completely. models did not go far enough south. they (models) had me getting some precip with first wave. we'll see how I do with second wave. I think it's likely that I will be entirely dry through this event. I do not think I will ever forget this storm.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:42 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Can anyone give me a start time for my area cnj coast
1-2am For us skins.
is their a bust potential for us ryan or we locked in and what amounts
Yes high bust potential. Still think we could end up somewhere between 5-6 inches, but right now, i have little confidence in any forecast.
thats what i think as well so thats still 6 hours away how is the storm looking iyo
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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:44 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Can anyone give me a start time for my area cnj coast
1-2am For us skins.
is their a bust potential for us ryan or we locked in and what amounts
Yes high bust potential. Still think we could end up somewhere between 5-6 inches, but right now, i have little confidence in any forecast.
thats what i think as well so thats still 6 hours away how is the storm looking iyo
Ok. the HRRR has us in moderate snow overnight. With good ratios we could still pick up those 4-6 inches. The best stuff will still be south of us.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:46 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Can anyone give me a start time for my area cnj coast
1-2am For us skins.
is their a bust potential for us ryan or we locked in and what amounts
Yes high bust potential. Still think we could end up somewhere between 5-6 inches, but right now, i have little confidence in any forecast.
thats what i think as well so thats still 6 hours away how is the storm looking iyo
Ok. the HRRR has us in moderate snow overnight. With good ratios we could still pick up those 4-6 inches. The best stuff will still be south of us.
thanks ace probably wont do anything with school closing until morning
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