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March 7th-10th Storm Threats

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:58 pm

There are a couple of storm threats that need to be watched for this weekend into next week. The first one is for this Friday and the next one is for next Monday. During this week, the pattern is going to undergo a "reload" which means the upper air anomalies that have brought us this colder weather these last couple of days are going to retreat northward and come back to position early next week.

With that being said, since this upcoming Friday, March 7th, comes during this "reload" time, I do not think we will see much in the way of wintry precip. out of it. If there is a storm, I think it would fall mainly as rain.

March 7th-10th Storm Threats Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_16

This is the H5 map for this Friday, and you can see where the PV now is. Way up into the Arctic. There is SOME cold air along the east coast, but it is a very stale air mass (antecedent). The low heights over the southeast coast represent the possible coastal storm forming, but like I said, if it does track up our coast I am thinking mainly rain because of where the PV is now located (pretty big difference from today!!!)

March 7th-10th Storm Threats Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_26

But if we look beyond Friday to next Monday, you can see the PV is now sinking back southward thanks to the -EPO/+PNA combo out west and this time it is not projected to get as far south as it did today, which suppressed our storm system.

March 7th-10th Storm Threats ECMF_phase_51m_small

The MJO is projected to go through phase 8 this weekend into next week, which is conducive for east coast cold and storminess.

So now that the cold air source is back early next week and there is ridging out west, this allows short wave energy to do their work and possibly develop a storm system.

We will see what happens!

Frank

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 03, 2014 9:43 pm

Will post about this tomorrow, disconnecting computer and hopefully next time I turn it on will be in Orlando, FL.
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:09 pm

NAM has the coastal as well, SE of hatteras at 84.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:32 pm

Do you think the water temperatures which are up a little, but still 31-35 degrees from Montauk to jersey coast have any influence in keeping us just cold enough for snow in any of these marginal events?
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:36 pm

Nam at hour 84

March 7th-10th Storm Threats Nam_mslp_pcpn_neus_27

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:38 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Do you think the water temperatures which are up a little, but still 31-35 degrees from Montauk to jersey coast have any influence in keeping us just cold enough for snow in any of these marginal events?

If it's a true Miller A coastal storm where winds come off the ocean, it would definitely help with the dynamic cooling. However, unless this storm system this Friday comes up the coast, I don't think we will see a Miller A this month due to the nature of the pattern.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:39 pm

I like the positioning of the highs at that time frame.

I'm not loving the GLC, they've F'd up a couple of potential storms this season.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:39 pm

This is a very impressive 500mb map from the NAM clearly showing a northern and southern branch. If this holds on other future guidance, I will change my stance about Friday

March 7th-10th Storm Threats Nam_z500_vort_us_20

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:41 pm

This is the 12z Canadian, the model that has been kicking ass lately. It scrapes the area with snow. But look in the Great Lakes and you can see the frontal passage swinging through which kicks the coastal storm out to sea. Timing will be important.

March 7th-10th Storm Threats CMC_MSLPThickQPF_na_f102

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:43 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Do you think the water temperatures which are up a little, but still 31-35 degrees from Montauk to jersey coast have any influence in keeping us just cold enough for snow in any of these marginal events?

If it's a true Miller A coastal storm where winds come off the ocean, it would definitely help with the dynamic cooling. However, unless this storm system this Friday comes up the coast, I don't think we will see a Miller A this month due to the nature of the pattern.

If my memory serves correctly, the noreaster we got in April 96 after the record snowfall winter, NYC was right on top of the rain snow line throughout the event I believe influenced in part by the cold water tempertures at the time.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:43 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I like the positioning of the highs at that time frame.

I'm not loving the GLC, they've F'd up a couple of potential storms this season.

That precip over the Great Lakes is the frontal passage, acting as a possible kicker

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:45 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Do you think the water temperatures which are up a little, but still 31-35 degrees from Montauk to jersey coast have any influence in keeping us just cold enough for snow in any of these marginal events?

If it's a true Miller A coastal storm where winds come off the ocean, it would definitely help with the dynamic cooling. However, unless this storm system this Friday comes up the coast, I don't think we will see a Miller A this month due to the nature of the pattern.

If my memory serves correctly, the noreaster we got in April 96 after the record snowfall winter, NYC was right on top of the rain snow line throughout the event I believe influenced in part by the cold water tempertures at the time.

That would be a good analog if something comes up this April Smile

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Post by Yschiff Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:58 pm

What did the GFS show?

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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Mar 03, 2014 11:00 pm

I'm only out to 84 but it clearly looks like it goes OTS

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 03, 2014 11:01 pm

I'm out to 114. It's out to sea and also pretty warm.

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Post by pdubz Mon Mar 03, 2014 11:04 pm

rather have a miss then warm air we need whats left of the snow pack to help us with cooling
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Mar 03, 2014 11:53 pm

CMC slows the storm about 24 hours compared to 12z and when it gets off the coast of the NC/VA border it gets kicked NE. Precip also looks weaker on the NW side. Doesn't bring any snow to the area like it did at 12z

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Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 04, 2014 8:02 am

In order for this to have a chance the 500mb vorticity in the southern branch needs to close off from the main flow (which is terribly progressive) well before it hits the coast in order to raise heights out ahead of it to steer any surface LP in our direction up the coast.  Even if that happens we have to hope that there is a HP North of the GL in the perfect position for a cold air source, because this system originates from the south with very warm air involved.   In addition to that a cold front will be diving into the NE which looks to act as a kicker keeping the set up as a whole moving W to E.  

 Below is the NAM, GFS, and Euro solns (CMC is very similar in the positioning of the players to the Euro).  Lets be real here the NAM shows a nice soln but cant be taken very seriously after 42 hrs but I using it as an example of what needs to happen to get that Surface LP close enough to matter.  The bottom line the pattern is progressive making this system highly unlikely for us. Again possible, but unlikely IMHO.  

NAM:
March 7th-10th Storm Threats <a href=March 7th-10th Storm Threats Nam_5011" />
March 7th-10th Storm Threats <a href=March 7th-10th Storm Threats Nam_5014" />
March 7th-10th Storm Threats <a href=March 7th-10th Storm Threats Nam_5012" />
March 7th-10th Storm Threats <a href=March 7th-10th Storm Threats Nam_5013" />
March 7th-10th Storm Threats <a href=March 7th-10th Storm Threats Nam_su10" />

GFS most progressive soln:
March 7th-10th Storm Threats <a href=March 7th-10th Storm Threats Gfs_5014" />

Euro/CMC In between:
March 7th-10th Storm Threats <a href=March 7th-10th Storm Threats Euro_515" />
March 7th-10th Storm Threats <a href=March 7th-10th Storm Threats Euro_s13" />

We shall see if anything changes over the next few days but a lot has to change in order for it to work out.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 04, 2014 8:12 am

Thanks Scott, excellent analysis as always.

I won't be getting my hopes up for this one.
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Post by HectorO Tue Mar 04, 2014 8:16 am

Anything can happen in a wild card month like march. But I'm going to go ahead and say this weekend into next week is the last shot I say for something significant to happen. I think this month has a shot at a 4-6 inch event and that's it.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 04, 2014 8:34 am

Potential is there for more than that for next week hector...doesn't mean it pans out though.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by HectorO Tue Mar 04, 2014 8:39 am

@sroc4 wrote:Potential is there for more than that for next week hector...doesn't mean it pans out though.  

Yea, just like there was plenty for us these past 2 weeks but nothing. March becomes even more difficult. I don't think much will pan out. We have to keep an eye on the jet stream also.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:04 am

Hector Potential is the key word.  Potential does not mean it turns out as we expect in our back yards.  The past 2 weeks have produced plenty...just not for our back yard.

Maryland:
New Market – 6.5″
Germantown – 5.9″
Rockville – 5.9″
Edgewater – 5.0″
Reistertown – 5.0″
Severn – 4.5″
Silver Spring – 4.5″
Colesville – 4.1″
Laurel – 4.0″
Perry Hall – 3.3″
University Park – 3.3″

District of Columbia
Bloomingdale NE – 5.0″

Virginia
Ashburn – 7.0″
Reston – 6.0″
Alexandria – 4.5″
Ballston – 4.3″
Reagan Airport – 3.8″
I guarantee our friends to the south were not expecting these totals in March.  Lets not forget that.   I agree that this time of year we have to worry about sun angle and climatology and such which makes things a bit more difficult to produce.  Average snow fall in March for Central park is 3.6" but the highest March total recorded in March for CP was 30.5" in 1896.  Just last year CP recorded 7.3" in March.

That being said the pattern is still set up to produce for us...and that's a fact. Whether it does in our back yards is open for debate.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by HectorO Tue Mar 04, 2014 11:56 am

@sroc4 wrote:Hector Potential is the key word.  Potential does not mean it turns out as we expect in our back yards.  The past 2 weeks have produced plenty...just not for our back yard.

Maryland:
New Market – 6.5″
Germantown – 5.9″
Rockville – 5.9″
Edgewater – 5.0″
Reistertown – 5.0″
Severn – 4.5″
Silver Spring – 4.5″
Colesville – 4.1″
Laurel – 4.0″
Perry Hall – 3.3″
University Park – 3.3″

District of Columbia
Bloomingdale NE – 5.0″

Virginia
Ashburn – 7.0″
Reston – 6.0″
Alexandria – 4.5″
Ballston – 4.3″
Reagan Airport – 3.8″
I guarantee our friends to the south were not expecting these totals in March.  Lets not forget that.   I agree that this time of year we have to worry about sun angle and climatology and such which makes things a bit more difficult to produce.  Average snow fall in March for Central park is 3.6" but the highest March total recorded in March for CP was 30.5" in 1896.  Just last year CP recorded 7.3" in March.

That being said the pattern is still set up to produce for us...and that's a fact. Whether it does in our back yards is open for debate.

Understood, and backyard is what I'm talking about. What happens in Washington DC and other states don't affect me I stated my opinion, and at the end of the month will see exactly how much this area finish off with. Bergen and NYC metro.
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:41 pm

I don't know about you guys, but to me, the 7th-10th storm threat has greatly diminished over the last day or so. The time frame that now appears to be worth watching is the 12th-14th period. It may be too early for a thread on that potential as we have learned this winter to take models over 2-3 days out with a grain of salt. But what do you all think?

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