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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 07, 2014 7:30 pm

The pattern this time around is much more condusive for snowfall compared to the "bust" storm from last week. However, there is still the chance there is no phase for a storm to develop. Read the blog for details to see my thoughts.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2014/03/possible-snowstorm-march-12th-13th.html

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Post by Ronniek Fri Mar 07, 2014 7:42 pm

Great write up frank hopefully this storm happens

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 07, 2014 8:09 pm

Thanks Frank, man so many things to watch for, will be checking in with your losts and not focusing on the models so much this time.  At least not now.  A triple phase that would be nuts, the fact that its a possibility is amazing.
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Post by pdubz Fri Mar 07, 2014 8:09 pm

hopefully the cold air moves in and triple phaser.... one can only dream  Question 
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Mar 07, 2014 8:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Thanks Frank, man so many things to watch for, will be checking in with your losts and not focusing on the models so much this time.  At least not now.  A triple phase that would be nuts, the fact that its a possibility is amazing.

I tollllllld you (triple P!) ;-)

But yeah, as MR. P pointed out, it's unlikely ATM.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 07, 2014 8:29 pm

Lets not count our horses on that one, i'd be very happy with a phase.  The next 2-3 days will narrow things down and I am sure Frank will have much more insight as the days go by.  I am not loosing sleep over this one yet.  I was very upset with the last one watching models at all hours of the night.  I can wait till morning AM to see the Euro.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 07, 2014 8:32 pm

Just a question in the atm unlikely event there was a triple phase would the storm be bigger than the euro shows now, meaning even deeper than 983mb and more qpf??  Which at this time TBD.  And from what I am seeing SO FAR we may have to deal with some potentially damaging winds with this too no? Frank did mention wind.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 07, 2014 8:34 pm

So according to maps I have looked at we are about, as of 18z GFS, 126 hrs out, still quite a ways to go.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 07, 2014 8:42 pm

Oh good grief! Bastardi just started it, no image post but he said most likely area is lower lakes to northern new england, guess he likes the CMC.  Two against one dunno why he goes against the odds.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 07, 2014 8:43 pm

At this stage it seems like anythings possible with the lowest probability being not having a storm. I've noticed today TWC has increased my highs for Wednesday from 33 this morning to 42 now. I don't buy it for a minute and after reading your blog I see that as unlikely. I'm not sure which model they are getting that from.

Thanks as always for making this understandable to the layman and novices like myself.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 07, 2014 8:45 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Oh good grief! Bastardi just started it, no image post but he said most likely area is lower lakes to northern new england, guess he likes the CMC.  Two against one dunno why he goes against the odds.

Another good sign for us. Seriously.
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Post by mako460 Fri Mar 07, 2014 9:25 pm

1010 WINS just said that Tuesday's high temp will be near 60 in the city. Its going to take a lot to get us in snow mode.......................

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 07, 2014 9:50 pm

Really Mako? I don't buy that for a second.  CP your right the opposite effect lol.
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Mar 07, 2014 9:56 pm

I really see this playing out as a torrential downpour with winds, turning into a heavy, wet snow and nailing us in NYC metro. All will depend on track AND intensity of low. The more intense, the more cold air that gets pulled in.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:10 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:I really see this playing out as a torrential downpour with winds, turning into a heavy, wet snow and nailing us in NYC metro. All will depend on track AND intensity of low. The more intense, the more cold air that gets pulled in.

Depending on the track, more so IMO.

If this goes, north of us, over us, or west of us we won't get snow if it's a 950mb low with 80 mph winds
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:11 pm

Holy crap CP, it could be that strong? Im kind a wind man too fascinates me with its power. Put that with snow and oh my!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:12 pm

And where did you see a 950mb low? Or was that sarcasm?
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Post by mako460 Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:17 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Really Mako? I don't buy that for a second.  CP your right the opposite effect lol.

Just relaying what they said. i hope like hell they are wrong.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:22 pm

Wow, im going to have to check that out.  Just for reading remember 2010 March 14th?  Same time frame, dunno if setup is at all the same but nonetheless hurricane force winds (seems somewhat possible if this low really ramps up, or I could be dead wrong your free to correct me), lets hope its snow this time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2010_North_American_winter_storm
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:25 pm

Note its lowest pressure was 993mb according to wiki on the right, sooooo if this one were to be 980mb something I think we would really be in for it.  Whichever type of precip, of course preferably snow.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:29 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:And where did you see a 950mb low? Or was that sarcasm?

Jman, no I was just stating that no matter how strong the low gets, it's not going to bring us snow if it tracks west, north or directly over us.

I have seen nothing about, nor do I expect, nor does anyone expect a 950mb low or 80 mph winds. God forbid.

Unless of course it was all snow.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:33 pm

Yeah notice I posted the 2010 storm which was in the same timeframe (yes albeit rain, ick), 75-85mph winds with a 993mb low, if this one panned out like the euro is showing currently I could only imagine the winds!
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:37 pm

From UPTON twitter feed:

@NWSNewYorkNY: "The potential is there for a significant winter weather event next Wed/Thu. Tropical storm force winds possible, too."

EDIT: 2nd half of that (about trop winds) was added by Eric Holthaus


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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:39 pm

Long range NAM would NOT show a triple phase. Southern stream too far ahead. Not sure if it would even show a phase, too far out for the NAM still

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:47 pm

NAM stands for NOT AT (the) MOMENT.  elephant 
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