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BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:33 pm

okay dokay! I will do so and hope for the best with no exact expectations.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 08, 2014 11:05 pm

If anyone else just saw the 00z GFS they know what I am saying. Shocked
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 08, 2014 11:06 pm

schiff there is not even any point in talking about the NAM as it is not even in range yet.  And even when it comes into the far range which is 84 hrs, it still has a long ways to go.  Be patient and calm and all will hopefully come to fruitation.
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Post by mancave25 Sat Mar 08, 2014 11:19 pm

No what do u mean about gfs

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 09, 2014 1:11 am

Check back on Monday. Literally every model is still different with the phase and storm track. I'm still favoring a rain to snow event.

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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:50 am

Ugh! As of this morning, NWS has me snow to snow/rain to snow.Looking at this point like a slop storm and that is something I do not want.Rather have 15 inches of snow or 2 inches of rain.Roof and gutters are clear now from the nice slow melt and can take a 2 inch rainstorm.

This snowpack, I should say dirtpack, looks terrible.Cover it up with fresh snow or get rid of it with a soaking rain.

NWS model interpretation now is mostly rain coast and city and mix snow N and W.

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Post by pdubz Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:53 am

When we need the P.V it's nowhere to be found  Mad
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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Mar 09, 2014 8:01 am

One of my local Mets said Weds/Thurs we would have snow flurries/showers changing to rain showers with little or no accumulation. I can't wait to see how this works out.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 09, 2014 8:30 am

I do not think it will be little or nothing. Both GFS and Euro show a intense 980s mb low coming off coast.  Where it comes off and how much cold air i think is the question.  Those two models have been consistent in at least showing the storm and strong at that.  But Frank is right we need to check back tomorrow when the pacific storm comes onshore and we will have better sampling.  remember last time we were being shown a huge storm this far out and then it completely changed. so we will see.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 09, 2014 8:30 am

If anything it will start as rain then change to snow. Interior areas look to get hit as currently modeled. The blocking may be too much east-based and not enough west to get the PV to shift a little more south so the cold air reaches the coast.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 09, 2014 8:32 am

One thing I'm noticing is if we do rain, which is looking likely, we could also experience a flash freeze since temps are expected to drop from the 50's to teens in some spots once the storm deepens and pulls down the cold air.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 09, 2014 9:21 am

@SNOW MAN wrote:One of my local Mets said Weds/Thurs we would have snow flurries/showers changing to rain showers with little or no accumulation. I can't wait to see how this works out.

Snow Man :

Where the heck do they find these local Mets that you refer to?

They must peruse the local colleges looking for the meteorology students at the bottom of the class.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 09, 2014 9:26 am

Well that doesnt bode to well for driving.  Would this be overnight Wed, so Thursday morning commute would be the bad one if there was going to be a bad commute?
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 09, 2014 9:28 am

hahahahahahaha CP thats a good one.  I read on accuwx a facebook comment at bottom of most recent article that no one has ever mentioned anything about a storm for Wed. Ummm hello your reading a article about it!  And there are obviously other places too ie. here lol  some people.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 09, 2014 9:56 am

@pdubz wrote:When we need the P.V it's nowhere to be found  Mad

Yeah, last week to much polar vortex, this week not enough. Frustrating to say the least.

I think the HV at least 40 miles north of NYC and snow man area may do ok with this, everyone else it doesn't look that good as currently modeled. However as we know from last week models change, there's still hope, I hope.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 09, 2014 9:58 am

Lets put hope in it and hope it does the opposite of whats expected like last time.  See you all later.
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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Mar 09, 2014 10:01 am

No CP they don't even do that. The one station is owned by the so called "Chief Meteorologist". So he hires his wife and then her brother (who I can't stand because all he does is wine and complain about the cold and snow all winter long. I say move South or out West if you don't like it here. Sorry for the rant.) which neither one is educated in meteorology. But when they give their forecast they make it sound like they can't be wrong and every other Met doesn't know what their talking about. IT DRIVES ME CRAZY ! I've even called their talk back phone line and complained several times, to no avail. I trust Franks forecast 100% more than these Mets, but I like to watch them just for sh*ts and giggles. One time the brother was completely wrong with the forecast,(it was the storm where we ended up with a foot of snow, he called for partly cloudy skies with a chance of flurries) so a store on one of the main highways in Scranton put his name on their electronic billboard and said he should wear a bag on his head the next day on the air for his bad forecast. HE DID ! I can't tell you how happy I was that he had to eat a crow sandwich. All I can say is how thankful I'am for this board and the talented members that give their time and effort to give us an accurate forecast 99.9% of the time. THANK YOU ALL.
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Post by nancy-j-s Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:51 am

Couldn't have said it better, Snow Man!  And keep up your "rants" - they are very entertaining!   Very Happy
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Post by amugs Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:52 am

The 60-48 hours out is when we start to know what will happen like almost all of our storms this winter!

Hopefully next winter is as in the old Bugs Bunny cartoon " and in the corner to my left Da Crusher" ! We got that Greenland block with el Nino and lights out -  wishful thinking but we have this one a possibly a St. Pats day Irish Car Bomb!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 09, 2014 12:17 pm

So this week the damn storm just wants to keep trending further and further north until we're all warmer and wet, instead of white.

Last week we trended further and further south until we were all, with a few exceptions, colder and dry.

We just can't seem to get it right for the last 3-4 weeks.

I'm done for the day, I need a 24 hour cooling off period. I will check in again tomorrow morning and hope for some drastic changes.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Mar 09, 2014 12:43 pm

Just got back from FL. Was monitoring this storm that looked like a potential snowstorm but then saw the north trends and today's models hold that up. Looking like a rainstorm for most and a snowstorm for the far interior. Brought back some of Florida's warmth with me as yesterday was the warmest in a while from what I heard. Looking at the models I personally think there is a good chance winter is over. Doesn't really bother me, Florida was 70s during the day and 50s at night, beautiful. Luckily most of the snow is melted here, some is still around.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Mar 09, 2014 12:52 pm

12z GFS

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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 09, 2014 1:02 pm

LOL, last storm the PV pushed everything south of me.Now, the GFS above rides so far north to give me all rain.

Nothing clicking snow wise in weeks.Have a feeling Tom may be right.

Still plenty of snowpack up here in HV.Maybe that area could get a few inches before it changes to rain.That is, if this north trend holds.

Tomorrow night late will tell the tale on this one.NWS waiting to see what northern branch does before they commit.
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Post by amugs Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:03 pm

BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 5 Misers6

The battle !!!! I will always side with Snowy in winter and late fall!

Heat Miser you can your day in mid-late spring and summer let us have these last days you $#@&!!

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Post by jimv45 Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:09 pm

Doc and CP don't give up this has a chance of some decent snow after rain to start but right now it looks like Albany is going to do real well but Mid-Hudson people will see some I think there will be a southern shift will see!

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