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BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:40 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:I've been favoring a rain to snow scenario for us along the coast. The more north and west you love the less rain you'll see. Details won't get ironed out until Mondayish. Models are still trying to figure out the track of the low. GFS had no phase last night back to a phase this morning. Very inconsistent.

Hopefully we start to see that today. I'm hoping the 12Z continues where the 6z left off.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:45 am

Gfs out to 57 but here's a nice visual to see the pieces at play. Southern stream in TX, northern stream in Pac NW, and the polar energy is over the Hudson

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:51 am

The northern stream energy is still wedging itself into the Rockies as the ridge overtops it. Very unlucky if that's really the case- which I'm starting to believe will be.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:56 am

Hour 87, a piece of the northern steam has broke off from the bunch in the Rockies and moving east. The polar energy is diving in quickly and there may be some southern stream interaction this run.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 08, 2014 11:04 am

It takes awhile for the phasing to come together and the trough to form. Mainly rain on the GFS. Everything happens too far north. Need it to shift south some. From a climatology standpoint, not sure that happens. This could very well end up as mainly rain for many of us.

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Post by Artechmetals Sat Mar 08, 2014 11:04 am

Frank know its hard to tell but in your opinion what type of storm are we looking at ,light event?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 08, 2014 11:07 am

@Artechmetals wrote:Frank know its hard to tell but in your opinion what type of storm are we looking at ,light event?

Rain and wind to ending as some snow. That's my preliminary guess

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Post by sroc4 Sat Mar 08, 2014 11:12 am

Euro over night came in with less phasing because 00z holds back more energy over the rockies which comes in line with most if not all of the other models. Long way to go however. Another wild card is how fast is the s/w trough that comes ashore in the NW conus/SW Canada on the heals of the ridge. That area has been inconsistent as well. It will play a big role in how fast the overall pattern moves west to east. To close and it kicks the ridge east as the held back energy undercuts the ridge and looks to try to flatten it out as it propagates east. The ridge moving east combined with a flattening ridge will lead to a pos tilted trough, lesser of a phase, less QPF, and a warmer soln for most. This has been the trend so far over the last few days at least. A long way to go though.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Artechmetals Sat Mar 08, 2014 11:24 am

But frank is it alot of rain
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 08, 2014 11:47 am

12z Canadian is rain for everyone

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Post by oldtimer Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:44 pm

Wow That dream ended quickly It aint over till its over tho Crazy March-can change on a dime

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Post by sroc4 Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:15 pm

Although current trends are less than ideal Id keep the dream alive until at least Monday. Energy comes ashore then.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:31 pm

Exactly Doc. 12z euro was also a rainstorm but a huge snow maker for inland areas and New England. Ensembles are south of the OP. Nothing set in stone yet. 00z runs Monday night will have the best handle on this all.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:33 pm

Frank what kind of wind speeds might we be talking? I know it's early but any idea? Maybe my dream was a sign of things to come. It was alot!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:45 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Exactly Doc. 12z euro was also a rainstorm but a huge snow maker for inland areas and New England. Ensembles are south of the OP. Nothing set in stone yet. 00z runs Monday night will have the best handle on this all.

The model trends the last 3 weeks have been south and east the last 3 days, as opposed to the north and west we had seen most of the winter. Hopefully in a day or two we see that south and east trend or another one slips us by.

It would be a shame if we didn't have at least one more decent snow event. A winter like this one isn't suppose to end, historically at least, with a snowless March. Also last year I had 24 inches of snow in March and the city saw over 7. So far other than some below normal cold this March isn't cutting the mustard.

It's still early in the month but getting later.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 08, 2014 2:06 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Exactly Doc. 12z euro was also a rainstorm but a huge snow maker for inland areas and New England. Ensembles are south of the OP. Nothing set in stone yet. 00z runs Monday night will have the best handle on this all.

The model trends the last 3 weeks have been south and east the last 3 days, as opposed to the n alien orth and west we had seen most of the winter. Hopefully in a day or two we see that south and east trend or another one slips us by.

It would be a shame if we didn't have at least one more decent snow event. A winter like this one isn't suppose to end, historically at least, with a snowless March. Also last year I had 24 inches of snow in March and the city saw over 7. So far other than some below normal cold this March isn't cutting the mustard.

It's still early in the month but getting later.

I love that saying!!! "Cutting the mustard" -- I haven't heard anyone use that in yearssss besides me. Yay. Okay I'm done.
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Post by SNOW MAN Sat Mar 08, 2014 2:16 pm

Bernies has a new video posted on Accu-wx
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 08, 2014 2:40 pm

I am very concerned about how warm it is today and also the beginning of the week (Tuesday namely).

ATM, I (along with Bernie) don't see enough cold air being pushed down to make this a good snow for NYC metro.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 08, 2014 3:20 pm

I saw euro dang 980mb off of cape, may not be cold enough but it will be one heck of a wind and rain storm may compare to march 14 2010.  Still hoping trends further south but it trended stronger wow.
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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 08, 2014 3:20 pm

I thought we had the high to our north that was going to inject artic air
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 08, 2014 3:34 pm

Just saw Raynos video he doesn't believe it will dip down he has it going straight east.  BUT I think he made this video before the 12z Euro because he does not mention the bomb the 12z shows.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 08, 2014 3:36 pm

soul may still be a wild ride, albeit we want it to be snow but either way if Euro pans out will be one heck of a storm!  Just needs to go south bit more with the cold air coming a bit further south.  But yeah 60 on Tuesday sheesh.
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Post by mako460 Sat Mar 08, 2014 3:52 pm

Jman, I said 60 on Tues. yesterday and u laughed, lol. Lets just hope for some arctic air invasion on Tuesday night.
















































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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:04 pm

yes mako, i wasn't laughing at you, I just had not seen that in the forecast but I just hadn't looked.  It has happened I have seen temps drop 40 degrees overnight before.
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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 08, 2014 5:24 pm

I know we have a long way to go and shouldn't rely on anyone model right now. but did anyone see the 18z gfs. it has a bomb off of the southern New Jersey coast. it still looks warm at the surface but the upper layers are cold enough for snow. it shows heavy rain to heavy snow. definitely further south than 12z. hopefully this is a trend and the other models will follow. will not get my hopes up but it sure does look nice on the map.
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