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March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion

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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:20 am

Ok Im going to start this thread.  Here is what we have so far as I see it.  First thing to show here is the CMC, Euro, GFS at 12z on Sat.  Take note of the positioning of some of the players.  Keep in mind the GFS has the most south and progressive soln, but also has a progressive bias as a whole.  
March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion <a href=March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion Gfs_5015" />
March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion <a href=March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion Cmc_5013" />
March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion <a href=March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion Euro_516" />

So what happens next?  Next image is at 00z on Monday.  On the GFS because the southern stream energy is so far out ahead of the northern piece you get little to no interaction between them.  As a result the southern piece ejects well ahead and strings itself out.  Whereas, the Northern piece actually splits itself into two pieces indicated in Red on the map.  The main piece cuts off from the main flow (cutoff Low) and drifts S and W.  The second piece continues along but as you can see the flow along the coast is too progressive and there is no intereaction between the N and S streams.  The other smaller area I have circled in black to the north is a 3rd piece of energy that has no interaction with the rest of these peices because all the energy is scattered about.  
March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion <a href=March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion Gfs_5017" />

Now take a look at the other extreme here, the CMC.  Instead of the southern piece stringing out ahead of the northen stream and the Northen piece splitting into two pieces 1 of which cuts off and holds back in the SW like depicted on the GFS the northern branch and southern branch combine and begin moving east together.  As a result the trough begins to sharpen which slows the whole flow toslow down which allows the now 3rd piece of energy in the north to interact and eventually complete the phase and a huge hit.  
March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion <a href=March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion Cmc_5014" />

The Euro is the in between soln.  It has the southern stream energy out ahead of the northern piece but does not string it out as much as the GFS.  It does however hold back energy from the the northern piece but not quite as pronounced as the GFS.  The one piece does drift S and W but doesnt quite cut off like the GFS does.  This soln looks to just miss the phase and ultimately lead to a LP that shoots to our south, but is very close to the CMC idea.  
[img]March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion Euro_518[/img]

So the one thing that I haven't discussed yet is the positioning of the PV.  If you look back above the PV is positioned very similar between the CMC and Euro, whereas the GFS has the center of circulation positioned significantly further west as of MONDAY at 00z.  With that in mind I believe that since both the CMC and Euro are handling the PV similarly the Euro is much closer to a hit than it is to a miss like the GFS.   The biggest problem that I am seeing at the moment here is that the ensembles are showing a more suppressed soln.  Even the CMC ens are south of its operational.  Red flag in my book.  Still have a long way here but as of now I think this is going to be another teaser and stay just to our south.  I think we will have some of the energy cutting off and holding back in the SW as is shown in the GFS and Euro soln, but I think the Southern energy is not as fast and progressive and as weak as the GFS is showing.  I also see the PV being situated more like the CMC/Euro has it come Monday at 00z which does leave a window for the 3rd piece of energy to dive in a dig and at least partially phase with the southern branch.  The key will be just how strong and how far ahead of the northern energy come saturday is the southern energy going to be?  If enough of it interacts with that first piece of N energy (See map of 12z Sat) and the PV moves east like is shown on the CMC/Euro between Sat and Late Sunday/early Monday then there is room for the trough to dig and sharpen and a LP can move up the coast.  If the GFS is right then the positioning of the PV supresses everything and keeps everything strung out and fast/progressive.  We shall see.  Again my current thinking is a soln similar to the Euro right now which brings things close...VERY close, but there is still a long way to go.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:30 am

Agree, OP CMC and DGEX alone are not great for us. The EURO lost the further north solution last night, it could certainly come back but looks like another dry and cold period meanwhile someone further south gets wintry precip before winter cedes to spring IMHO.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:30 am

Great write up Doc.

It's always good to know what kind of mood I will be in this weekend, right now I would say depressed, but I'm not shooting the messenger it's always better to know the facts.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:39 am

So with all of that two main points.
1) If the PV is too far west like GFS no chance for a trough to develop or a phase to occur. Strung out energy everywhere and OTS with it all. If PV is further East like CMC/Euro then a window for a system to ride up the coast exists.

2) IF the PV does in fact position itself favorably is the southern energy to far ahead of the N energy by Saturday which will leads to some of the N energy splitting and too much energy get held back in the SW. The more energy that is held back between sat and Sunday the less likely the trough is to dig so regardless of the PV position the flow remains progressive out ahead and a southern soln develops like the Euro.

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Post by docstox12 Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:43 am

After reading Doc's great analysis, I'd have to say this is a long shot at best.Things just haven't come together this past month.Everything is north or south of us.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:49 am

Honestly I don't think this is a long shot at the moment. The timing of the southern energy on the Euro coming ashore on Sat is not off by much. If it comes ashore 6-8 hrs later then there is much more interaction and a trough can develop. Both the CMC and Euro have been consistent in its handling of the PV. As long as we don't see a trend to a further west positioning of the PV the window for things to develop remains.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:51 am

It seems like the CMC is the only model progressing the southern stream energy east, whereas the other model dig it into the southwest US and and fail to make a phase.

Great writeup sir

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:54 am

sroc4 wrote:Honestly I don't think this is a long shot at the moment.  The timing of the southern energy on the Euro coming ashore on Sat is not off by much.  If it comes ashore 6-8 hrs later then there is much more interaction and a trough can develop.  Both the CMC and Euro have been consistent in its handling of the PV.  As long as we don't see a trend to a further west positioning of the PV the window for things to develop remains.  

On that note I shall hold out at least a ray of hope.
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 13, 2014 9:02 am

Sroc - great write up and analysis in between patients.

The CMC has been hot the last few weeks and looking at the maps you posted - dam it is it very close once again so we wait until the 48 hours before to see what will happen which has been the norm this season.

Are we certain those Canadians didn't do a quick revamp while we slept cause it has been pretty spot on the last few weeks with out storms.

Putting out to positive vibes from the Snow Weenie Camp for one last hurrah!!

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 13, 2014 9:21 am

hey mugs and everyone, am rooting for this one even though this thread bummed me out a bit but I styill have hope. Its still there as of now so won't doiscount it until there are no signs anymore. I play till the bitter end or joyful end.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 13, 2014 9:26 am

amugs wrote:Sroc - great write up and analysis in between patients.

The CMC has been hot the last few weeks and looking at the maps you posted - dam it is it very close once again so we wait until the 48 hours before to see what will happen which has been the norm this season.

Are we certain those Canadians didn't do a quick revamp while we slept cause it has been pretty spot on the last few weeks with out storms.

Putting out to positive vibes from the Snow Weenie Camp for one last hurrah!!

Not with 3/6 storm
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 13, 2014 9:29 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
amugs wrote:Sroc - great write up and analysis in between patients.

The CMC has been hot the last few weeks and looking at the maps you posted - dam it is it very close once again so we wait until the 48 hours before to see what will happen which has been the norm this season.

Are we certain those Canadians didn't do a quick revamp while we slept cause it has been pretty spot on the last few weeks with out storms.

Putting out to positive vibes from the Snow Weenie Camp for one last hurrah!!

Not with 3/6 storm

Tom:

Why must you always ruin any hope we have with palpable facts. JK
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Mar 13, 2014 9:53 am

The models indifferences are occurring in the first 48 hours of the runs. That makes today's 12z and tonight's 00z runs crucial for a big storm. If the EURO @ GFS don't at least show marked improvements by then, I'll have some serious doubts on this threat coming to fruition. On a side note, its so damn cold outside, my car windows are frozen shut!
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Post by pdubz Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:10 am

Let's see what NAM shows
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:13 am

pdubz wrote:Let's see what NAM shows
The SREFS just came in amped, expect the NAM to follow suit.
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Post by pdubz Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:19 am

Ggem is the cmc right? If so why the different names
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:53 am

NAM looks like it would be a big hit if extrapolated however its the NAM over 72 hours so doesnt mean much. Need to see EURO and GFS trend favoribly, tread with caution.
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Post by docstox12 Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:57 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
amugs wrote:Sroc - great write up and analysis in between patients.

The CMC has been hot the last few weeks and looking at the maps you posted - dam it is it very close once again so we wait until the 48 hours before to see what will happen which has been the norm this season.

Are we certain those Canadians didn't do a quick revamp while we slept cause it has been pretty spot on the last few weeks with out storms.

Putting out to positive vibes from the Snow Weenie Camp for one last hurrah!!

Not with 3/6 storm

Tom:

Why must you always ruin any hope we have with palpable facts. JK

CP....You've got to be cruel to be kind,LOL!
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 13, 2014 11:04 am

Tom give me a friggin break the CMC called the last 3 out of 4 beats the H out of the crappy GFS Model so far - IMO. he made three out four free throws but the one he missed we are going to bring up - come on man.

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Post by pdubz Thu Mar 13, 2014 11:09 am

Even if they all show a hit we can't get too happy until it consistently shows a hit through Saturday
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Mar 13, 2014 11:11 am

I'm waiting til Saturday....just too many inconsistencies, makes me crazy....

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Post by docstox12 Thu Mar 13, 2014 11:15 am

I'm with you,Dunz.

The last month, these long range models flash big snowstorms only to fizzle out the day of.Have to assume that trend is in place and it will happen again.Hopefully, that trend is broken, but I'll believe it when I see the radar a few hours before the storm hits.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 13, 2014 11:27 am

Im not into buying solutions this far out. How often has a storm that looks promising in this 100hr range panned out? Next to none especially in the past month. I would love to see the 20-25" CMC storm pan out but the fact remains its very unlikely especially this far out.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 13, 2014 11:59 am

GFS takes a sudden turn to CMC/NAM/DGEX, however one run isnt changing my cautious approach to this storm.
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Post by pdubz Thu Mar 13, 2014 12:04 pm

GFS is a massive change but only one run let's hope it holds
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