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March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion

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essexcountypete
Math23x7
MinaMak
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Mar 14, 2014 10:11 am

9z SREFs are very nice but still a day out of decent range.

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Post by deadrabbit79 Fri Mar 14, 2014 10:12 am

For what it is worth, and I am by no means any good at this forecasting thing or reading radar images or anything but, if i am reading the CMC correctly, it currently has snow from hours 76 through hours 105. Is that possible? Am I seeing that correctly? I usually do not post things like this but i couldn't help it this time. Sorry if that sounds very amateurish!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 14, 2014 10:39 am

Wow 12z NAM looking awesome, came south and centered perfectly for me to be in jackpot, I know its still not in perfect range but its doing well so far : ) Andf the fact that frank even mentioned roidzilla being a remote possibility is exciting, godzilla would be fine with me though shoot, even a 6-12. But lets go for a real bang!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Mar 14, 2014 10:40 am

NAM wont be in good range until tomorrow, a good run but still way ton early because it LR NAM.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 14, 2014 10:41 am

WOLVES1 wrote:What is the h5?

500 mb heights.

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Post by Taffy Fri Mar 14, 2014 10:43 am

I saw the weather this morning and knew the old crew would be right on this!

Good luck guys, I'd like one more blow out like March 15th/16th of o7
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 14, 2014 10:45 am

I have to say, the NAM trended toward the GFS/euro. If that trend continues, it leads to a much weaker system with minor snow accumulations. It breaks the storm into two. First part is a hit and the second goes out to sea.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 14, 2014 10:45 am

jmanley32 wrote:Wow 12z NAM looking awesome, came south and centered perfectly for me to be in jackpot, I know its still not in perfect range but its doing well so far : )  Andf the fact that frank even mentioned roidzilla being a remote possibility is exciting, godzilla would be fine with me though shoot, even a 6-12.  But lets go for a real bang!

You'd be happy with even a 6-12?

Come on Jman you should know better, I'd sign for that right now. Anything more, if it happened consider it a gift.
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Mar 14, 2014 10:59 am

NAM still shows a foot from Philly to NYC, happy to see it come south from 6z cause that showed sleet and rain

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:04 am

Oh crap I put the NAM model analysis posts in the wrong thread. Oh well.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:06 am

NAM in this range often overdoes QPF, do not expect a ton. Overall its more similar to GFS and EURO with 2 part system, Frank just mentioned this and so did I yesterday.
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:12 am

The only thing about the NAM I care about is that it didn't hold or go north of 6z run, I much rather a GFS/EURO solution then what the 6z NAM said. Plus, GFS still shows 6-8" which I don't think is really minor in March

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:36 am

GFS in terms of H5 looks different than the NAM. It's digging the energy more and holding it back. It's not ejecting it east as much. We'll see what this run leads to.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:40 am

Frank NAM still looks like alot small swatch of 12-14, thats plenty and yes anything above a 6-12 would be a gift lol.
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Post by Yschiff Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:42 am

Bernie Rayno updated video http://t.co/sxcqYv4xnF

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:43 am

Is that a good thing frank not ejecting it?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:43 am

GFS is ugly. Obnoxiously digs the energy into Mexico. What the hell?

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:43 am

March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion - Page 11 Na_gfs_borders_overlay

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:44 am

I forgot can't post H5 maps anymore. Dang

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:45 am

Ugg great, another flippity flop couple days grrrr lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:47 am

We need to depend on the overrunning snow that develops from the strong gradient promoting frontogenesis. GFS does show that. I don't think we can get a coastal up here. NAM was all overrunning snow anyway. Not a coastal.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:48 am

GFS is just a coating to an inch.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:50 am

The changes on the GFS every run are comical. Such a bad model...

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:52 am

Ohh that is ugly nothing for NYC way south, still not too worried yet, or should I be?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:53 am

So what do we have going for us model wise then for a snow event thats significant
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:56 am

UKMET is also digging into Mexico. So the GFS has support and is a feasible solution.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:58 am

skins the NAM 12z came in with a good dump but as we know is not reliable at this range, GFS sucks 12z, dunno about Euro and CMC as they haven't come in yet.
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