March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
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essexcountypete
Math23x7
MinaMak
devsman
aiannone
Abba701
dad4twoboys
oldtimer
Taffy
deadrabbit79
crippo84
WOLVES1
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SNOW MAN
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CPcantmeasuresnow
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36 posters
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
9z SREFs are very nice but still a day out of decent range.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
For what it is worth, and I am by no means any good at this forecasting thing or reading radar images or anything but, if i am reading the CMC correctly, it currently has snow from hours 76 through hours 105. Is that possible? Am I seeing that correctly? I usually do not post things like this but i couldn't help it this time. Sorry if that sounds very amateurish!
deadrabbit79- Posts : 176
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
Wow 12z NAM looking awesome, came south and centered perfectly for me to be in jackpot, I know its still not in perfect range but its doing well so far : ) Andf the fact that frank even mentioned roidzilla being a remote possibility is exciting, godzilla would be fine with me though shoot, even a 6-12. But lets go for a real bang!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
NAM wont be in good range until tomorrow, a good run but still way ton early because it LR NAM.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
WOLVES1 wrote:What is the h5?
500 mb heights.
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
I saw the weather this morning and knew the old crew would be right on this!
Good luck guys, I'd like one more blow out like March 15th/16th of o7
Good luck guys, I'd like one more blow out like March 15th/16th of o7
Taffy- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
I have to say, the NAM trended toward the GFS/euro. If that trend continues, it leads to a much weaker system with minor snow accumulations. It breaks the storm into two. First part is a hit and the second goes out to sea.
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
jmanley32 wrote:Wow 12z NAM looking awesome, came south and centered perfectly for me to be in jackpot, I know its still not in perfect range but its doing well so far : ) Â Andf the fact that frank even mentioned roidzilla being a remote possibility is exciting, godzilla would be fine with me though shoot, even a 6-12. Â But lets go for a real bang!
You'd be happy with even a 6-12?
Come on Jman you should know better, I'd sign for that right now. Anything more, if it happened consider it a gift.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
NAM still shows a foot from Philly to NYC, happy to see it come south from 6z cause that showed sleet and rain
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
Oh crap I put the NAM model analysis posts in the wrong thread. Oh well.
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
NAM in this range often overdoes QPF, do not expect a ton. Overall its more similar to GFS and EURO with 2 part system, Frank just mentioned this and so did I yesterday.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
The only thing about the NAM I care about is that it didn't hold or go north of 6z run, I much rather a GFS/EURO solution then what the 6z NAM said. Plus, GFS still shows 6-8" which I don't think is really minor in March
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
GFS in terms of H5 looks different than the NAM. It's digging the energy more and holding it back. It's not ejecting it east as much. We'll see what this run leads to.
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
Frank NAM still looks like alot small swatch of 12-14, thats plenty and yes anything above a 6-12 would be a gift lol.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
Bernie Rayno updated video http://t.co/sxcqYv4xnF
Yschiff- Posts : 139
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
Is that a good thing frank not ejecting it?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
GFS is ugly. Obnoxiously digs the energy into Mexico. What the hell?
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
I forgot can't post H5 maps anymore. Dang
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
Ugg great, another flippity flop couple days grrrr lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
We need to depend on the overrunning snow that develops from the strong gradient promoting frontogenesis. GFS does show that. I don't think we can get a coastal up here. NAM was all overrunning snow anyway. Not a coastal.
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
GFS is just a coating to an inch.
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
The changes on the GFS every run are comical. Such a bad model...
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
Ohh that is ugly nothing for NYC way south, still not too worried yet, or should I be?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
So what do we have going for us model wise then for a snow event thats significant
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
UKMET is also digging into Mexico. So the GFS has support and is a feasible solution.
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Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion
skins the NAM 12z came in with a good dump but as we know is not reliable at this range, GFS sucks 12z, dunno about Euro and CMC as they haven't come in yet.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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