March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion

I'm hearing the NAM has caved but I'm @ work. Can anyone verify this?

I am hearing that also  

Im only at hour 24. so I dont know yet.

Looks weaker in the central US at hr 30, uggg

Still looks in similar position though.

Im going to let the run play out, but so far it looks like crap

ace yup way far south I think I am done with this one. Now all the models have it way south, doubt very much they would all swing back north 2 1/2 days (not even) out.

Lets just say the data at 12z was most likely correct.
Horrid run. H5 sucks, the surface sucks, the energy in the Sw sucks and is held back more and even digs further south. The ridge out west sucks and the vort crashing into the pacific NW does its job and btw sucks.
No one north of Trenton sees meaningful precip that would accumulate which sucks.

NAM is about 3-6 for me south. 6+ extreme south Jersey. C-1 inch line splits Monmouth county.

ace you dont think this is valid being that all the other models show south? Wouldn't it be the dreaded trend for the NAM to cave like this?

jmanley32 wrote:ace you dont think this is valid being that all the other models show south?  Wouldn't it be the dreaded trend for the NAM to cave like this?

I dont understand what you are asking?

Hey well don't complain bout 3-6 man I get zilch up here in yonkers suxs. Not even close would have to go several hundred miles north again.

you said lets assume the 12z was correct, you think this is wrong?

jmanley32 wrote:Hey well don't complain bout 3-6 man I get zilch up here in yonkers suxs.  Not even close would have to go several hundred miles north again.

I was just saying what the model output was verbatim.

on instantwxmaps has south jersey with 12-14, and central around a foot.

jmanley32 wrote:you said lets assume the 12z was correct, you think this is wrong?

I dont, i think a suppressed solution is looking most likely. The ridging in the west wont allow it. Nothing has changed the pattern to make this storm differ this than the others we have seen this month. So why wont this turn out any different from the rest.

oh ok not that you felt that was the most likely one. So I am guessing this pretty much leaves no chance for NYC or suburbs any longer right?

Great well onto other things, will see what Frank says when he is home from work but stick a fork in it for me i guess.

jmanley32 wrote:oh ok not that you felt that was the most likely one.  So I am guessing this pretty much leaves no chance for NYC or suburbs any longer right?

IMO its not likely

Temps are absolutely frigid Monday on the NAM, SNJ would have fantastic ratios with the 850's, and surface.

Since the 12Z runs, all the models are in agreement now for a southern track (GFS, NAM, CMC), so the new runs are likely sampling similar updated guidance.

Interestingly, though, the NAM & CMC were both significantly more north on yesterday's 0Z runs and showed an incredible storm, but those were probably just teasers! Fun to look at though

Better not be cold Monday, if it is in NY it better be snowing! If its not gonna snow here I want the warm weather I have to be outside alot for my job and I am tired of being frozen with no snow.

Upton still hasn't completely disregarded it in fact their discussion has not changed all day kinda odd. Are they waiting on something? It just updated 10:42pm

WHY do we keep losing our storms @ day 3....WHY, I want to know WHYYYYYYY (crying hysterically......)

soul i feel ya, but what can we do. we need a miracle now for here.

SoulSingMG wrote:WHY do we keep losing our storms @ day 3....WHY, I want to know WHYYYYYYY (crying hysterically......)

Another question to ask: Why were two of our biggest snowstorms (1/21 and 2/3) not on the models at day 3?

every model run from last nights 00z thru todays runs have shown a south push of the PV and the HP to our north. it continues on the 00z gfs and rgem. that is the main reason this storm is south. it's getting squashed by the HP. it's hard to believe that in march we had 2 storm south of us. usually that happens in January. I guess the -epo is to blame. it is strong this year and maybe to strong bringing bitter cold to us. maybe the models are overplaying the cold air I don't know but its just hard to believe its going to snow in Virginia and north Carolina again.