March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion

Mets2695 wrote:12z GFS brings the precip shield further north again due to it depicting a slightly weaker high. Now brings the moderate precip 20mi south of NYC

The .1" line in 6 hours is not moderate, it's over.

CMC is 2-3" for all of CNJ, UKMET is 4-6", and GFS is about 2-4". People not too far south of NYC could see a couple inches, unless the Euro is correct

I'm in the 1-2 range according to Mt. Holly. I would welcome one more delayed opening! 

NjWeatherGuy wrote:This storm is done with, the ridge is breaking down due to that plains low and it's just progressive garbage. HP is in textbook spot but the flow is just causing it to shear out and head east. It will snow in the same exact areas that got hit in 3/3, climo says snow axis should shift from south to north as winter draws to a close but doesn't mean anything in reality. After this storm the cold air shuts off and a spring pattern takes hold, so their snow won't be around much anyway and they missed out on all the storms earlier in the season we cashed in on. Overall was a pretty good winter.

I agree this event is done for most, and this was a pretty good winter. For the HV where I had 70 inches it barely beat the 65 I got last year it was an ok winter but not great. For many places, NYC south and east was a very good year, for CNJ coast maybe their best ever.

Terrible last month though and that's what will stick out for me at least until I get over these last 3 misses which will admittedly take awhile.

I did have a a lot if fun tracking though, this is one great group I'm not even gonna start naming names because you all know who you are. In addition to the regulars we also brought in some great new additions this year who added great insight and analysis. I hope you all stay with us.  

Now that I decided to not name names let me mention at least a few. Special thanks to Frank for setting up this forum and for sharing his knowledge with us. Also Tom thanks for coming back you're analysis and Docs is superb. Ryan and Janet also great job. And to my brothers from another mother Docstox, Mugs and Snow man thanks for all the laughs I'm not going anywhere just won't be around as much.

Cp last weeks have been bad but give it at least a week more before throwing the towel in for the winter. You know as well I do where we live we can get accumulating snow up till early april i know the odds go down but still have a shot so lets wait at least till its warm before you give up. On a side note if there is no snow hurry up and get warm.

SREF comes north a decent amount, then NAM goes south lol

This is pretty much a nowcast situation, but I can see how an inch or so of snow could get as far north as Newark area. It's pretty much a non event.

Yeah, I'm still somewhat interested since SREF shows about 3" for me, while NAM has nothing. With a tight gradient a small shift could be the difference between 0" and 3" and the timing would affect the morning commute so worth watching anyway

NAM is interesting for Wednesday though, that would be some heavy rain/sleet

Holy NAM, wants to bring the second piece up coast into monster low 993 mb with heavy snow over NYC area, I know its in fantasy land but at this time anything to track even if it fails won't upset me any longer. instant wxmaps puts down 2-5 inches from hrs 81-84 only! If the NAM were to verify that second system (not likely but not impossible) we would get bombed!

Actually the GFS came much further north with it too (still OTS) but much more north and stronger first, this could be something to watch maybe,  What do you guys think?

essexcountypete wrote:[hands on ears] LALALALALALA IM NOT LISTENING LALALALALALA

Jman

I believe Pete's post from above sums up my feelings for any Wednesday event even though he wrote it regarding any north trends in our latest non event. If I see snow falling Wednesday I will start tracking then. I'm so freakin annoyed still about the last month, if I could water board, place them on a rack, boil them in hot oil, or if I could just physically hurt some of these models right now I believe I would take great pleasure in doing so. And I'm a non violent man.

I was thinking that, also, CP how these models just totally blew this and the March 3 storms.They made Rayno look bad IMO as he stuck his neck out making maps showing us getting blasted with snow.Not blaming him just kidding around with the KOD.

Seriously, though, whoever designs and writes the code for these computer models has to really sit down and re-design the programs based on these trends that occured March 3 and for this storm.

docstox12 wrote:I was thinking that, also, CP how these models just totally blew this and the March 3 storms.They made Rayno look bad IMO as he stuck his neck out making maps showing us getting blasted with snow.Not blaming him just kidding around with the KOD.

Seriously, though, whoever designs and writes the code for these computer models has to really sit down and re-design the programs based on these trends that occured March 3 and for this storm.

agree!! I do not remember a time like this last month where three storms showing huge amounts of snow (12+) 3 to 7 days out and we got nothing. I have been tracking weather for over 40 years nothing like this ever happened. I can see where a model is showing a minor or moderate event and we get nothing but I do not understand how we go from a foot plus to zero. if any other industry had a computer system like these weather models, to forecast future trends and make predictions about their industry, that industry would collapse.

algae888 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:I was thinking that, also, CP how these models just totally blew this and the March 3 storms.They made Rayno look bad IMO as he stuck his neck out making maps showing us getting blasted with snow.Not blaming him just kidding around with the KOD.

Seriously, though, whoever designs and writes the code for these computer models has to really sit down and re-design the programs based on these trends that occured March 3 and for this storm.

agree!! I do not remember a time like this last month where three storms showing huge amounts of snow (12+) 3 to 7 days out and we got nothing.  I have been tracking weather for over 40 years nothing like this ever happened. I can see where a model is showing a minor or moderate event and we get nothing but I do not understand how we go from a foot plus to zero. if any other industry had a computer system like these weather models, to forecast future trends and make predictions about their industry, that industry would collapse.

Well put Algae, that's why I wish these Models could feel, I really would like to hurt them.They have certainly inflicted enough pain on us the last month.

The killer has been how they have all turned abruptly on day 3, from 1 foot to 1 inch or less. Poor soulsing has been waking up at 2pm thinking he was getting 12-18 inchesof snow to find the 12Z's giving him nothing. I think he may have a lawsuit pending against the NAM, GFS, CMC and EURO for mental suffering and anguish. Actually I'm not a lawsuit kind of guy but I think we should start a class action lawsuit against all of these models. No disrespect to any and all Veterans out there whom I love and respect, but I think these models have given me PTSD this month.

The upcoming storm is a far cry from what it was modeled to be just 2 days ago on models such as the GGEM and even the GFS to some extent. It's always important to see "what happened" in the upper levels to understand the change on guidances.

The biggest thing is the unorganized phase. I've seen the PV being blamed again for this storm, but I would have to disagree with that. There is a tremendous amount of energy being left behind in Mexico, as shown below, and for that reason there is #1: no phase and #2: a positively tilted trough all the way through. It's a southern stream system driven along the thermal gradient.

Lastly, we are in a progressive flow with the -EPO breaking down and a constant +NAO. It's a very unimpressive system and doubt the mid-Atlantic sees anything of significance out of it.

Winter close to being over? It would be a shame to go out with no more snow

The NAM is wrong with the 2nd storm, has absolutely no support, not even from most of it's SREF members. The NAM is just trolling us.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:The NAM is wrong with the 2nd storm, has absolutely no support, not even from most of it's SREF members. The NAM is just trolling us.

12z NAM is OTS, looks like it's caved already

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

algae888 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:I was thinking that, also, CP how these models just totally blew this and the March 3 storms.They made Rayno look bad IMO as he stuck his neck out making maps showing us getting blasted with snow.Not blaming him just kidding around with the KOD.

Seriously, though, whoever designs and writes the code for these computer models has to really sit down and re-design the programs based on these trends that occured March 3 and for this storm.

agree!! I do not remember a time like this last month where three storms showing huge amounts of snow (12+) 3 to 7 days out and we got nothing.  I have been tracking weather for over 40 years nothing like this ever happened. I can see where a model is showing a minor or moderate event and we get nothing but I do not understand how we go from a foot plus to zero. if any other industry had a computer system like these weather models, to forecast future trends and make predictions about their industry, that industry would collapse.

Well put Algae, that's why I wish these Models could feel, I really would like to hurt them.They have certainly inflicted enough pain on us the last month.

The killer has been how they have all turned abruptly on day 3, from 1 foot to 1 inch or less. Poor soulsing has been waking up at 2pm thinking he was getting 12-18 inchesof snow to find the 12Z's giving him nothing. I think he may have a lawsuit pending against the NAM, GFS, CMC and EURO for mental suffering and anguish.  Actually I'm not a lawsuit kind of guy but I think we should start a class action lawsuit against all of  these models. No disrespect to any and all Veterans out there whom I love and respect, but I think these models have given me PTSD this month.

These models would plead insanity and the judge would accept that plea based on what we have seen!

algae888 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:I was thinking that, also, CP how these models just totally blew this and the March 3 storms.They made Rayno look bad IMO as he stuck his neck out making maps showing us getting blasted with snow.Not blaming him just kidding around with the KOD.

Seriously, though, whoever designs and writes the code for these computer models has to really sit down and re-design the programs based on these trends that occured March 3 and for this storm.

agree!! I do not remember a time like this last month where three storms showing huge amounts of snow (12+) 3 to 7 days out and we got nothing.  I have been tracking weather for over 40 years nothing like this ever happened. I can see where a model is showing a minor or moderate event and we get nothing but I do not understand how we go from a foot plus to zero. if any other industry had a computer system like these weather models, to forecast future trends and make predictions about their industry, that industry would collapse.

Algae, if my trading technical indicators performed as poorly as these weather models the last month, I'd be out there looking for a job!

Absolutely right on that industry collapse.Dismal!

yep sanchiz, figured it would but still looked nice for two runs, oh well again lol. Its cold and boring, not what I want when is it going to be 60 and sunny?

You guys underestimate the weather models, the people that designed them and coded for them are incredibly smart and spent tons of time on it. They have more data in them then all mets on the planet combined, it is incredibly difficult to predict an essentially unpredictable earth system, it is possible to look at the current parameters and create a forecast that goes out a couple days and be somewhat accurate but notice that is where the models are at their best, as they get further and further into the future more than 3 days the margin of error for human forecast and model forecasts becomes larger and larger. Makes sense? Yes because they were designed by humans? We all know the models biases and we should us them to make better forecasts and not bite on storms too far out when the play on the model's biases. It's not just the models screwing up, it's us too!

All 12z models have come a little further north, doesn't mean anything for people up north, but CNJ could definitely see 2-4"

NjWeatherGuy wrote:You guys underestimate the weather models, the people that designed them and coded for them are incredibly smart and spent tons of time on it. They have more data in them then all mets on the planet combined, it is incredibly difficult to predict an essentially unpredictable earth system, it is possible to look at the current parameters and create a forecast that goes out a couple days and be somewhat accurate but notice that is where the models are at their best, as they get further and further into the future more than 3 days the margin of error for human forecast and model forecasts becomes larger and larger. Makes sense? Yes because they were designed by humans? We all know the models biases and we should us them to make better forecasts and not bite on storms too far out when the play on the model's biases. It's not just the models screwing up, it's us too!

"That's a fact Jack!"

Have you Coded NJWeatherGuy ???

Mt holly upped totals, WSW up to ocean county, WWA for Monmouth and Middlesex points SW

Sanchize06 wrote:Mt holly upped totals, WSW up to ocean county, WWA for Monmouth and Middlesex points SW

Yes Sanchize just saw the warning for me here in Ocean county looks like we are going to see accumulating snow which is great we will pass the 60 inch mark for the season and what a season its been