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March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion

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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Mar 16, 2014 3:32 pm

Yep, looks like a good couple of inches, maybe a little more. The one model that didn't really come north at 12z was the NAM lol. I would expect it to come more north in a few minutes with the 18z run

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 16, 2014 3:54 pm

This may catch a lot by surprise here a lot think little or no accumulation. It may have a tough time sticking because of it being warm the last two days.
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Post by aiannone Sun Mar 16, 2014 4:12 pm

New Mt. Holly Discussion
TODAYS 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE (YOU GUESSED IT) COME BACK TO A WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION,
SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAD A FEW DAYS AGO. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD A TIER OF COUNTIES NORTH/WEST TO THE (PREVIOUS) ADVS AND WARNINGS. SNOW TOTALS WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES HIGHER WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. THE STORM WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON THE MORNING RUSH FOR THE METRO AREAS...SO PLAN ON PLENTY OF EXTRA TRAVEL TIME MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL START AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING OVER THE DELMARVA AND ARRIVE A FEW HOURS LATER ACROSS SRN NJ AND SE PA. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ. SUB-ADV AMOUNTS (1-2 INCHES) WILL FALL ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS COUNTY.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Mar 16, 2014 4:21 pm

Hmmmmm. Can she trend further north for 18 & 00z runs?? Can NYC GET SOME?!!!
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 16, 2014 4:23 pm

can anyone post some of the latest maps
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Post by GreyBeard Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:34 pm


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TIME PERIOD IS THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP AND PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN HEAD NORTHEAST.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE AREA. FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC AND SOUTH SHORE OF
LONG ISLAND...1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND
CMC AND AROUND A TENTH FOR THE 12Z GFS. HARD TO IGNORE THAT THE
12Z NAM HAS STILL COME IN DRY...BUT HAS PUSHED THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD FARTHER NORTH. VERY SHARP CUT-OFF IN PRECIPITATION FIELD. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS SOMEWHAT. BETWEEN HALF
AN INCH TO 1 INCH FOR LONG ISLAND AND MUCH OF NYC. STATEN ISLAND
MAY SEE JUST OVER AN INCH. WORST CASE SCENARIO...UP TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THINGS TO CONSIDER ARE THE EXTREME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
ON THE ONSET AND OF COURSE THE PRECIPITATION FIELD WHEN SNOW DOES
START TO FALL.


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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:20 pm

I'm not so mad we aren't getting this storm. The latest GFS doesn't have anywhere getting over 6", not even DC.
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Post by ClimateControl Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:46 pm

Alan Casper from NJ 101.5 FM radio has issued the followig forecast for tonight:
Snow develops during the evening. Heaviest snow falls after midnight. Cloudy. Snow ends in the morning.
Expected accumulation:
8-10 inches in Cape May County
4-6 inches in Atlantic, Salem, southern Gloucester and southern Camden counties and most of Ocean County
2-4 inches along the New Jersey Turnpike corridor including Monmouth County
1 inch or less for the rest of the state roughly north of I-78

The NWS at Mt. Holly has issued a Winter Storm WARNING for Ocean County, NJ also!

Anyone have any thoughts on this???
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:00 pm

Im really skeptical that ocean county get 4-6 inches Im not a big fan of Alan Casper
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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:42 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Im really skeptical that ocean county get 4-6 inches Im not a big fan of Alan Casper
Agreed, im expecting 1-3 inches.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 16, 2014 8:44 pm

The board is quiet im looking forward to tracking all storms spring,fall,winter,summer
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Post by algae888 Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:39 am

cape may nj and parts of Delaware already have 8" going to end up close to a foot. I guess low pressure was strong enough for them. i'm at 19* DP 0 and not a flake. air is to dense and cold and dry. alotttttt of moisture to south. just couldn't get here
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Post by algae888 Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:53 am

DC 7" balt 8" areas close by as much as 14. man this storm had some juice. but as bad as we did philly only had a trace as of 2am.
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:55 am

Ok. Blah. Can we talk about that Euro signal for 8-10 days from now?  Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy 
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 17, 2014 6:22 am

Man this turned out to be a big storm for the mid Atlantic and southern NJ. Ace and skins, now much you guys get? Probably 4-6+

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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 17, 2014 6:52 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Man this turned out to be a big storm for the mid Atlantic and southern NJ. Ace and skins, now much you guys get? Probably 4-6+
Not so much, closing in on about 3.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:19 am

3 to 3.5 here still snowing
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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:20 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:3 to 3.5 here still snowing
We are probably getting 1-1.5 a hour right now.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:22 am

I would saywe def see 4 to6
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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:26 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I would saywe def see 4 to6
The continued snowfall might pressure the district to close. I know many schools to our south have.
The snows coming to a end quick to our west, id say we have a a hour to a hour and a half left.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Mar 17, 2014 8:03 am

Well Ace we def broke 60 a heck of a season.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 17, 2014 8:26 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Well Ace we def broke 60 a heck of a season.

Still stuck at 69.9 inches here, I can't even get a lousy .1 inch to finally get to 70.

To be in this tight a battle with the CNJ coast is downright embarrassing. Great season for you guys skins and Ryan probably your best ever, definitely in your top 3.

I'm only 5 inches ahead of last year but 70 inches of snow is still above normal so I shouldn't complain, but I still do and will.
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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 17, 2014 8:52 am

Final measure is 3.2 inches here. Tough one though, lots of blowing and drifting. Extremely fine light High ratio snow.

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Post by ClimateControl Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:00 am

Brick, NJ-near coast: Just measured 4.5 inches with higher drifts. Very powdery snow. As of 9AM, still light to moderate snow falling. Temp. here is 25 degrees.
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Post by ClimateControl Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:02 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Im really skeptical that ocean county get 4-6 inches Im not a big fan of Alan Casper

Alan Casper was pretty much on target with his snowfall totals.
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