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March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion

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Post by Quietace Thu Mar 13, 2014 5:21 pm

The EURO Ensemble mean is wetter and way north of OP. Individual members are new to Wxbell.
Lots of different solutions in here.
March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion - Page 4 Eps_2-10
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Mar 13, 2014 5:34 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Yeah, these last two storms make me feel like a net on a ping pong table.....south----north.Don't tell me I'm going to see it going way south again.
After the last two debacles, it would be a very bitter pill to swallow if it happened a third time in a two week span no less. Good improvements with the 12z runs today; looks like the models for the most part want to eject the energy out. The only remaining issue is the polar vortex. If its in the right position, we could be looking at a PD 2 event. however, if its too strong, the storm will be sheared out to our south. I think we will have a much better handle by tomorrow night's 00z. Sleepless nights ahead! Sleep 
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Post by Quietace Thu Mar 13, 2014 5:35 pm

@amugs wrote:Guys,

We need the ridge in the west to not get flattened out or else it will stay south so this is something we have to look at - the GGEM showed this at its 0Z run with a nice spike in the PAC = big storm for us - if we lose this we may see some snow but DC and SNJ get the storm - or we need the PV to do some dirty work IMO. The 12z GGEM showed the PAC ridge flattening out a bit

Hey I think we are close to an explosive set up that can yield us a nice if not Grand Finale Storm - just have to watch these next runs to see if we keep that western ridge - for once his past month please give us the storm and not the DC - SNJ folks - Jesus!

Right, if the Energy entering on the West coast de-amplifies the ridge fast enough, it wont allow the interaction between streams, and then the system will take a different direction then modeled.
Of course (this has been discussed before) the Southern Stream energy and how much is left behind or how much exits the vort that is left behind is also very important.
I believe if the the ridge on the west coast stays amplified longer, less southern stream energy will be forced south and left behind and more will be grabbed and involved with our system, and you get a northern stronger solution, but that's only if.  
Then we also have more energy diving down from the Alberta region into the GL as our storm enters our area that could allow for some increased energy driven into the system (Scott over-viewed the H5 this morning and all its problems.)
I think their is Lots of energy that, possibly, is giving models a hard time focus on, which could be giving H5 its sloppy un phased look right now on models. I think that's a possibility, or this system could just be sloppy and disorganized.
Im still just observing models at the moment. They are still too erratic right now for me.

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Mar 13, 2014 5:57 pm

Lee Goldberg said it looks like we are 'on the northern fringe of a coastal storm' on Monday, possible period of snow.
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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 13, 2014 6:07 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Lee Goldberg said it looks like we are 'on the northern fringe of a coastal storm' on Monday, possible period of snow.

yeah!! get your snow blowers ready!! we are going to get a doozy of a storm. my prayer is please GOD let lee and other mets keep down playing this storm. accu weather and twc have me partly cloudy highs in the 30's and low 40's for sunday and Monday. we have a real good chance now!lol
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 13, 2014 6:12 pm

DGEX oh how I wish you are right.  Its prob not so dont your hopes up but hot damn it sure is nice to look at.  
March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion - Page 4 F126

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Post by Quietace Thu Mar 13, 2014 6:18 pm

@sroc4 wrote:DGEX oh how I wish you are right.  Its prob not so dont your hopes up but hot damn it sure is nice to look at.  
March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion - Page 4 F126
Its been very Constant in showing weather porn like that the last day or 2. Keep these runs coming. lol
Wheres Tom with the snow map from accuweather pro. I want to see it.

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Mar 13, 2014 6:21 pm

@sroc4 wrote:DGEX oh how I wish you are right.  Its prob not so dont your hopes up but hot damn it sure is nice to look at.  
March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion - Page 4 F126

Woahhhh, well hello HECS! Nice to meet you!  elephant 
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Post by Guest Thu Mar 13, 2014 6:36 pm

looks nice.

Now whats up with the ads on firefox frank? wasnt like that a couple of weeks ago. cant click on thread pages.

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Post by Guest Thu Mar 13, 2014 6:39 pm

works on internet explorer no problem. but im a firefox user mainly

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Post by pdubz Thu Mar 13, 2014 6:45 pm

Nothing wrong on chrome but you can download Adblock on Firefox
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 13, 2014 6:47 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:DGEX oh how I wish you are right.  Its prob not so dont your hopes up but hot damn it sure is nice to look at.  
March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion - Page 4 F126
Its been very Constant in showing weather porn like that the last day or 2. Keep these runs coming. lol
Wheres Tom with the snow map from accuweather pro. I want to see it.

This is very unlikely, this is not the first main wave, the DGEX has a meh event there like a 2-5 type deal like the 18z GFS, this run takes the second storm (which all other models either don't have or it goes wayyy OTS), I'm not going to bother with the snow map because I am very confident this won't happen.
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Post by Quietace Thu Mar 13, 2014 6:48 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:DGEX oh how I wish you are right.  Its prob not so dont your hopes up but hot damn it sure is nice to look at.  
March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion - Page 4 F126
Its been very Constant in showing weather porn like that the last day or 2. Keep these runs coming. lol
Wheres Tom with the snow map from accuweather pro. I want to see it.

This is very unlikely, this is not the first main wave, the DGEX has a meh event there like a 2-5 type deal like the 18z GFS, this run takes the second storm (which all other models either don't have or it goes wayyy OTS), I'm not going to bother with the snow map because I am very confident this won't happen.
I know that Tom. I just wanted to see how much it printed out verbatium. lol

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 13, 2014 6:52 pm

UGH

March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion - Page 4 3_13dg10
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 13, 2014 6:54 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:UGH

March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion - Page 4 3_13dg10

BOOK IT!!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Mar 13, 2014 6:59 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:DGEX oh how I wish you are right.  Its prob not so dont your hopes up but hot damn it sure is nice to look at.  
March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion - Page 4 F126
Its been very Constant in showing weather porn like that the last day or 2. Keep these runs coming. lol
Wheres Tom with the snow map from accuweather pro. I want to see it.

This is very unlikely, this is not the first main wave, the DGEX has a meh event there like a 2-5 type deal like the 18z GFS, this run takes the second storm (which all other models either don't have or it goes wayyy OTS), I'm not going to bother with the snow map because I am very confident this won't happen.

Tom, it will literally be Monday AM, all signs showing a 12+ snowfall for us, and you'll still be saying 'I am done. I just can't. I don't believe it's gonna happen. There is no way. I am not bothering with that. HIGHLY unlikely. I will not be fooled again...'  lol!  I know you're burned out from all these false hopes man, I am too. I'm just playing with ya. But let's give this storm a little positive love and force these damn models NOT to trend SOUTH (or even North cuz you never know lol)...Let's close this winter with the bang we deserve!
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Post by Guest Thu Mar 13, 2014 7:04 pm

 Anyway, being a long time lurker I would like to hand it to Frank on what a great job he did in building this site up in a little over year or so. You see i am also from the old abc 7 board so i know this is sorta like a break away board, and its really grew in that time and now its up there with Amwx and accuweather.forums.. We can give waaxino some credit for that too Smile

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 13, 2014 7:13 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:DGEX oh how I wish you are right.  Its prob not so dont your hopes up but hot damn it sure is nice to look at.  
March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion - Page 4 F126
Its been very Constant in showing weather porn like that the last day or 2. Keep these runs coming. lol
Wheres Tom with the snow map from accuweather pro. I want to see it.

This is very unlikely, this is not the first main wave, the DGEX has a meh event there like a 2-5 type deal like the 18z GFS, this run takes the second storm (which all other models either don't have or it goes wayyy OTS), I'm not going to bother with the snow map because I am very confident this won't happen.

Tom, it will literally be Monday AM, all signs showing a 12+ snowfall for us, and you'll still be saying 'I am done. I just can't. I don't believe it's gonna happen. There is no way. I am not bothering with that. HIGHLY unlikely. I will not be fooled again...'  lol!  I know you're burned out from all these false hopes man, I am too. I'm just playing with ya. But let's give this storm a little positive love and force these damn models NOT to trend SOUTH (or even North cuz you never know lol)...Let's close this winter with the bang we deserve!

All I am saying is the DGEX solution is very VERY unlikely. DGEX has a bias of taking tail end energy of a system and blowing it up the coast, EURO sometimes does it too but it doesn't have that solution. Getting the one wave to work out is hard enough with March climo and the PV stirring the pot in addition to a midwest storm that could push up heights, there are way too many factors and it will take the next couple days to hone in on the solution. Keep in mind with the ridiculous 2nd wave the DGEX shows (and how unlikely it is) is still did back off the snow, it had a huge swath of 18+ all the way up I-95 and within 50 miles each way, we are seeing waffling, CMC backed a little south as did the GFS at 18z meanwhile the EURO bumped north and the CMC and EURO ensembles are slightly north of OP as well. There is no way to put stock in any solution yet and as I have said if these storms have a hard time working out in January it's exceptionally harder in March. Basically it's like that toy we had when we were younger where you need to fit the correct shape in the right hole, however we're blindfolded and spun around a few times first, in other words, a crapshoot ATM. Like I've said and Frank as well we will know a lot more tomorrow 0z.
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Post by Quietace Thu Mar 13, 2014 7:19 pm

Honestly the DGEX is so bad, it shouldn't even run and waste space and time on the NCEP super computer.  
Though its fun to observe and see its outrageous solutions, most solutions like the 18z, isnt viable.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 13, 2014 7:23 pm

@Quietace wrote:Honestly the DGEX is so bad, it shouldn't even run and waste space and time on the NCEP super computer.  
Though its fun to observe and see its outrageous solutions, most solutions like the 18z, isnt viable.

Pretty much, the only storm it called this year was 2/3 when it was at 84 hours. BTW found this online, pretty funny and very relevant to today.

March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion - Page 4 Scumba10

Ultimately it doesn't matter what my opinion or your opinion is, the weather will do what it wants. The earth system is far too complex for any human made program to accurately understand, especially as it gets farther into the future, the margin of error grows exponentially. Honestly, my approach to not putting stock in any solution until we get very close and consensus is a good way to avoid disappointment. Just saying to those who scream massive snowstorm 4 days out.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 13, 2014 7:24 pm

Hey all did I hear the term HECS?  Is this really a possibility, isnt that considered like 2 feet?  From what I just read looks like there is probably no answer at this time but was just curious as to what the main thinking was at this time.  The DGEX, which I havent even heard of (sorry) does that should 7.5-10 inches per 6 hrs, if so holy crap! But I see everyone biting at that model thats its no good so what is the euro and cmc showing for snowfall amounts?  I am also going to post on something I saw in far long range on the other thread, way to far out though.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 13, 2014 7:26 pm

Looking at ECM EPS which just updated on pro, SLP position is essentially exactly the same except more strung out, precip is slightly further north with the overrunning thus slightly higher precip amounts. However I don't like the fact that we're looking at a LP sliding off Hatteras, needs to come north more to make this a significant event, light northern edge precip won't cut it in Mid-March.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 13, 2014 7:30 pm

So I guess its just a waiting game, we can't have any fun and look at what models are showing for totals?  At this point I don't think we can jinx much so I think we should all relax and have fun with it looking at pretty colors and all.  If not I will go along with what everyone else wants but I miss seeing the wxbell snowmaps and wishing and hoping, if I can't see anything theres really nothing to talk about for me.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 13, 2014 7:52 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:So I guess its just a waiting game, we can't have any fun and look at what models are showing for totals?  At this point I don't think we can jinx much so I think we should all relax and have fun with it looking at pretty colors and all.  If not I will go along with what everyone else wants but I miss seeing the wxbell snowmaps and wishing and hoping, if I can't see anything theres really nothing to talk about for me.

Not sure why you like those maps because they're almost always a letdown. I hate seeing the CMC show 30" of snow in the area and then trend to nothing, I would rather not see the clown maps at all, IMO tomorrow night we can actually begin to use the snow maps but not yet. Wishing does nothing but setup for disappointment. You should take a reasonable approach to this.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 13, 2014 7:59 pm

Ok NJ tomorrow or even Sat is fine.  I just thought we might pull like last nights and never look at much of anything.
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