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*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:32 pm

Mt Holly - shows what the good Jr DOC (SROC) our highly esteemed weather analyst said earlier
for those who haven't read the Mt Holly discussion recently and see this

DETAILS ARE FAR FROM
BEING ETCHED IN STONE AS THE MODELS DONT EVEN AGREE ON WHICH
FEATURE IS GOING TO BE TROF "THE DIGGER". THE ECMWF IS STILL
EMPHASIZING A SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER SIBERIA,
WHILE THE GFS AND CAN GGEM ARE TYING THEIR HORSES TO THE CLOSED
LOW IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN NORTH OF SIBERIA. REGARDLESS OF WHICH ONE
YOU LIKE, BOTH FEATURES ARE GOING TO MAKE A PASS CLOSE TO THE
NORTH POLE AND THERE ARE NOT MANY RAOB SITES THAT WAY. WE ARE
PROBABLY GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE 12Z RUN ON SATURDAY TO
GET THESE TRIGGERS INTO THE DENSER RAOB SOUNDING NETWORKS

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:50 pm

Mt. Holly has much more information thatn Upton I have always noticed that. Siberia, really? WOW talk about far away!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:53 pm

Dang anyone have a link to site for CMC? The site I use didn't load it correctly as usual so I can't see it. I am stuck at work inside so I might as well have some fun looking at the wx lol, wish I could be outside but it isnt all that warm here in NYC.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:58 pm

Keep in mind guys and gals as sexy as this image is we have a long way to go.  Ideal track this far out almost never works out.  Note: this is not the ideal track.  This track is actually just a tad S and E of the BM.  Need to be just inside the BM to get my buddies up in the HV and WNJ/NNJ.  
*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm <a href=*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Cmc10" />
[img]*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Cmc_pr11[/img]


Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:03 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:01 pm

Yes I understand sroc, but wow nontheless. Wether its wrong or not cool to see. Thx
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Post by SNOW MAN Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:07 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Keep in mind guys and gals as sexy as this image is we have a long way to go.  Ideal track this far out almost never works out.  Note: this is not the ideal track.  This track is actually just a tad S and E of the BM.  Need to be just inside the BM to get my buddies up in the HV and WNJ/NNJ.  
*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm <a href=*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Cmc10" />
*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm <a href=*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Cmc_pr11" />
 
Hey doc don't forget about the only member in EPA.  Sad 


Last edited by SNOW MAN on Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:07 pm

gfs ensembles show a lot more hits today. from what i can see only 2 misses. and one cutter a day later. i do not have the mean but would guess its west of OP
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:09 pm

Wow, thats crazy for eastern MA, I will be bummed if my friends over there get those 20 inch totals IF that happened, it would need to come about 200-300 miles west to get us on the outer part of that heavier stuff, thats a long haul.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:10 pm

snowman I will wish this 500 miles west is that enough? lol
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:16 pm

@SNOW MAN wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Keep in mind guys and gals as sexy as this image is we have a long way to go.  Ideal track this far out almost never works out.  Note: this is not the ideal track.  This track is actually just a tad S and E of the BM.  Need to be just inside the BM to get my buddies up in the HV and WNJ/NNJ.  
*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm <a href=*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Cmc10" />
*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm <a href=*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Cmc_pr11" />
 
Hey doc don't forget about the only member in EPA.  Sad 

Sorry Snow. I did forget about you. That being said if you get in on the good stuff all the way by you then that usually means I will be rain here on E LI. I think if we can jackpot NYC then we all get a win out of it.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by SNOW MAN Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:18 pm

Jman if you think it would help please do. Right now I'll take anything, this has been such a boring period weather wise. I'm just tired of cold and dry, cold and dry. UGH !!!
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Post by SNOW MAN Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:27 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@SNOW MAN wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Keep in mind guys and gals as sexy as this image is we have a long way to go.  Ideal track this far out almost never works out.  Note: this is not the ideal track.  This track is actually just a tad S and E of the BM.  Need to be just inside the BM to get my buddies up in the HV and WNJ/NNJ.  
*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm <a href=*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Cmc10" />
*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm <a href=*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Cmc_pr11" />
 
Hey doc don't forget about the only member in EPA.  Sad 

Sorry Snow.  I did forget about you.  That being said if you get in on the good stuff all the way by you then that usually means I will be rain here on E LI.  I think if we can jackpot NYC then we all get a win out of it.  

Now that sounds good to me Doc. Now lets hope all the ingredients come together to give us snow weenies what we've been waiting for - a nice snowstorm.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:35 pm

If I may use another example not involving Kate Upton.

I have a better chance of being named People magazines sexiest man alive, than this storm has of taking the perfect track to bury us all in snow.

I have nothing to back this view up other than 6 weeks of disappointment, frustration, and anger.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:36 pm

Euro came in west , trying not to get excited but dang is it a powerful storm. 850mb winds have range of 50-100mph! No more discussion about wind lol Just a observation, never seen a pink dot on the map.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014032012®ion=USA&var=GRD_850mb&hour=144
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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:38 pm

i am only on a free site but todays euro takes low from s Carolina coast to just east of cape cod while bombing out. lines are so tight and storm so wound up i cant make out pressure. looks really good.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:38 pm

It also moved up to 26th I see morning.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:39 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Euro came in west , trying not to get excited but dang is it a powerful storm.  850mb winds have range of 50-100mph!  No more discussion about wind lol  Just a observation, never seen a pink dot on the map.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014032012®ion=USA&var=GRD_850mb&hour=144

I will not be suckered in again, I will not be suckered in again, I will not be suckered in again.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:40 pm

algae at 144 hrs its 968 mb!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:41 pm

LOL CP, relax if we get it we get it if we dont we don't at this point thats how I see it. Yes I am a snow weenie but I also can't go into cardiac arrest over snow(snowicane in this storm) and neither should you be cool and we will see. A west movement was good for Euro.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:43 pm

Now that itsw over land a bit in MA, I am just waiting on JB to post a snow map heh
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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:43 pm

cp help me im starting to get real excited. its still 5-6 days out and we got burned so many times lately. please talk me out of this excitement.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:45 pm

Here is a interesting thing I thought of, if we think that the best case senarious never pan out long range then why was the Euro so spot on with Sandy? Was that just a major chance thing or does it happen often enough that we can give long range any accountibility? BTW wheres Frank today?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:47 pm

algae, put yourself in the middle excited but not so much that you get upset, thats where I am at. Here is the site I use if you look at the bottom right it shows the lowest pressure, when there are many items on the map that doesnt work but in this senario it is the only thing that could be that low.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014032012®ion=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=144
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:47 pm

@algae888 wrote:cp help me im starting to get real excited. its still 5-6 days out and we got burned so many times lately. please talk me out of this excitement.

Breath in....breath out...breath in...breath out. Its only a contraction....it will pass. False labor. right now contractions are still about 24hrs-48 hrs apart. Alot can change in that time. Baby isnt coming today so no sense getting excited about it. Breath in....breath out. lol


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:49 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Here is a interesting thing I thought of, if we think that the best case senarious never pan out long range then why was the Euro so spot on with Sandy? Was that just a major chance thing or does it happen often enough that we can give long range any accountibility?  BTW wheres Frank today?

jm its been my experience like sroc said when we are in the sweet spot 5-6 days out it rarely pans out. we know the storm is going to shift one way or another and probably not going to end up like todays runs. ok im starting to talk myself down. but boy i want to believe!
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