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*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:46 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:Euro Control - only if it was tomorrow night - wow - folks.

Like I posted early in the day from WPC, SPC and Holly - we need to wait until Sat 6z/12z runs to get a better sampling of the energy but for now this is pure eye candy

*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm - Page 5 Post-334-0-93827000-1395347232

Geez it's like something out of somebodys fantasy storm thread.

I will not get suckered in, I will not get suckered in, I will not get suckered in.

Where's Tom when I need him?

EURO control has been god awful this year, had many storms like this, concerned about this being mid life crisis bs
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:48 pm

5 days and counting CP - Tom I saw getting on a flight to FLA as I am awaiting my boarding call - delayed 1 hours.

Speaking of, only 64% of flights in Jan and Feb were on time in NY airports - LGA, EWR, KEN ports - on time being 14 minutes from prescribed departure or landing times

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:51 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:well mugs who knows maybe itwill show something even crazier or the same tomorrow night, thats Friday though, I thought we were waiting till Sat night for a better handle?

Yes that is pretty much Sat afternoon is when we start to get better sampling of the energy from the models. But Sat 18Z and 0Z runs will have good data to pool from for these projections as well

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:07 pm

Storm thread necessary tomorrow if models continue threatening trends, IMO.
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Post by essexcountypete Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:17 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

I will not get suckered in, I will not get suckered in, I will not get suckered in.


I will also be repeating your manta CP. Taking a few deep breaths as well.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:28 pm

Pete,

Very similar to your hands over ears technique during supposed last minute northward trend during the last storm that wasn't.

Since the models turned abruptly on day 3, the last 3 nonstorms, I'm not buying any model till we are 60 hours away. I still can't stop myself from looking though.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:31 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Pete,

Very similar to your hands over ears technique during supposed last minute northward trend during the last storm that wasn't.

Since the models turned abruptly on day 3, the last 3 nonstorms, I'm not buying any model till we are 60 hours away. I still can't stop myself from looking though.

I would argue 48 hours away, it's been terrible lately and I'm not allowing myself to get sucked in either.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:35 pm

Guys this storm threat is totally real. Tom your mistaken about the GGEM ens. There many huge hits.  In addition just got done looking over the euro ensembles member and on the first 25 thre were 16 huge hits .  If Frank doesn't start one tonight I will start a thread in the morning after looking over the 0z

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by essexcountypete Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:37 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Pete,

Very similar to your hands over ears technique during supposed last minute northward trend during the last storm that wasn't.

Since the models turned abruptly on day 3, the last 3 nonstorms, I'm not buying any model till we are 60 hours away. I still can't stop myself from looking though.

Yeah, had to take my hands of my ears. The wife was getting pissed.

Not as pissed as she's gonna be if we get a major storm though, but it sure would put a nice bow on this winter.

Ok, breathing.....

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:40 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Guys this storm threat is totally real. Tom your mistaken about the GGEM ens. There many huge hits.  In addition just got done looking over the euro ensembles member and on the first 25 thre were 16 huge hits .  If Frank doesn't start one tonight I will start a thread in the morning after looking over the 0z

I concur. I can't remember, in recent history, THAT many ens members showing THIS kind of storm.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:53 pm

sroc what happened with the threads, i saw your snowmap holy crap 16 of them are like 15-25 inches, but now its locked and went over here?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:53 pm

anyway to see those snow maps closer up?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:58 pm

So I drive home from work now everyone is talking like me ha since seeing those 16 out of 25 models thats incredible. Keep the maps coming later tonight see if it stays the same or even more come in, im home tomorrow oh god lol, im gonna be glued to the computer lol
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:06 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Guys this storm threat is totally real. Tom your mistaken about the GGEM ens. There many huge hits.  In addition just got done looking over the euro ensembles member and on the first 25 thre were 16 huge hits .  If Frank doesn't start one tonight I will start a thread in the morning after looking over the 0z
Misses?? there maybe a couple but this is pretty good IMO  not saying it WILLHappen but a 963 off obx is frickin insane as a few members show, dam it why could this not be Monday night then Tom would be throwing around his snow magic!!

*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm - Page 5 PNM_panel_144

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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:16 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:sroc what happened with the threads, i saw your snowmap holy crap 16 of them are like 15-25 inches, but now its locked and went over here?

jman, you can still view the locked threads, just no more posting there....

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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:19 pm

GFS still way OTS

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:21 pm

yeah i just wondered why it got locked, mugs holy crap on #13! And thats again alot of ensembles showing hits. I concur with sroc and soul, this is looking more feasible to me now, dunno bout you guys but as stated that many showing such a major storm is not usual.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:22 pm

@amugs wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Guys this storm threat is totally real. Tom your mistaken about the GGEM ens. There many huge hits.  In addition just got done looking over the euro ensembles member and on the first 25 thre were 16 huge hits .  If Frank doesn't start one tonight I will start a thread in the morning after looking over the 0z
Misses?? there maybe a couple but this is pretty good IMO  not saying it WILLHappen but a 963 off obx is frickin insane as a few members show, dam it why could this not be Monday night then Tom would be throwing around his snow magic!!

*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm - Page 5 PNM_panel_144

Mugsy I  I love you this ensemble map. Can you post the link?

BTW I had no idea that there were two threads.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:22 pm

Jman joined three months ago actually and a week and he has 300 more posts than I who joined in the basic inauguration of this board. Being said he may surpass the 2K milestone by Tom night since he is off tomorrow.

You may set a record tha t may never be touched like Ripken, Sosa, bonds oh wait those last two I should delete for use of roids, Jman ur not roiding on us man, we r family here!

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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:24 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:GFS still way OTS

It is def still a strongly feasable soln.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:27 pm

LOL where that come from mugs, can't help it my posts would be less, but everytime i post something i think of something else i had to say and something else i had to ask. and FYI, I have deleted posts before people have seen them because I decided against them, dunno how high that would gotten me. Nope no roids (maybe a roid you know what though next week!)
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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:28 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:GFS still way OTS

It is def still a strongly feasable soln.  

Yep, it's what I think will happen actually. Coastal areas could get some decent snow, but I don't think a big storm for the whole area yet.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:29 pm

shhhh sroc the models are getting good dont scare them away witht the negativity!lol
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:34 pm

by looking at the GFS (yeah yeah OTS, ho[ping its playing its little games) wind maps it seems the highest winds (which btw instantwxmaps still have around 90+mph), sorry doc, and no I wasn't mad I totally understand being affraid I was too when I lived at home during hurricane Bob huge maples.  So if it were to go far west we may be on the worst side of the winds too, ok I agree not so good, would be wild though.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032018&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=141
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:38 pm

And mugs I don't think ill make 150 posts tomorrow, gonna sleep in, have work with Verizon as they installing new service so will be without net for while will probably miss 12z. By next week yeah probably with my new "obsession" lol maybe I need to treat myself. Once I am a therapist I am will to do very cheap group rates to get my foot in the door lol.
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