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*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:55 pm

SROC - here are the CMC ensembles http://meteocentre.com/models/cmc_geps_amer_qc_12/PNM_panel_144.gif

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:09 pm

mugs 963 off obx? isnt obx outer banks of north carolina? I see a 963 around LI, is that what you mean by obx?
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Post by pdubz Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:18 pm

At least he believes lol

*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm - Page 6 79ab268621

and hes staying just in case they need him

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:22 pm

pdubz aww poor jim go away or be in a crazy storm, dunno what to think with him saying he believes in the euro that seems to be what most mets saying now. I am gaining a bit more confidence in my original thinking what do you all think? I know a few select still think OTS but with those maps coming in it doesn't jog you at all? except bernie, he still in the threat, zone lol
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Post by pdubz Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:40 pm

i am hoping for a major storm but will not start to believe it until sat-Sunday.  (Never Forget 3/3/14 Sad)
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:49 pm

Well its been looking more and more promising, lets just hope it continues, 5 days out alot is going to happen, excitement in models and boos in models
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:53 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Nutley really the only coastal this year was 2/13, there were other coastals that trended OTS such as the storm a few weeks ago that made a hard right at Hatteras. There is not really a definitive trend with coastals, sometimes it's OTS due to too far east trough and sometimes it trends west due to better phasing. Also, 1 run of the EURO is not gospel, there hasn't been enough runs showing that this "trend" if it even is that, is for real. Also it's still very far out. A look at the ensemble members and you see a vast majority of them are OTS and the mean being far to the east as well. At this point the best we can do is sit tight and see if anything happens. Still, the trough axis is too far east and unless we see major trends or continual trends towards a further west one then the storm is going to be OTS, plain and simple. In addition lack of blocking and less than stellar teleconnections do not help.
On my defense Tom, there were numerous occasions during the winter that coastal systems, albeit mostly light to moderate storms, trended NW as the event neared. Even though I'm growing more confident in some kind of impact from this storm, I never mentioned that we were getting the full brunt of the storm. I was just showing the possible scenario that could unfold if the timing is right. By the way, check out the 12z EURO ensembles; that's the most impressive ensemble suite I've ever seen. Until we get all the players in better sampling range; sometime during the weekend, expect the models to be quite chaotic. Sorry for any misunderstandings I might have caused.
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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:00 pm

GEFS mean shows almost .5 qpf for the area, good news considering the OP was pretty much a miss must be some individual members that show some really good solutions

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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:08 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:GEFS mean shows almost .5 qpf for the area and considering the OP was pretty much a miss that must mean the individual members must show some really good solutions
sanchize you are correct of the twelve members that I looked at 5 showed a major hit and two a complete miss the rest showed something in between
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:13 pm

A major hit is .5 qpf to you guys? Some of those Euro ensembles were showing feet of snow.
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Post by Quietace Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:15 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:A major hit is .5 qpf to you guys?  Some of those Euro ensembles were showing feet of snow.
I didnt know 6 inches of snow isnt major. Sorry this isnt a HECS on models. Its march. Be happy we are tracking a system.

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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:16 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:A major hit is .5 qpf to you guys?  Some of those Euro ensembles were showing feet of snow.

That's just the average of all the members meaning some probably did show like a foot but others were a complete miss. Plus at this stage just be happy the ensembles are west of the OP

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:18 pm

Yes true enough Iguess if I think about it for March 6 inches would be moderate to me. Its not usual for this time of year i'll give it that but its also not unheard of.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:19 pm

Well ACE it looks like a HECS but just isnt close enough at this time to pan out for us, but I still have hope.  I would say a 960-970mb bomb would be a HECS no?
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Post by Quietace Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:19 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Yes true enough Iguess if I think about it for March 6 inches would be moderate to me.  Its not usual for this time of year i'll give it that but its also not unheard of.
Not my point, a 6+ system is a major system.

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Post by Quietace Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:20 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Well ACE it looks like a HECS but just isnt close enough at this time to pan out for us, but I still have hope.  I would say a 960-970mb bomb would be a HECS no?
If it even effects us. Well see. A 970 off shore doesn't do crap for us.

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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:20 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:A major hit is .5 qpf to you guys?  Some of those Euro ensembles were showing feet of snow.
I didnt know 6 inches of snow isnt major. Sorry this isnt a HECS on models. Its march. Be happy we are tracking a system.

Totally agree, no one in this area is going to see amounts like 18" like some of the ensembles have shown, I don't care what anybody says lol


Last edited by Sanchize06 on Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:22 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:22 pm

Ace up here 6 inches isnt major, a major snowstorm after what I have seen would have to be alot more than 6 inches. I grew up in CT and went to school in northern CT so I have seen some pretty insane snow totals. 6 inches is pretty, but no issue driving for me or much of a headache at all. Won't complain though but right now hoping for the big one.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:24 pm

No it doesnt ur right Ace what I was saying is if it were to go just right it would be with the strength. I won't speculate for now, no more models for next hr or two lets see how those go.
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Post by Quietace Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:24 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:A major hit is .5 qpf to you guys?  Some of those Euro ensembles were showing feet of snow.
I didnt know 6 inches of snow isnt major. Sorry this isnt a HECS on models. Its march. Be happy we are tracking a system.

Totally agree, no one in this area is going to see amounts like 18" like some of the ensembles have shown, I font care what anybody says lol
Its way too early to be throwing around amounts. Nothing on models is even sampled. Models dont have that good clue at track and will continue to shift and move around until we have the proper data and observations. But following the trend this year, nothing has wanted to phase in this fast progressive pattern we are in. Remember its a Nina! And nothing has really changed the pattern, so what makes this storm any different. For this to happen, in this pattern, everything has to be in perfect timing, if not, you get a wide broad trough and a system off shore and that's fact.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:26 pm

Ace I disagree, I don't think upton even classifys 6+ inches unless the + is alot a major storm. 12+ yes, but as I said its perspective and how it affects you IMO. A major storm to me stops things makes travel near impossible and may even close NYC schools, lol yeah right
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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:28 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:A major hit is .5 qpf to you guys?  Some of those Euro ensembles were showing feet of snow.
I didnt know 6 inches of snow isnt major. Sorry this isnt a HECS on models. Its march. Be happy we are tracking a system.

Totally agree, no one in this area is going to see amounts like 18" like some of the ensembles have shown, I font care what anybody says lol
Its way too early to be throwing around amounts. Nothing on models is even sampled. Models dont have that good clue at track and will continue to shift and move around until we have the proper data and observations. But following the trend this year, nothing has wanted to phase in this fast progressive pattern we are in. Remember its a Nina! And nothing has really changed the pattern, so what makes this storm any different. For this to happen, in this pattern, everything has to be in perfect timing, if not, you get a wide broad trough and a system off shore and that's fact.

I agree, which is why I stated before that I believe this ultimately goes OTS or perhaps brushes the coastal areas with some moderate snow

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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:29 pm

did someone kidnap frank? we should put an apb out on him.lol
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Post by Quietace Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:29 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Ace I disagree, I don't think upton even classifys 6+ inches unless the + is alot a major storm.  12+ yes, but as I said its perspective and how it affects you IMO.  A major storm to me stops things makes travel near impossible and may even close NYC schools, lol yeah right
I dont care what Upton classifies it as, 6 inches of snow can close schools, and disrupt travel at airports roads etc. You get a solid 6 inches i classify it as major, others feel different, but thats ok.

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Post by Quietace Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:31 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:A major hit is .5 qpf to you guys?  Some of those Euro ensembles were showing feet of snow.
I didnt know 6 inches of snow isnt major. Sorry this isnt a HECS on models. Its march. Be happy we are tracking a system.

Totally agree, no one in this area is going to see amounts like 18" like some of the ensembles have shown, I font care what anybody says lol
Its way too early to be throwing around amounts. Nothing on models is even sampled. Models dont have that good clue at track and will continue to shift and move around until we have the proper data and observations. But following the trend this year, nothing has wanted to phase in this fast progressive pattern we are in. Remember its a Nina! And nothing has really changed the pattern, so what makes this storm any different. For this to happen, in this pattern, everything has to be in perfect timing, if not, you get a wide broad trough and a system off shore and that's fact.

I agree, which is why I stated before that I believe this ultimately goes OTS or perhaps brushes the coastal areas with some moderate snow
Exactly, this whole seasons pattern screams no big storms, and thats a fact. It will be extremely lucky if we score a direct hit with this system because of pattern overall. Eastern areas on LI and JS can still do very well with a track SE of BM and if it did take that track, i think they would.

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