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*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm

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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:47 pm

algae888 wrote:cp help me im starting to get real excited. its still 5-6 days out and we got burned so many times lately. please talk me out of this excitement.

Breath in....breath out...breath in...breath out. Its only a contraction....it will pass. False labor. right now contractions are still about 24hrs-48 hrs apart. Alot can change in that time. Baby isnt coming today so no sense getting excited about it. Breath in....breath out. lol


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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:49 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Here is a interesting thing I thought of, if we think that the best case senarious never pan out long range then why was the Euro so spot on with Sandy? Was that just a major chance thing or does it happen often enough that we can give long range any accountibility?  BTW wheres Frank today?

jm its been my experience like sroc said when we are in the sweet spot 5-6 days out it rarely pans out. we know the storm is going to shift one way or another and probably not going to end up like todays runs. ok im starting to talk myself down. but boy i want to believe!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:50 pm

algae888 wrote:cp help me im starting to get real excited. its still 5-6 days out and we got burned so many times lately. please talk me out of this excitement.

I will repeat my post from the previous page Algae just so I can help you through this rough period.

There are better odds that People Magazine names me the sexiest man alive, than the odds of this storm burying us all in snow.

There's a better chance Kate Upton calls my house tonight and asks if I'll leave my wife so I can be with her, than this storm has of happening.

That should give you a good idea of how little chance this has of coming together.

I hope I've helped.
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Post by SNOW MAN Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:51 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:If I may use another example not involving Kate Upton.

I have a better chance of being named People magazines sexiest man alive, than this storm has of taking the perfect track to bury us all in snow.

I have nothing to back this view up other than 6 weeks of disappointment, frustration, and anger.

CP, you have to breath in through the nose and out through the mouth, now relax. Plus you can take Alice's advice from The Honeymooners "pins and needles, needles and pins it's a happy man that grins". I think I got that quote right, if not I'm sure Doc will straighten me out. Trust me I feel your PAIN. My gut tells me that this will be a miss just like the last three, if you know what I mean (wink wink).
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:53 pm

CP if you are wrong I expect your better odds to come true for you too. And personally I don't think the odds are that rediculously low. RM is hyping said periously close for MA, NYC CT major storm. It begins.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:53 pm

The models seem to have trended slightly better today however I would like to reiterate that being on the far western flank of the precip is not good this time of year, we need heavy precip rates for accumulating snow, if the trend continues we're good but I'm not going to jump after 1 set of runs.
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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:53 pm

sroc4 wrote:
algae888 wrote:cp help me im starting to get real excited. its still 5-6 days out and we got burned so many times lately. please talk me out of this excitement.

Breath in....breath out...breath in...breath out.  Its only a contraction....it will pass.  False labor.  right now contractions are still about 24hrs-48 hrs apart.  Alot can change in that time.  Baby isnt coming today so no sense getting excited about it.  Breath in....breath out


inhale exhale, inhale exhale. ok doc im comoing back down but that was a sharp contraction. do you think it will come back at 18z or 00z and be worse?
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:56 pm

Couple of hits on the 12z GGEM ensembles but a majority still well out to sea

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=132&Day=&RunTime=12&Type=pnm
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:56 pm

Snow you said things come in threes, welll that has past, so unless we are in another threes situation I think we will get something, worst case senario is possible, anything is but I am not going to say likely because that would be a lie. Just my opinion. If I am wrong, this snow weenie has many years left to see something of this magnitude. I understand the onder folks here may not and feel for ya. But thats my mindset. As a social work student I have to train myself in a certain way in all aspects of life but shoot I am blowing caution to the wind here and havin fun with it.
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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:56 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
algae888 wrote:cp help me im starting to get real excited. its still 5-6 days out and we got burned so many times lately. please talk me out of this excitement.

I will repeat my post from the previous page Algae just so I can help you through this rough period.

There are better odds that People Magazine names me the sexiest man alive, than the odds of this storm burying us all in snow.

There's a better chance Kate Upton calls my house tonight and asks if I'll leave my wife so I can be with her, than this storm has of happening.

That should give you a good idea of how little chance this has of coming together.

I hope I've helped.

whew! thanks cp. i feel better. wait the phones ringing. hello kate is that you?
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:57 pm

GFS ensembles are similar

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:CP if you are wrong I expect your better odds to come true for you too.  And personally I don't think the odds are that rediculously low.  RM is hyping said periously close for MA, NYC CT major storm.  It begins.

Jman:

Are you saying the odds of me being named sexiest man alive are that low? I'm insulted.

What about the Kate Upton thing? Also no chance?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:58 pm

NJ see its not impossible, I think CP better really hope for his outcome because he would get a major snowstorm and his fame!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:NJ see its not impossible, I think CP better really hope for his outcome because he would get a major snowstorm and his fame!

Never said it was impossible, but a look at the ensembles clearly shows it's still fairly unlikely.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:00 pm

Well CP I can't say that lol dunno what you look like. Submit and see what happens lol. I am just having fun here. Cool model outputs fun to track thats my motto now. This is our real last chance and something tells me we will be in for a surprise and you will all bow to me lol jk mugs always KSW.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:02 pm

Also still 5 days out as we said way to much to pan out at this point. There is no doubt there will be a storm, rayno has said this since a few days ago. Its just where it goes. From the beginning Frank had a "feeling" about this and his feelings are usually valid. But we will see ok have to do some actual work lol (yeah right) Im off tomorrow so I am in blah land.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:04 pm

Need Franks insight he must be working or in school.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:05 pm

I have always placed emphasis on the Euro for my preference, not discounting others but Euro has done well with really big storms. It pulled west quite a bit. That to me is a red flag and I am seeing other mets saying the same thing, prolly hype but still.
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Post by SNOW MAN Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:06 pm

He's in NY today Jman. He posted that earlier.
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:08 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Euro came in west , trying not to get excited but dang is it a powerful storm.  850mb winds have range of 50-100mph!  No more discussion about wind lol  Just a observation, never seen a pink dot on the map.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014032012&region=USA&var=GRD_850mb&hour=144

I will not be suckered in again, I will not be suckered in again, I will not be suckered in again.



I'm with you CP! Thankfully I have a busy few days ahead of me so I don't have time to get involved yet!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:09 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:If I may use another example not involving Kate Upton.

I have a better chance of being named People magazines sexiest man alive, than this storm has of taking the perfect track to bury us all in snow.

I have nothing to back this view up other than 6 weeks of disappointment, frustration, and anger.

CP, you have to breath in through the nose and out through the mouth, now relax. Plus you can take Alice's advice from The Honeymooners "pins and needles, needles and pins it's a happy man that grins". I think I got that quote right, if not I'm sure Doc will straighten me out. Trust me I feel your PAIN. My gut tells me that this will be a miss just like the last three, if you know what I mean (wink wink).

Snow Man: There are better odds that I beat you in the next 20 low temperature contests, than this storm hitting our area.

You nailed it, it was "pins and needles, needles and pins it's a happy man that grins". Another classic episode.
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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:11 pm

ukie also showing a bomb but a little east of euro
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:16 pm

algae where do you view the ukie for free? Everyone here is wishing this out of existance with their sckpticism. Me no like.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:16 pm

algae888 wrote:ukie also showing a bomb but a little east of euro

Algae:

You're not making this any easier, on any of us.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:17 pm

I am willing to bet the Euro trends same or bit more west, GFS stays same or bit west and cmc same thing. This is what I saw from the beginning and the longer it takes to show the perfect situation the better so just a bit at a time.
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Post by algae888 Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:17 pm

jmanley32 wrote:algae where do you view the ukie for free?  Everyone here is wishing this out of existance with their sckpticism.  Me no like.

psu ewall
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:17 pm

Ok CP I am sorry I betting you tell me the same thing. I will stop for now.
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