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*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm

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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 21, 2014 2:49 pm

@pdubz wrote:This is good so far i would be worried if all models showed a bomb on the bm right now.. rather have it slowly come together by Saturday-Sunday

My thoughts exactly.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 21, 2014 2:57 pm

Man misses NYC by few miles, Frank does it go any further north and get NYC and Yonkers into the blue?
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Mar 21, 2014 3:04 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Man misses NYC by few miles, Frank does it go any further north and get NYC and Yonkers into the blue?

J, that is a TOTAL precip map. So no.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 21, 2014 3:09 pm

Ugg I hope it trends further west has me on line of a few inches maybe. BR says the models are consistent didnt we just say they were all over the place? And sorry if I made multiple posts but I am very tired and think of things in scattered ways I wish there was a way to condense but as soon as someone else posts you cannot delete a post.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 21, 2014 3:14 pm

The models are consistent on taking this storm just offshore and grazing the area. So their statement is not false. Some of the ensembles take this further west, but the OP's are in general agreement besides the GFS, which is too far east. Obviously this could change, but they've remained consistent.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 21, 2014 3:14 pm

Off to work. See you all either late tonight around 1am or tomorrow morning.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 21, 2014 3:16 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z euro total precip:

*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm - Page 14 Post-177-0-98623900-1395426748

All snow

That map is our story of the last 6 weeks. I don't expect it to do anything but stay there or go further east. When a pattern is set it becomes difficult to break it.  It's understood anything can happen but the odds are not on our side.

As many have said and I completely concur I'd rather not have the models slamming us 4-5 days out because look how poorly that worked out during the last 3 storms.

In conclusion this storm has as much a chance

I will now muzzle myself.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Mar 21, 2014 4:05 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by amugs Fri Mar 21, 2014 3:43 pm

The Atlantic Side of the world is giving us no help so it is up to the PAC side the PNA to remain strong (positive and not break down)so we can get this sucker to dig, amplify, phase earlier and then eject up the coast.

The Northern Stream energy has been killing our PNA whenever we have these storms ready to roll on our side only to have them slide underneath us OTS.  We have to see if it can remain intact to help this bad boy come a bit further west IMO.

Anything is still possible. Tomorrow at this time we know more. Razz 

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Post by docstox12 Fri Mar 21, 2014 4:00 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:12z euro total precip:

*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm - Page 14 Post-177-0-98623900-1395426748

All snow

That map is our story of the last 6 weeks. I don't expect it to do anything but stay there or go further east. When a pattern is set it becomes difficult to break it.  It's understood anything can happen but the odds are not on our side.

As many have said and I completely concur I'd rather have not have the models slamming a 4-5 days out because look how poorly that worked out during the last 3 storms.

In conclusion this storm has as much a chance

I will now muzzle myself.

This map is the worst case scenario for you, Snow and Me, CP. The trend has not been our friend the last 6 weeks.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Mar 21, 2014 4:01 pm

@amugs wrote:The Atlantic Side of the world is giving us no help so it is up to the PAC side the PNA to remain strong (positive and not break down)so we can get this sucker to dig, amplify, phase earlier and then eject up the coast.

The Northern Stream energy has been killing our PNA whenever we have these storms ready to roll on our side only to have them slide underneath us OTS.  We have to see if it can remain intact to help this bad boy come a bit further west IMO.

Anything is still possible. Tomorrow at this time we know more. Razz 

Right, Mugsy, things just haven't been coming together lately.Hopefully, it pulls west so we can squeeze out a few inches anyway.Would like to see one last snowfall before the curtain comes down.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:31 pm

All snow but likely non-accumulating, too light and March sun angle will burn that, maybe some on LI and the immediate coast with more QPF.
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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:32 pm

18z GFS is running now. Lets see what happens.

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Post by algae888 Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:39 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:All snow but likely non-accumulating, too light and March sun angle will burn that, maybe some on LI and the immediate coast with more QPF.

nj most of this storm is going to fall at night. sun angle will not make a difference.
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Post by Yschiff Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:42 pm

Bernie rayon video http://t.co/huzhRHe6cg

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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:01 pm

GFS at hr 90. See some slight improvements. Probably will still be well east.
*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm - Page 14 Gfs_pr22

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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:06 pm

GFS still well SE of BM

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:19 pm

Yep OTS been consistant on that sux, bernie talks about the trough being the main key, is there any chance it goes negative sooner to allow for the northern and west movement and for the h5 to close off at just the right time?
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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:22 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Yep OTS been consistant on that sux, bernie talks about the trough being the main key, is there any chance it goes negative sooner to allow for the northern and west movement and for the h5 to close off at just the right time?
Yeah with a earlier phase, and a cleaner consolidation of energy at the base of the trough. But we need a cleaner ridge out west for that. Needs to hold on longer.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:35 pm

And what are the chances of that, I have learned the visuals of the trough but the latter you talk about I am not knowledgable on.
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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:39 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:And what are the chances of that, I have learned the visuals of the trough but the latter you talk about I am not knowledgeable on.
I haven't seen models trend toward a slower pacific wave, which de-amplifies the trough as it crashes into the west coast as our system on the EC begins to form.
Maybe we will at 0z tonight, maybe it wont, but its poorly sampled. if its slower and weaker, the ridging stays more potent in the west, which will help us greatly and keep the pattern more amplified.

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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:42 pm

It would also be nice to have a stronger ST to pump the heights on the EC higher to allow for more amplification.

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Post by pdubz Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:56 pm

"When comparing model runs, you can't just compare the changes in the MSL charts. Most of the changes people are talking about are at 500mb which, if keeps up, will lead to changes at the surface."

"Looking at 500mb at 96 hours and the surface, if the GFS idea of that setup was right, I don't know how the hell that low could ever take a track that far east from 96-108, that thing would come inside the benchmark"

some quotes from AW forum
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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:01 pm

@pdubz wrote:"When comparing model runs, you can't just compare the changes in the MSL charts. Most of the changes people are talking about are at 500mb which, if keeps up, will lead to changes at the surface."

"Looking at 500mb at 96 hours and the surface, if the GFS idea of that setup was right, I don't know how the hell that low could ever take a track that far east from 96-108, that thing would come inside the benchmark"

some quotes from AW forum
Yeah but the 500mb trough takes to long to go negative which allows the north east movement at first before the north movement. Forces a outside the benchmark track. It the trough was more negative when the low was tucked in in the SE, then it would have shown a strong hit.
Dont know how correct that statement is. But their was definitely some improvements that run i want to see continue into the 0z runs.

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Post by algae888 Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:06 pm

@pdubz wrote:"When comparing model runs, you can't just compare the changes in the MSL charts. Most of the changes people are talking about are at 500mb which, if keeps up, will lead to changes at the surface."

"Looking at 500mb at 96 hours and the surface, if the GFS idea of that setup was right, I don't know how the hell that low could ever take a track that far east from 96-108, that thing would come inside the benchmark"

some quotes from AW forum

pubz I agree. 18z gfs made some good changes at h5. sharper trough and closes off sooner than 12z. I looked at surface after looking at h5 and was surprised to see track so far east. I really thought it was a major hit looking at h5. only negative was the ridge in west was a little flatter. which is concerning. if 00z makes same adjustments as 18z did I think storm will be a direct hit.
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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:09 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@pdubz wrote:"When comparing model runs, you can't just compare the changes in the MSL charts. Most of the changes people are talking about are at 500mb which, if keeps up, will lead to changes at the surface."

"Looking at 500mb at 96 hours and the surface, if the GFS idea of that setup was right, I don't know how the hell that low could ever take a track that far east from 96-108, that thing would come inside the benchmark"

some quotes from AW forum

pubz I agree. 18z gfs made some good changes at h5. sharper trough and closes off sooner than 12z. I looked at surface after looking at h5 and was surprised to see track so far east. I really thought it was a major hit looking at h5. only negative was the ridge in west was a little flatter. which is concerning. if 00z makes same adjustments as 18z did I think storm will be a direct hit.
Follow the southern stream 500mb vort the Low associated with. Track it up the EC until its infused with the negative tilt and closes off. Then look at the surface. Exactly the same track. Representation is fine IMO.

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