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*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm

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Post by algae888 Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:06 pm

pdubz wrote:"When comparing model runs, you can't just compare the changes in the MSL charts. Most of the changes people are talking about are at 500mb which, if keeps up, will lead to changes at the surface."

"Looking at 500mb at 96 hours and the surface, if the GFS idea of that setup was right, I don't know how the hell that low could ever take a track that far east from 96-108, that thing would come inside the benchmark"

some quotes from AW forum

pubz I agree. 18z gfs made some good changes at h5. sharper trough and closes off sooner than 12z. I looked at surface after looking at h5 and was surprised to see track so far east. I really thought it was a major hit looking at h5. only negative was the ridge in west was a little flatter. which is concerning. if 00z makes same adjustments as 18z did I think storm will be a direct hit.

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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:09 pm

algae888 wrote:
pdubz wrote:"When comparing model runs, you can't just compare the changes in the MSL charts. Most of the changes people are talking about are at 500mb which, if keeps up, will lead to changes at the surface."

"Looking at 500mb at 96 hours and the surface, if the GFS idea of that setup was right, I don't know how the hell that low could ever take a track that far east from 96-108, that thing would come inside the benchmark"

some quotes from AW forum

pubz I agree. 18z gfs made some good changes at h5. sharper trough and closes off sooner than 12z. I looked at surface after looking at h5 and was surprised to see track so far east. I really thought it was a major hit looking at h5. only negative was the ridge in west was a little flatter. which is concerning. if 00z makes same adjustments as 18z did I think storm will be a direct hit.
Follow the southern stream 500mb vort the Low associated with. Track it up the EC until its infused with the negative tilt and closes off. Then look at the surface. Exactly the same track. Representation is fine IMO.

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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:11 pm

I do agree that the H5 was still improved though. Would like to see much more at the 0z's.
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Post by algae888 Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:19 pm

ace we are so close to this being a direct hit. we do not need a big improvement just a small one. would you agree?
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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:21 pm

algae888 wrote:ace we are so close to this being a direct hit. we do not need a big improvement just a small one. would you agree?
Moderate improvements over a few runs will do the trick yes.
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Post by algae888 Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:22 pm

plus what I liked about 18z was storm was intensifying along the s Carolina coast. unlike the 12z which started intensifying off the nj coast
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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:23 pm

algae888 wrote:plus what I liked about 18z was storm was intensifying along the s Carolina coast. unlike the 12z which started intensifying off the nj coast
Initial low Was further tucked into GA/SC. That is a big positive yes.
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Post by algae888 Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:26 pm

at hour 105 the storm is a little nw of 12z and already at 988mb the trough is neg and the storm should have come due north or slightly west of north but it move ne the next 2 frames. I think that is wrong
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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:28 pm

algae888 wrote:at hour 105 the storm is a little nw of 12z and already at 988mb the trough is neg and the storm should have come due north or slightly west of north but it move ne the next 2 frames. I think that is wrong
Thats your opinion, but imo i think its surface reflection is correct given H5 vorticity verbatim.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:29 pm

algae, this is stuff that I am novice at this so but so what you are saying is the 500mb maps did not match what should have happened on the surface GFS?  I can only hope for inside the benchmark, there is no issues with temps no matter how close this gets right? It will be snow or no snow no matter what? When you guys say direct hit do you mean the low coming right over the area or just getting hit with the outer part? A direct hit would be a serious situation, I believe that link of the news article said this would be a once in 10-20 year event if it trasnpired. So it seems you guys are gaining a little more hope?


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Post by algae888 Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:32 pm

Quietace wrote:
algae888 wrote:at hour 105 the storm is a little nw of 12z and already at 988mb the trough is neg and the storm should have come due north or slightly west of north but it move ne the next 2 frames. I think that is wrong
Thats your opinion, but imo i think its surface reflection is correct given H5 vorticity verbatim.

ok ace well hopefully we see an improvement tonite. thanks for your responses.
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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:34 pm

algae888 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
algae888 wrote:at hour 105 the storm is a little nw of 12z and already at 988mb the trough is neg and the storm should have come due north or slightly west of north but it move ne the next 2 frames. I think that is wrong
Thats your opinion, but imo i think its surface reflection is correct given H5 vorticity verbatim.

ok ace well hopefully we see an improvement tonite. thanks for your responses.
I think we might see great improvements with the 0z data. Hopefully.
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:37 pm

Don't think there will be any worry about rain, it would have to come west and weaker which I don't see happening. I think the strength of the storm will be there, just need it more west

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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:39 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Don't think there will be any worry about rain, it would have to come west and weaker which I don't see happening. I think the strength of the storm will be there, just need it more west
Agreed, it wouldn't happen with a NS driven system. Thicknesses would be to low to allow any mixed precip unless the low rides the coast which i give 0% chance of happening.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:39 pm

Heres hoping for at least some jog west, not all the way just slow progress up till the event and have the low off jersey coast or slighty south east of NYC for a snowicane! Theres my fantasy storm. And I am not feeling its so much of a fantasy anymore hoping. Glad to hear no rain, one thing for sure if it comes close enough those winds will be damaging as it appears the strongest re to the west and north of the storm. Seems alot like a hurricane.


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Post by algae888 Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:algae, this is stuff that I am novice at this so but so what you are saying is the 500mb maps did not match what should have happened on the surface GFS?  I can only hope for inside the benchmark, there is no issues with temps no matter how close this gets right? It will be snow or no snow no matter what? When you guys say direct hit do you mean the low coming right over the area or just getting hit with the outer part?  A direct hit would be a serious situation, I believe that link of the news article said this would be a once in 10-20 year event if it trasnpired.  So it seems you guys are gaining a little more hope?

jman everything is on the table snow rain ice wind and even sun. we should know more by tom nite. going to dinner with my fiancée will be looking at watch though so I will be home at 11:30. lol
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:53 pm

Quietace wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:Don't think there will be any worry about rain, it would have to come west and weaker which I don't see happening. I think the strength of the storm will be there, just need it more west
Agreed, it wouldn't happen with a NS driven system. Thicknesses would be to low to allow any mixed precip unless the low rides the coast which i give 0% chance of happening.

Definitely, no way this rides the Jersey shore

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Post by pdubz Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:56 pm

Moderator on A/W wrote this

"The fact that such definitive statements are being thrown around here 114 hours prior to the event is mind boggling to me, but I suppose fairly typical for weather forums. That being said, it doesn't take too much analysis of the mid level height fields to realize that the forecast models remain dangerously close to a significantly farther west solution and seem to want to continue teetering on the edge of this over the past 48 hours."

"The GFS has a very robust jet streak surging southeastward through the Plains around 90 hours and there is a mid level shortwave associated with this feature which is visible on the 500mb vorticity maps. When you track the height field and orientation of this shortwave you can see the direct correlation it has in regard to the developing surface low. Additionally, you can see how the ridge axis to the west of this feature, owing to the placement and intensity of the upper level low in the Northeast Pacific, has huge implications on the positioning and amplitude of that said ridge. In black, I have highlighted the 18z GFS position of these features and in yellow, highlighted where they would need to be positioned to become more favorable/ideal for a farther west solution."

*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm - Page 15 Post-6-0-61897900-1395443683

"6-12 hours later, the models are in good agreement that a significant event will be unfolding somewhere from the Mississippi River Valley to the Southeast States, with a very energetic disturbance shifting east/southeastward and interacting with the lead shortwave. The incoming jet streak will aid in rapid amplification and development of mid level lows off the East Coast. However, the exact placement of the lead shortwave remains too far east -- and this is a direct result of interact between the incoming shortwave, positioning of the height field from the earlier frame pictured, and finally each individual model handling interactions and individual perturbations along the baroclinic zone. Once again, just slight adjustments will cause major changes and I have highlighted those accordingly."

*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm - Page 15 Post-6-0-69733300-1395443691

"With all of this noted, it is important to understand that forecast models are going to struggle immensely with each individual interaction as this system unfolds. We are currently entering a period where they should slowly start to get a better idea as to how the different players on the field will evolve. But it may not be until 48 hours prior to the event that all models will agree on how the small, finer interactions will occur.

I will say this -- we will know a lot more about how this is going to shake down once that lead piece of energy comes into a more dense observation area, and the models begin to get a better idea just how amplified the ridge will be on the west coast around that time. Until then, we can only do our best to analyze the pattern and trends (one run is not a trend, by the way) of global models and their ensembles."


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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:57 pm

Doesn't need to ride the coast to cause some crazy mayhem so I don't care about that. Inside the benchmark is a good hit.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:06 pm

LOL algae u are a true snow weenie, don't ignore your fiance over the weather! My wife gets really mad at me when I sit here and watch the models come in and dont pay attention to anything else lol
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:39 pm

Latest from Upton: (Big change in the discussion)

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COASTAL STORM WHICH COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE
STORM NOT TOO FAR TO THE SE OF THE 40W/70N BENCHMARK WEDS
MORNING...AND THE GFS OVER THE PAST DAY HAS TRENDED NORTH TOWARDS
THIS SOLUTION. CMC SHOWS A SIMILAR TRACK.

THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO FROM A COUPLE OF PREVIOUS STORMS THAT
ENDED UP BEING SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH BY CONFLUENCE AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. INSTEAD...IF THIS IS A COMPLETE
MISS...IT WILL PROBABLY HINGE MORE ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF
PHASING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE PAC NW REGION...SOME
ENERGY DIVING DOWN FROM NW CANADA...AND POSSIBLY SOME ENERGY
BREAKING OFF FROM THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED EAST OF HUDSON BAY. SUNY
STONY BROOK ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR BOTH ECMWF AND GEFS
HAD EARLIER SUGGESTED THAT THE PAC NW ENERGY ARRIVING ONSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON THE EVENTUAL NORTH-SOUTH
UNCERTAINTY OF THE STORM TRACK. AT LEAST WITH THE GEFS ON THE 12Z
RUN...IT IS NOW FOCUSING MORE ON THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN
FROM NW CANADA. IT HAS ALSO SHOWN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS A
LARGE DEGREE OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN MSLP TO THE N OF EACH OF THE MEAN
TRACKS...IMPLYING THAT THE TRACK WOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH.

WOULD LIKE TO SEE A STRONGER SIGNAL OF SHORTWAVE PHASING AND/OR AN
EARLIER CLOSING OF THE 500MB LOW BEFORE BEING MORE CONVINCED THAT
THIS STORM WILL ACTUALLY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE STORM WOULD OTHERWISE BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE...NOTING ALSO A LACK OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. GIVEN
RECENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A SLIGHT NW TRACK NUDGE OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
FOR THE NEXT CYCLE OR TWO. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE STORM TRACK HAS
NOT CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM THE 00Z SUITE...AND WE ARE NOW ONLY
12 HOURS CLOSER TO AN EVENT THAT MAY START 4 DAYS FROM NOW. WILL
THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A MENTION OF POTENTIAL WARNING-LEVEL
IMPACTS IN THE HWO AND WILL CAP POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR THE EVENT.

SHOULD MSLP FORECASTS PAN OUT...THIS WILL BE POWERFUL LOW WITH
STRONG WINDS AT LEAST FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS. FORTUNATELY...WE
WOULD BE IN BETWEEN A FULL AND NEW MOON...SO ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE
CYCLES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THEY COULD BE. WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK JUST SE OF THE 40W/70N BENCHMARK...THIS WOULD
PROBABLY BE AN ALL-SNOW EVENT WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:43 pm

Seems they are hinting at a bit more of a storm chance mentioning things like impacts and tides, warning levels (even though they said they are holding off) and 50% chance pops. I am trying to stay cool but my snow weenie in me wants to scream in such hope!
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Post by HectorO Fri Mar 21, 2014 9:06 pm

jmanley32 wrote:LOL algae u are a true snow weenie, don't ignore your fiance over the weather!  My wife gets really mad at me when I sit here and watch the models come in and dont pay attention to anything else lol

I'm 29 I got married young years back. My wife and I love warmer weather so no need for ignoring Wink. I'm actually applying for two jobs, one in south beach and the other in LA Smile. I've been quiet here lately just because I've been dealing with a whole new storm................. My in-laws. Always trying to tell me whats best for me. Anyways, today was great, alittle windy for me, but nice. I have a feeling this summer will be a little cooler, however, I am definitely ready for warm weather.
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Post by oldtimer Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:00 am

Thx Jman I thought everyone dropped off the face of the earth lol

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:01 am

00z GFS def came a bit N and west. good to see a bit of a jog.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:03 am

I did for a while dead tired lol, but woke just in time for the good run. We taking steps in the right direction.
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Post by oldtimer Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:05 am

Baby steps might work better Still got time Jman

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