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*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:11 am

Im reading the 00z GFS has a closed off low at 500mb and threat is increasing for NJ (probably very southern NY too in that case).
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Post by essexcountypete Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:13 am

Yeah, I was wondering where everybody was, but it's been a tough month. People are hesitant to get too invested, still three days out, more than enough time to have something not line up just right. We're all thinking a nice warm spring would be nice. But hey, if it's going to be cold anyway, let it snow. I'm looking forward to a couple more days of winter storm tracking.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:18 am

http://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2014/03/powerful_noreaster_could_bring_nj_damaging_winds_coastal_flooding_and_more_snow.html

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/easter-bomb-hit-new-york-heavy-snow-strong-winds-article-1.1729897

Articles from earlier, NJ one is most updated from after 9pm. Media is def get this one out let the panic ensue ugg
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Post by Dtone Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:42 am

I saw that Daily News article, I cringed a little. The actual article commits to nothing but they just like to throw headlines out to cause a stir.
Right now I'm good with whatever happens, I'd like to see one more storm to send off winter but at this point in the season any snows that falls I consider a bonus.

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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:04 am

just got home and looking over the models. gfs came a little further nw. has about .5qpf for nyc more on LI. I like that the trough on gfs is stronger and LP seems to be getting stronger with each run. one thing is becoming clear and a couple of local mets feel the same that this storm is going to be powerful. just need a 50 mile shift west and we all would see at least 6-12"
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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:07 am

where is everyone. are you giving up on this storm. man models slow to run tonight. no cmc yet or ukie.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:18 am

@algae888 wrote:where is everyone. are you giving up on this storm. man models slow to run tonight. no cmc yet or ukie.
I read on another forum that they both trended west.
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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:24 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@algae888 wrote:where is everyone. are you giving up on this storm. man models slow to run tonight. no cmc yet or ukie.
I read on another forum that they both trended west.

cmc just loaded has similar track as 12z but 10mb stronger and more qpf for us. do not have totals but it snows for 20 to 24 hours. has a 960mb low at the benchmark. it is actually just s/e of BM and moves n/w over BM. can somebody post gfs and cmc snow maps?
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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:30 am

you would think a storm this strong would have more qpf than what models are showing. storm seems to be compact and tight heavy precip doesn't extend very far from center.
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Post by Joe Snow Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:41 am

The GFS:



*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm - Page 16 36z
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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:48 am

What i have been hearing so far

"00z GEFS mean is way west of 18z"
"0.50" plus west of NYC on the GEFS mean. At 18z the 0.50" plus contour was SE of the Twin Forks."
"-At hour 96, the 0z Ukmet is well west of the GFS"

GFS and CMC ticked west so that's good news, will see what the EURO shows
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:07 am

@pdubz wrote:What i have been hearing so far

"00z GEFS mean is way west of 18z"
"0.50" plus west of NYC on the GEFS mean. At 18z the 0.50" plus contour was SE of the Twin Forks."
"-At hour 96, the 0z Ukmet is well west of the GFS"

GFS and CMC ticked west so that's good news, will see what the EURO shows

This seems accurate. We'll see where we stand this time tomorrow night. Right now, my call is 2-4 inches for NYC Metro area.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:17 am

Euro looks decent

*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm - Page 16 988448_540631026057826_1203023964_n

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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:18 am

GGEM ensembles... some insane ones

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=108&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:19 am

Such a huge storm with large precip field. Seriously, it's just miles away from bringing heavier snows over NYC Metro

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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:20 am

Euro ticked west too. Also faster
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:21 am

Yea, it was a petty good run. Another tick west and we could be in the 6+'

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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:23 am

these are the small ticks west we need until further sampling. then we can start hoping for bigger jumps west onto the BM
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:27 am

Euro snow map

*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm - Page 16 Post-177-0-42302000-1395469442

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:28 am

EURO HAS COME IN WEST, looks a lot like GGEM.
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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:30 am

one of the few times being on the east end is a good thing... hopefully it jumps west by sunday and were all in the 1-2 feet range

BTW 00z EURO was 100 miles west of the 12z EURO
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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:25 am

0z NAVGEM is further west.

994mb at 96hr
*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm - Page 16 F96

972mb at 108hr

*BLOG* (page 13) March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm - Page 16 F108
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:18 am

I can't deny the overnight trends but there's still a ways to go before this becomes a good hit for our entire area. Until on shore samplings are in the models data I take these runs with a grain of salt. The 72 hour drastic turn in the models against us during the last couple of non events is still to fresh in my mind. If I see the storm hitting us on most models at 60 hours I will begin to believe we have a chance but not until then.
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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:28 am

same here lets hope models today all come west and start the west trend to end this winter with a bang
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:44 am

@pdubz wrote:same here lets hope models today all come west and start the west trend to end this winter with a bang

I'd much rather be in Port Washington for this one than EPA, NWNJ or the western HV. Your odds are much better than most ATM.
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