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March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0

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Post by sroc4 Sat Mar 22, 2014 7:39 am

Ladies and gentlemen the last 2 days or so we have been pacing ourselves down the back stretch.  Looking to our left we can see the finish line and there has been some jockying for position, but there has still been a loooong way to go.  Keep in mind the horse in the lead down the back stretch is more often than NOT the horse that wins the race.

This weekend we have officially entered the final turn and the finish line is just around the bend.  The winning horse that has been pacing himself in good position a few horses back will begin to make his move soon so we must be patient.  Come Monday we will enter the home stretch.  At that time we will see if there is a close enough race to see if the lead horse can be caught down the home stretch.  But the moves made this weekend will be telling about which horses are still in it come Monday.  

Moving on from this corney analogy.  

We must look at last nights runs still with somewhat of a grain of salt.  At the moment there is decent agreement in a very potent system with a track just S and E of the BM.  Decent position for the immediate coast but less than ideal for most.  

Keep this in mind.  Most of the energy with this system will not be reaching good sampling regions until tonight's 00z at the earliest.  Todays 12z will be important, but the trends that go on between tonight's 00z and the 00z overnight Sunday into Monday morning will be telling at what to expect in the end.  So I ask everyone to not get too excited or disappointed until at least tomorrow evening.   afro 

I will leave you with an image of last nights Euro Ensemble Mean with the centers of all the individual member runs.  There are a few members that are well S and E...disregard them for now.  There looks to be two main clusters in the members.  I believe there will be a trend one way or another but not a huge one.  Keep in mind here a trend NW of 50-75 miles would bring 6 inches to most of us.  A trend SE by the same amount takes most of us out of any accum snow at all with the exception of maybe a coating to few inches to the east end of LI.  This sucker is going to be close....I think.  Of course the bitter taste of 3/3/14 is still in my mind here and a complete whiff is still possible, but this setup is drastically different so I doubt it.    
March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 <a href=March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 Euro_e11" />

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 22, 2014 8:00 am

I like the analogy and the write up but I'm still not buying this storm, at least not for most for reasons stated earlier in the old thread. I'd love it to happen but I'm certainly not expecting it. To reiterate one point that you also stated I'm not going to believe any model runs with this until we are inside 60 hours and there is a decent amount of model consensus. For now there's a lot of different scenarios and differing opinions on the setup. To me it's still a 1 in 8 for a good hit for everyone.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 22, 2014 8:18 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I like the analogy and the write up but I'm still not buying this storm, at least not for most for reasons stated earlier in the old thread. I'd love it to happen but I'm certainly not expecting it. To reiterate one point that you also stated I'm not going to believe any model runs with this until we are inside 60 hours and there is a decent amount of model consensus. For now there's a lot of different scenarios and differing opinions on the setup. To me it's still a 1 in 8 for a good hit for everyone.

The trend has not favored our area CP.The way these storms have worked all winter, areas south and east of us have gotten more snow.The only reason you caught up and got ahead was the two part storm in February, the ONLY storm that favored the HV all winter.Other than that, it's been south and east.This current storm still persists in being a coastal scraper in all the runs.Bodes ill at this point for us again.It is, as you say, a long way out.By Monday morning, the models should come together for a solution.Don't count your snowflakes before they fall!
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 8:42 am

Thought this was cool.

http://models.weatherbell.com/news/gfs_2014032200_pres_uv10m_east2.gif
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 8:43 am

Still def needs to come west, 06z GFS looks to be about the same as 00z.
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 8:46 am

I think no matter what, coastal regions, even with the low offshore, have to be worried about beach erosion and some small coastal flooding.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 8:50 am

Yeah ace, and it wouldnt take to far of a jog to get into the high winds either, NWS is suggesting they think they will see a northern trend and are thinking a NW trend over next coming model runs may happen.  Imagine if it ended up being like 50-100 miles inside the BM.  All the heaviest stuff is to the north and west so we wont be worrying about if we will be on the light side of the storm.  All out snowicane if that setup happened.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:10 am

March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 Gem_mslp_wind_us_18

March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 Gem_mslp_wind_us_19

Talk about some crazy wind!  150 miles west+ and I will be in the heart of the outer heaviest part snow and near hurricane for winds, thats a long trek but i dont think its impossible, we will see come tonight hopefully if its going to trek far enough west and def tomorrow.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:19 am; edited 2 times in total
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:16 am

jmanley32 wrote:March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 Gem_mslp_wind_us_19

Talk about some crazy wind!
The winds with the system will be super impressive,
Closer in view
March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 Cmc_ms10
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:17 am

If this storm does shift to the west, the destruction with wind, waves and snow will honestly be terrible for areas that dont need it.
Still 20-30mph winds along the coast with the storm that far off the coast verbatim.


Last edited by Quietace on Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:19 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:18 am

Imagine if a storm this strong was tucked inside the BM. Roidzilla with category 3 hurricane type winds.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:21 am

March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 Coastal

This image was from my blog the other day. As of this morning, I still like this image and would make the purple zones 3-6 inches of snow and blue zone C-2 inches. There is likely to be a sharp cutoff with this storm. This is NOT an official snow map it's just where my current thoughts are. My 1st guess snow map will be released tomorrow morning.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:22 am

Frank, I dont think we have a shot in the dark at cat 3 winds (hav never seen though), I wouldnt wish for that, with this curent if we were inside the BM we would have winds sustained over 50mph and gusts near cat 1 or a bit above. Thats enough wind I think lol The roidzilla I am fine with bring that on!
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Post by sroc4 Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:22 am

Quietace wrote:If this storm does shift to the west, the destruction with wind, waves and snow will honestly be terrible for areas that dont need it.
Still 20-30mph winds along the coast with the storm that far off the coast verbatim.  

Agreed. Im all for a good snow storm, but the intensity of this system makes me nervous. Esp out on eastern LI. Being a new home owner surrounded by 75 ft oaks Im a tad concerned. 6-12" and 50-60MPH sustained winds with higher gusts would not be cool...for my home

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:24 am

Ok ryan I like ur image better starting to get convinced to get wxbell lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:25 am

I meant the pressure of the storm could be equal to one of a cat 3 hurricane. Sub 970mb

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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:29 am

sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:If this storm does shift to the west, the destruction with wind, waves and snow will honestly be terrible for areas that dont need it.
Still 20-30mph winds along the coast with the storm that far off the coast verbatim.  

Agreed.  Im all for a good snow storm, but the intensity of this system makes me nervous.  Esp out on eastern LI.   Being a new home owner surrounded by 75 ft oaks Im a tad concerned.  6-12" and 50-60MPH sustained winds with higher gusts would not be cool...for my home  
Always hate these storms. Especially living 5 feet from fast moving water and a wind tunnel. lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:33 am

Am worried about cape code (bad enough with progg now) with any move to west they will have a full on monster of a snowicane, I have friends with a house out there and we plan to go next summer, I used to go every summer. Stopped going when I got bit older ( was a family thing and we all went our seperate ways) but took my wife (then fiance) in 2012 to propose and it was my dismayed to see how destroyed the beaches had gotten. This storm would only add insult to injury for them. Boston too, is close to being clobbered by the winds and a good portion of my family lives there or around. I have a bad feeling this will move close enough to bring high wind warnings to the area maybe, even higher for LI if it trends west like that. We need to prepare no matter what I look at this like preparing for a hurricane honestly the only difference is its not, but it has all the ingredients. I wonder if we will get a eye out of this thing like we did with that giant snowstorm either last yr or the year before.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:33 am

Still not very excited for most of the area, however I think its possible parts of eastern LI get into the heavier snows
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:34 am

Oh sorry Frank thought you said winds. Yes the pressure could be nuts.
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Post by amugs Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:34 am

Big 24 hours ahead of us today folks. The Cape, Nantucket, MV get absolutely crushed in the latest guidance. Call friends in Sandwhich on the Cape and told him to battin' down the hatches.

Question - I read awhile ago from where I do not recall, that the stronger the LP is the more West it wants to move - now I know you need other factors but is there truth to this?

Looking at the Euro Ens - Merry Xmass to all weather weenies - woo hoo - looks like a good number of LP are on the BM or just inside.

@Frank and everyone else - could you imagine if this retrogrades to the coast like the great 1888 or 1978 storms!

Out most of the day for a 40th bday party will be checking in later so HAPPY TRACKING and i am expecting good news - hahaha!

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:38 am

mugs yes I heard the stronger the further west thing too.  Maybe once better sampling comes into play it will show this or maybe that will be more of a nowcasting deal.  Dunno about its validity but it had to come from somewhere so i'd like to know too if that is a true fact.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:38 am

Mugs there is some truth to that. A strong storm once its capitured by the trough could force a negative tilt. But when does the storm get captured? Right now on current guidance too late but we'll see

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Post by amugs Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:40 am

Thanks Frank.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 10:44 am

The euro model last night got this storm down to 954mb with wind gusts over 110 mph. Pressure wise, almost a category 4 hurricane. Obviously the storm was too far out to sea for us to see those type of winds, but we could still be looking at gusts over 40-50 mph throughout the area.

March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 Ecmwf_uv10g_neng_20

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