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March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:27 pm

@algae888 wrote:Frank and Ace is it possible that one low is heading out to sea and that with the Trough so amplified that is forming another low and bringing it up to coast.

I'm not discounting this and is very possible. This storm so far is going as I expected with my threat map that I made from my blog. I can also see this continue intensifying through Monday. First guess snow map will be out tomorrow morning around 8am. Off to work for the night.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:28 pm

Well guys I am out, I will be back for the ensembles and 18z. Thanks for keeping us posted, and I am surprised there are so few ppl here.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:29 pm

Ok Frank well see you in the day tomorrow sometime.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:29 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@algae888 wrote:Frank and Ace is it possible that one low is heading out to sea and that with the Trough so amplified that is forming another low and bringing it up to coast.
The Euro solution is garbage. Dont think so.

The euro did see CFI, but we could see a scenario where the Gulf low tracks out to sea since the trough is lagging behind. Then once the energy within the trough reaches the coast, a secondary low forms.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:37 pm

Also keep in mind the sampling won't be on land until 00z runs tomorrow night.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:40 pm

@Quietace wrote:March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 5 Untitl10

So Ace where you have where you think should be the LP is where it should develop in association with the energy in the trough, but look at all the energy out ahead of it in the STJ East of Sc/Ga coast.  Im concerned with that energy.  That energy out ahead of the trough of the base has been showing up consistently.  I mentioned this a few days ago when we were looking at both the euro and CMC were showing the double barreled low soln.  Its something to watch.  I am concerned that the energy in the base doesnt catch up the that southern energy until it is too far east which is when the more organized LP turns north.  At that point too late.  

We also have to keep in mind that only tonights 00'z will start to have better sampled data. Any real trends that are going to happen will be between 00z tonight and 12z Monday.
March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 5 <a href=March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 5 Ecmwf_14" />

[img]March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 5 Ecmwf_16[/img]

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:48 pm

Scott, its their on every model with different intensities, but will the energy actually be their, or is it a error? Well see at 0z, but I think it might be a error. Just doesn't look right to me, but i could be wrong.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:56 pm

So sroc I thought that double Barrell low on cm other day gave us like 20 inches of snow? Now what u just said it would b a miss or was I misunderstanding you?
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Post by sroc4 Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:04 pm

@Quietace wrote:Scott, its their on every model with different intensities, but will the energy actually be their, or is it a error? Well see at 0z, but I think it might be a error. Just doesn't look right to me, but i could be wrong.

LMFAO


"Yeah but even a monkey can figure out that the European model surface depiction is completely wrong. Sometimes people say that to be weenies but I'm telling you it is more obvious van Marilyn Monroe having an affair with JFK." Bobby Martrich Chief meteorologists for EPAWA

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:10 pm

Since wind is going to be a major factor with this storm I mean wow at the 110mph gusts over the water with the earlier run. Has anyone considered doing a wind map like u guys do snow maps? I know u haven't but like a map showing the areas with the strongest and the ranges of speeds in each area? Just a thought. I'd do it but dunno how and wouldn't know where to put the areas.
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:16 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Since wind is going to be a major factor with this storm I mean wow at the 110mph gusts over the water with the earlier run. Has anyone considered doing a wind map like u guys do snow maps? I know u haven't but like a map showing the areas with the strongest and the ranges of speeds in each area? Just a thought. I'd do it but dunno how and wouldn't know where to put the areas.
Sure

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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:16 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Scott, its their on every model with different intensities, but will the energy actually be their, or is it a error? Well see at 0z, but I think it might be a error. Just doesn't look right to me, but i could be wrong.

LMFAO


"Yeah but even a monkey can figure out that the European model surface depiction is completely wrong. Sometimes people say that to be weenies but I'm telling you it is more obvious van Marilyn Monroe having an affair with JFK."  Bobby Martrich  Chief meteorologists for EPAWA  
HAHA!

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Post by ClimateControl Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:27 pm

Hope no one minds that I post this to educate those not in the know on Met talk:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2009/03/meteorologists_and_their_zany.html
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Post by sroc4 Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:28 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 5 Untitl10

So Ace where you have where you think should be the LP is where it should develop in association with the energy in the trough, but look at all the energy out ahead of it in the STJ East of Sc/Ga coast.  Im concerned with that energy.  That energy out ahead of the trough of the base has been showing up consistently.  I mentioned this a few days ago when we were looking at both the euro and CMC were showing the double barreled low soln.  Its something to watch.  I am concerned that the energy in the base doesnt catch up the that southern energy until it is too far east which is when the more organized LP turns north.  At that point too late.  

We also have to keep in mind that only tonights 00'z will start to have better sampled data.  Any real trends that are going to happen will be between 00z tonight and 12z Monday.  
March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 5 <a href=March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 5 Ecmwf_14" />

March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 5 <a href=March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 5 Ecmwf_16" />

Ace your map is on facebook, and some of the big wigs are in absolute aggreement with you.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:29 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 5 Untitl10

So Ace where you have where you think should be the LP is where it should develop in association with the energy in the trough, but look at all the energy out ahead of it in the STJ East of Sc/Ga coast.  Im concerned with that energy.  That energy out ahead of the trough of the base has been showing up consistently.  I mentioned this a few days ago when we were looking at both the euro and CMC were showing the double barreled low soln.  Its something to watch.  I am concerned that the energy in the base doesnt catch up the that southern energy until it is too far east which is when the more organized LP turns north.  At that point too late.  

We also have to keep in mind that only tonights 00'z will start to have better sampled data.  Any real trends that are going to happen will be between 00z tonight and 12z Monday.  
March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 5 <a href=March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 5 Ecmwf_14" />

March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 5 <a href=March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 5 Ecmwf_16" />

Ace your map is on facebook, and some of the big wigs are in absolute aggreement with you.  
Are you serious lol. Where on facebook?


Last edited by Quietace on Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:33 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:30 pm

I'd say do a wind map later Imo cut its poll to early to tell even tomorrow I imagine but u r the expert. Lol I will say this though ace told u the wind speeds were go b higher than sandy. Not over land likely but still a amazing storm to watch unfold hopfully.
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:31 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I'd say do a wind map later Imo cut its poll to early to tell even tomorrow I imagine but u r the expert. Lol I will say this though ace told u the wind speeds were go b higher than sandy. Not over land likely but still a amazing storm to watch unfold hopfully.
Well include it with our snow maps when we eventually make them.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:34 pm

How do u guys find this wx stuff on fb? Ur famous ace hopefully u r spot on. Already at .7 qpf for nyc and many feel it goes further west I have feeling we go get all out blizzard conditions regardless of the amount of snow. And with time Imo think snows will go up. Btw 65 here! What a tease we better get a crazy storm to make up for the bipolar wx. Lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:36 pm

Cool best forum ever!
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Post by sroc4 Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:39 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I'd say do a wind map later Imo cut its poll to early to tell even tomorrow I imagine but u r the expert. Lol I will say this though ace told u the wind speeds were go b higher than sandy. Not over land likely but still a amazing storm to watch unfold hopfully.
Well include it with our snow maps when we eventually make them.

In AWE

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:39 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:How do u guys find this wx stuff  on fb? Ur famous ace hopefully u r spot on. Already at .7 qpf for nyc and many feel it goes further west I have feeling we go get all out blizzard conditions regardless of the amount of snow. And with time Imo think snows will go up. Btw 65 here! What a tease we better get a crazy storm to make up for the bipolar wx. Lol
Haha, no one knows who made the map because theirs no name on it. Just want to see what people are commenting on it.

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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:40 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I'd say do a wind map later Imo cut its poll to early to tell even tomorrow I imagine but u r the expert. Lol I will say this though ace told u the wind speeds were go b higher than sandy. Not over land likely but still a amazing storm to watch unfold hopfully.
Well include it with our snow maps when we eventually make them.

In AWE
Oh ok, not on facebook so cant join them. Have a link? Haha


Last edited by Quietace on Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:45 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:44 pm

Ace no fb? Lol get with the 21st century lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:45 pm

I can tell u if u tell me the username
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:46 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Ace no fb? Lol get with the 21st century lol
I have a weather twitter and personal twitter thats it.

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