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March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0

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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:47 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I can tell u if u tell me the username
AWE

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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:48 pm

Euro Ensembles are running. Should be out to time frame soon.

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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:00 pm

Hpc is saying feedback on the gfs and euro.
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:01 pm

Pretty good agreement at 72
March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 6 Eps_sl11

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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:03 pm

Hr 90
March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 6 Eps_sl13

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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:05 pm

96
March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 6 Eps_sl14

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:07 pm

This is simply way too far off the coast, EURO showing .7" QPF in NYC with the slp several hundred miles off the coast simply wont happen
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:13 pm

Ace is it just me or is that further west?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:14 pm

No not looks east that's no good
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Post by oldtimer Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:19 pm

Jman You got me lost Is it w or e

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:23 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Jman  You got me lost  Is it w or e  
It's a tad west of the OP EURO but also drier. Who cares about QPF at this point though at least the west trend continues albeit in small steps.
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Post by oldtimer Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:28 pm

Thx nutly At least we are Status Quo

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:31 pm

Sorry old timer I'm mobile a bit harder to see on phone
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:43 pm

Just got in a little while ago from a great day of golfing it was so nice out trying to catch up on this forum but a lot to read fill me in anyone looks like things have favored in the way of a mjor storm hitting us
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March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0

Post by algae888 Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:45 pm

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 421 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014 CTZ005>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-232030- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS- SOUTHERN NASSAU- 421 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE STORM WILL DEVELOP...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH. A SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF LESS THAN 100 MILES IN EITHER DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:36 pm

Ohh algae that sounds promising! Where is everyone? Its prolly the weather taking advantage like I just did before gets cold and we get slammed! I will accept no less lol.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:39 pm

heyskins, well upton above is not calling for at least 6 inches so that means it is moving more west, I think the winds will be a issue too wouldnt be surprised to see blizzard conditions maybe even warnings on day of. Its just going to be such a intense storm just depends on where it goes. Upton has held off on saying anything usually until they have good confidence so it is my thinking that we are in for it. This morning one model showed winds over the water gusting to 110mph! Not expecting that but 50+ is very possible IMO, and frank mentioned 40-50 or more this morning. Yes it was a beautiful day of course I had to have a migraine all day so stayed in until a while ago but its back now sun didnt help. We will see 18z GFS is coming in now am hoping its not having issues still.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:41 pm

sroc whats AWE? couldnt find them on FB.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:51 pm

18z GFS appears to be further west correcting itself a bit from 12z.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032218&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=075
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:54 pm

ehhh still way east, not a big worry though, 00z through 00z tomorrow night will be much better sampled.
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Post by Taffy Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:55 pm

Amateur Weather Enthusiasts = AWE. Amateur Weather Enthusiasts of America (AWE-USA) | Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/AmWxEn

There is the link JMan


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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:56 pm

GFS was a extremely poor run.

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Post by crippo84 Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:57 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:18z GFS appears to be further west correcting itself a bit from 12z.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032218&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=075

Don't know where you see that. Looks to be a bit east to me. But again its 18z with no sampling. Still need to wait.
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:58 pm

@crippo84 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:18z GFS appears to be further west correcting itself a bit from 12z.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032218&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=075

Don't know where you see that.  Looks to be a bit east to me.  But again its 18z with no sampling.  Still need to wait.
Your correct. Its very very east. NOT WEST.

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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:58 pm

About .1 of QPF for the coast. Snow showers.

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