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March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0

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Post by algae888 Sun Mar 23, 2014 4:30 pm

MODELS PHASE THIS ENERGY...AND AS THEY HAVE SHOWN
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...PHASE TO THE POINT WHERE A 500MB LOW
CLOSES...BUT OCCURRING TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TENDENCY OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS TO BE DRAWN INTO THE DIRECTION OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW POSITION...NOT EXPECTING MODELS TO HAVE ANY EVENTUAL SIGNIFICANT
WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ALSO...SUNY STONY BROOK
ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IMPLIES THAT THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
STORM HAS SHIFTED FROM MORE OF A POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO MORE OF
AN INTENSITY UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS THEREFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH FROM WHAT A CONSENSUS
IS NOW SHOWING.


latest from upton. so except for some residual snow this one is not changing coarse.
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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Mar 23, 2014 4:34 pm

@algae888 wrote:MODELS PHASE THIS ENERGY...AND AS THEY HAVE SHOWN
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...PHASE TO THE POINT WHERE A 500MB LOW
CLOSES...BUT OCCURRING TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TENDENCY OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS TO BE DRAWN INTO THE DIRECTION OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW POSITION...NOT EXPECTING MODELS TO HAVE ANY EVENTUAL SIGNIFICANT
WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ALSO...SUNY STONY BROOK
ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IMPLIES THAT THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
STORM HAS SHIFTED FROM MORE OF A POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO MORE OF
AN INTENSITY UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS THEREFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH FROM WHAT A CONSENSUS
IS NOW SHOWING.


latest from upton. so except for some residual snow this one is not changing coarse.
Yep, mt holly basically saying the same thing. Sampling is not going to change the track much at all.

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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Mar 23, 2014 4:42 pm

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php

Mt hollys first map

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:35 pm

But the storm could do something we arent expecting. that is possible in my book. Wx does that as we all know from time to time.
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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:39 pm

Latest Euro ensembles
Black slash means no significant snow in area, Triangle means yes.
You do the math....
March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 19 Euro_e12
March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 19 Euro_e13

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:42 pm

So a 22% chance, not impossible but yes unlikely.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:44 pm

Looks like its going almost due east?!

March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 19 18z_gf10
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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:45 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:So a 22% chance, not impossible but yes unlikely.
21.56862745% per the ECMWF ensembles. Every other one is a non accumulating snow, or nothing.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:46 pm

March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 19 Gfs_210

Maybe not still the double barrell going on.
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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:47 pm

When watching a model run, why are you looking at mslp and 10m winds? Looks at the surface, 700, 500, and 250. Not the winds.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:49 pm

I am not really understanding those yet. But ok I will stop posting the surface.
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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:49 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I am not really understanding those yet.  But ok I will stop posting the surface.
No post the surface, not the winds.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:50 pm

I don't even see those map options.
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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:52 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I don't even see those map options.
Um, all options
1) mslp, 850hpa temp, precip
2)700mb relative humidity and VV
3) 500mb vorticity
4) 250mb and windspeed


Last edited by Quietace on Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:53 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:53 pm

How are they listed I see 500's and stuff but winds, humidity I dunno which one
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:55 pm

stuff like this?

March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 19 Gfs_z510
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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:55 pm

Just keeps going further east, western parts of Nova Scotia may be on the western edge at this point, according to GFS anyway

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:58 pm

ok thx ace still dont see 500mb vorticity but ill look for it. Is hpa same thing as mb?
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Mar 23, 2014 6:01 pm

h5 id terrible, you can see how the trough axis is wayyyyyy way too far east
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 23, 2014 6:01 pm

We and even cape cod according to GFS have very little coming.

March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 19 Gfs_6h10


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 23, 2014 6:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 23, 2014 6:04 pm

Well..........you know things are bad for the snow weenies out their when only the RPM is left....lol
http://content.foxtvmedia.com/wfld/weather/FUTURECAST_NATIONAL.gif

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 23, 2014 6:05 pm

Dang what are the chances of that ace lol 0,01%
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Post by algae888 Sun Mar 23, 2014 6:09 pm

I know we are going to miss this storm but can the gfs be right. even boston and cape cod get hardly any snow nam has the same. man they are going to be real disappointed up their. snow lovers that is. this is now the 4th time in a row where models bring massive snow amounts and then that area gets nada. goes to show you how hard and rare are big snow storms. we should cherish everyone we get.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 23, 2014 6:16 pm

JB put out a long explanation around 3pm today totally against the models. I know you guys say he is wrong but why would he have such a idea if he knew he was wrong?  He basically says its going to happen when its upon us. And BR thinks that the trough its self could bring us some surprises. Just dunno there are sooooo many conflicting mets here.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Mar 23, 2014 6:48 pm

he said the same about the last 2 storms, hes a joke, wishcaster and hyper, i dont even consider him a real met
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