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March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0

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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:20 pm

I looked at the h5 map before looking at the surface and was surprised to see how far east lp was. at hr78 trough is just about neg. and and low just off nc coast. so that was quicker than 00 and 06 runs which should have steered the storm more north and west. do not know much about convective feedback but ace's description was clear. and probably why it moved northeast. also after hr 78 storm didn't strengthen like the 00 and 06 runs. was weaker probably for the same reason
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:22 pm

@algae888 wrote:I looked at the h5 map before looking at the surface and was surprised to see how far east lp was. at hr78 trough is just about neg. and and low just off nc coast. so that was quicker than 00 and 06 runs which should have steered the storm more north and west.  do not know much about convective feedback but ace's description was clear. and probably why it moved northeast. also after hr 78 storm didn't strengthen like the 00 and 06 runs. was weaker probably for the same reason
Its probable its the reason. W/O the CF, the isobars where facing almost due north. The low should have followed. But because of the CF, it headed NE

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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:29 pm

like to see the ensembles. would CF issues also affect the ensembles?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:42 pm

Wow some people on twitter really debating this out harshly!
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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:48 pm

12z GEM
March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 3 Cmc_pr14

March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 3 Cmc_sn12

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:51 pm

Ace did that come closer or further away? Cape still gets crushed, they in it for sure it seems
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Post by sroc4 Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:52 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Wow some people on twitter really debating this out harshly!

That's why this board is superior to all others. We have both young and old here, but we all seem to have adult conversations despite differences in opinions. For that I thank you all!!!!

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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:53 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Ace did that come closer or further away? Cape still gets crushed, they in it for sure it seems
Its a touch west, but its very very similar to the 0z run.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:56 pm

We need a good 75-100+ mile jog west, will we get it? I dont know, yes I did see the convective feedback but still not seeing any major trends as of yet, the problem remains the trough is too broad and the axis too far east and the storm bombs too late, the canadian maritimes look to be in for this monster, still adamant i think this is just not out storm, I really want it to happen I really do but i just dont think so
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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:56 pm

cmc passes just east of benchmark. Eastern half of li gets slammed. slightly longer to intensify compared to 00z. we need this storm to bomb out just a little quicker.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:01 pm

anyone have the wind map for the gem? Is it similar to the other ones posted?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:01 pm

12z UKMET kinda looks like GGEM. It closes off the trough sooner than the GFS though. So far, we seem to be in the same position as last night 00z.

March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 3 604052_708276209224561_1444038146_n

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:05 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z UKMET kinda looks like GGEM. It closes off the trough sooner than the GFS though. So far, we seem to be in the same position as last night 00z.

March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 3 604052_708276209224561_1444038146_n

big storm for coastal SNE but not us, issue is to get there it moved south to north, not the typical sw to ne which would put us in the axis and an inside the bm track, its just not good enough, needs to be south of li not cape cod
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:09 pm

Tom you know my position has been a glancing blow. But even that could deliver a few inches of snow. I'll gladly take it in late March and get the CPK snow record into the top 5, maybe top 3.

GGEM has a nice deformation band. Any further west, we get into 6+ amounts. It's just a beautiful storm and I wouldn't mind a glancing now. Better than out to sea.

March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 3 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f90

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:11 pm

12z GEFS is much further west than the GFS OP. Huge red flag there. We are all close to being crushed.

March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 3 Post-155-0-40374700-1395508084

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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:12 pm

the consistency on the models the last several runs is amazing
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:13 pm

Why is that a red flag is the GEFS what the GFS should have shown meaning its that much more west, looks like 6-8 there? Or is it better than the GFS?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:15 pm

Euro is coming it way interested in seeing that, if we go west on Euro oh boy.
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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:22 pm

a storm taking this track right over the benchmark and rapidly intensifying in bombing out usually gives New York City Metro 6 inches of snow les to the north and west and crushes Long Island Connecticut and Massachusetts
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Post by WeatherBob Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:58 pm

Where is everyone?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:58 pm

Gem ensembles bring .65 qpf into NYC. Wow

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Post by Quietace Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:59 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Gem ensembles bring .65 qpf into NYC. Wow
Thats a big shift wow.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:00 pm

Through 48 on euro, ridge axis is further west and more amplified

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:02 pm

Where are the winds at in regards to any westward tick on the gem ensembles for the area? 0.65 is def a step up from what we been talk about, what does that bring to CT? My parents live in Central coastal CT.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:04 pm

March 25th-26th Possible Coastal Storm Potential 2.0 - Page 3 1904139_679666225403477_1097256075_n

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