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January 2013 Long Range Thread

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 12, 2013 1:04 pm

The GFS run today was very fun to see.

Incredible blocking

Great ridging

MJO progression through 7

Storm signals between 20th-26th.

Sometime in that time period, there will be a storm.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 12, 2013 3:36 pm

January 2013 Long Range Thread - Page 3 Image21

Euro is showing 850mb temps sub -20C in the long range. Downright frigid!!!!

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Post by Snow88 Sat Jan 12, 2013 5:18 pm

Highs in the single digits for kJFK on the 12z GFS

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kjfk
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 12, 2013 9:28 pm

So if it where to get really cold thats not the best thing for snow correct? Then tends to keep storms suppressed.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 12, 2013 9:40 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:So if it where to get really cold thats not the best thing for snow correct? Then tends to keep storms suppressed.

Yes and no. We can still see northern stream storms come though the area such as clippers bring high ratio snowfalls. Then as the pattern relaxes, or when the PV begins to shift north, that will allow for southern stream interaction as well. So I think this can be a win-win situation by the time we get into the 20th of January. I'm very excited about the upcoming pattern.
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Post by Snow88 Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:57 pm

January 2013 Long Range Thread - Page 3 23jh1ma
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:58 pm

^^^^^^

Amazing.

This year will go down as the year of the SSW.

00z GFS was awesome. Plenty of storm chances coming.
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January 2013 Long Range Thread - Page 3 Empty Interesting Read

Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 13, 2013 3:15 pm

This is an amazing yet somewhat technical write up by a guy named Eric Webb discussing the suns influence on our weather, the current MJO, the Stratospheric warming event taking place, and how it all may influence the rest of our winter. Its a long read, but worth it. Between what this guy says and what JB has been saying I am really starting to buy into a cold and possibly snowy second half to the winter for the NE. Now whether or not this all comes to fruition is yet to be seen, but Eric Webb makes a compelling argument.

Eric Webb said:
"I see your comment and I honestly need to read up a lot more on scientific papers, etc to understand and get an idea on how the sun specifically effects earth's weather from magnetic fields through the stratosphere and troposphere. I think once I really understand and grasp those concepts, it will not only make me smarter, but give me a basis for how the weather, climate, and the sun are very interconnected (despite what the AGWers may tell you) I also need to understand the precise amount of energy change found throughout the 30 day sunspot cycle and how each indicator of solar activity functions (includes sunspot cycles, solar flux, AP, TSI, etc..) and what the effects are as a result of variations within these indicators. What I do understand for the moment is that with this current increase in solar activity, this increase in energy received to earth's surface would have the greatest impact on the equatorial Pacific. The reason is because as temperature increases, so does the amount of energy between each degree increment of change, and considering that the oceans have 1000x the energy capacity of the atmosphere this change in the amount of energy with increasing temperature is amplified. So, taking all of this information into account and considering that the equatorial Pacific has the greatest amount of area covering the equator, and the fact that the amount of energy received to earth's surface is greatest in the region that sees more direction radiation (near the equator) then it makes sense as to why a subtle change in the sunspot cycles will have a much greater effect in the exchange in energy over the Pacific. When you look at the MJO, which was in and around the Indian Ocean for much of December, and compare it to the global ocean temperature anomaly map, you'll see that one of the main reasons as to why the MJO (essentially a region in which there is rising motion over the tropics) the higher ocean temperatures promote rising air. Once the sunspot cycles began to increase, (as mentioned above), this had the greatest influence on the equatorial Pacific, and with the above normal temperature anomalies towards the western Pacific, it would make sense as to why the MJO would come out strongly into the Pacific. I did mention the models were trying to hold the MJO back into Octants 6 and 7, and the reason I has believed they were wrong is because the Atlantic is also considerably warm and deep into its warm AMO, and it would not make any sense for the MJO to just go back into the "igloo" before at least coming through the Atlantic, and it seemed that with a below normal east-central Pacific, there was a "disconnect" between the warmth over the western Pacific and the Atlantic, but when you look at some of the newest MJO forecasts, notice how they have corrected more towards octants 7 and are starting to approach octant 8 in the longer range. The MJO in these octants promotes plenty of cold and snow for the eastern US, because when you get rising motion over the tropics, your essentially forcing more thunderstorms to form over a particular region of the tropics, and over a period of time, the pressures fall due to the thunderstorm activity. When the mid-latitude troughs swing through in a west-east fashion, and with a general region of high pressures found near 30 degrees north and south latitude "horse latitudes" these lower pressures over the tropics can essentially "break through" this natural region of high pressures, allow for a mid-latitude trough over the region of rising motion to dig deeper and become stronger as a result. This stronger trough allows for more cold air to be infused within the trough, and under our current situation, such a pattern with one of the strongest stratospheric warming events on record forcing a displacement of the polar vortex, such a change in the MJO could have very dramatic results and could lead to abnormally cold weather beginning in late January, and potentially lasting through February, which is something I have been saying since early December. This is also supported by the northern hemisphere snowfall anomaly for October which showed well below normal snowfall in early October, then went to very above normal in the 2nd half of the month, suggesting that winter would start out slow, but the 2nd half would be much colder and snowier than the 1st half, and then when I witnessed similarities in the 500 millibar pattern with December 1984, and with the oncoming stratospheric warming event from the Kelvin Wave, displaced polar vortex at different levels of the atmosphere, and the increased snowpack (increased snowpack reflects 85-90% of solar radiation which cools the surrounding air and forces the slowing of air molecules within this airmass, the layers of atmosphere above, in order to compensate for this contraction of the lower layers of the atmosphere, the layers above expand, thus indicative of warmer air. As the snowpack remains high, this layer of cold air spreads like a disease upward through the troposphere and causes further warming in the layers above, and combined with the Kelvin Wave, this leads to a major stratospheric warming event which in turn leads to significant cooling at the surface and helps to drive the AO, NAO negative and lead to major arctic outbreaks over the US.)"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 13, 2013 11:44 pm

00z GFS has multiple storm chances in its run. One is bound to produce in this pattern. Just has to
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 13, 2013 11:54 pm

Wow...cold...

January 2013 Long Range Thread - Page 3 Gfs850mb-hgt_tmp_186

This would be high's in the 20's and upper teens
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Post by Math23x7 Mon Jan 14, 2013 2:00 am

Maybe it's just me, but I just saw the 0Z Euro and the much-anticipated pattern change seems to keep getting pushed back. Even though temperatures will be "colder" by the end of the week, the highs in Central Park will be in the upper 30s to around 40 and the lows will be in the mid to upper 20s, which average to slightly above average for this time of year. While the 0Z Euro does show much colder air moving in early next week, I recall seeing frigid air come in much earlier on model runs several days ago. Once this arctic blast comes within five days, I will find it more convincing. But once again, that's just me.

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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 14, 2013 6:43 am

Math23x7 wrote:Maybe it's just me, but I just saw the 0Z Euro and the much-anticipated pattern change seems to keep getting pushed back. Even though temperatures will be "colder" by the end of the week, the highs in Central Park will be in the upper 30s to around 40 and the lows will be in the mid to upper 20s, which average to slightly above average for this time of year. While the 0Z Euro does show much colder air moving in early next week, I recall seeing frigid air come in much earlier on model runs several days ago. Once this arctic blast comes within five days, I will find it more convincing. But once again, that's just me.

Every time I check NWS temps for this week, they go up.No snow this week, that's three weekd burned in January.That leaves only 6 weeks for good snow weather.March is iffy and has been very mild the last two or three years.The clock is ticking.Let's hope this "arctic invasion" finally does arrive to set up cold air for a significant snowstorm. Neutral
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Jan 14, 2013 7:54 am

Just like last year, the teleconnections look like they are all over the place, no consistency, MJO teases us with a quick shot in 7 then back to 6, others teasing us staying close to neutral Sad
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 15, 2013 1:08 am

GFS shows Highs in the teens for us end of next week. Lol
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Post by Noreaster Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:31 pm

Models are showing a possinle miller b next week. And a possible bigger threat after that. Things couls be getting interesting...or the models could be teasing us as they like to do lately.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:45 pm

January 2013 Long Range Thread - Page 3 Gfs-mslp-qpfshort-us_hr153

GFS for next week!!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:53 pm

And there is also this in the long range...

January 2013 Long Range Thread - Page 3 Gfs-mslp-qpfshort-us_hr300
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:54 pm

Oh, I almost forgot one. Here is the extreme long range

January 2013 Long Range Thread - Page 3 Gfs-mslp-qpfshort-us_hr348
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:18 am

00z CMC for early next week!! WOW

January 2013 Long Range Thread - Page 3 184540_550615881634231_2127473495_n
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2013 1:41 am

The EURO develops a storm but misses us with a late phase. So:

GGEM is a huge hit

GFS scrapes us

EURO misses us

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 16, 2013 7:11 am

Yeah Frank. 21-23thr next week is really looking promising. I hate to project so far out but I really like what Im seeing. The Tele's have really been showing consistency in the past 2-3days in that time frame, and are setting up nicely. Strong northern s/w phases with a weak southern s/w somewhere of the Carolina coast, and heads up the coast....Miller BBBBBB. Oh and the 6z NAM and GFS got real interesting for immediate coast esp eastern LI for Fri. Both shifted N and W. LI could make it into the western edge of the precip. Warrants attention.
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Post by Snow88 Wed Jan 16, 2013 9:01 am

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS144.gif
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Post by Snow88 Wed Jan 16, 2013 7:20 pm

Check this forecast out from Caribou,Maine

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Caribou&state=ME&site=CAR&textField1=46.8668&textField2=-67.9906

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2013 7:38 pm

Well holy crap.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:15 pm

GFS for the mid range storm, 23rd, is a wide miss. What is happening is the ridge in the west is collapsing and the northern stream is not digging enough into the trough for a phase. It's amazing to me how a weak s/w can influence a ridge by that much. We need the ridge to maintain itself. This is what has been killing us all winter. With the MJO expected to remain active in 7, I think that storm still has a chance and should not be dismissed.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 17, 2013 2:00 am

The 00z GFS is seriously lost in its mid to long range. The ensembles are entirely different, as is the EURO. With the MJO progressing through phase 7, there is no way we see a cutter pattern re-appear like we have been dealing with.
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Jan 17, 2013 2:33 am

Frank, with the way weather.com has raised next weeks low temperatures for NYC out of the teens and into the 20s and with some indication by some models that mild air may return by the end of next week, do you think this will be the first winter where it fails to get below 20 degrees in NYC? (22 is the lowest it's been so far)

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