NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

+6
Snow88
NjWeatherGuy
Dunnzoo
jtswife
SNOW MAN
Frank_Wx
10 posters

Page 1 of 2 1, 2  Next

Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 09, 2013 11:32 am

No sense in having two threads. So lets just work on one thread per month for both short and long range discussions. Also, why am I 9 days late in starting a February thread? Lol, someone else could have done it. I think a wild February has just begun. Fasten your seatbelts.
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20711
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 10, 2013 9:55 am

The potential PD storm is the one standing out in my mind, not this VD storm. The euro ensembles still have a storm system along the coast at that time with a nice -NAO in place. There is also an Atlantic ridge showing up, even on the operational, that would prevent southern stream s/w's from slipping away out to sea. They would ride the flow either up or off the coast. That also raises the possibility though of a phase offshore with a disproportionate trough axis. However, given that this last storm did not show up on the models until 5 days prior, I think models are going to do the same thing with this one until data gets better sampled. In my opinion, using the ensembles for guidance is best at this point in time
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20711
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:54 pm

EURO Ensembles love Presidents Day Threat

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  46899_134493133386822_1152297251_n
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20711
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 11, 2013 12:36 am

GGEM and NOGAPS have a blizzard for next weekend.
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20711
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by SNOW MAN Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:44 am

Frank will this potential PD storm affect Eastern Pa. this time? I'm feeling left out with only 4.5 in. Sad
SNOW MAN
SNOW MAN
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1358
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-01-13
Age : 62
Location : Marshalls Creek Pa.

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by jtswife Mon Feb 11, 2013 8:45 am

from accuweather.com


AccuWeather.com meteorologists will be monitoring the developments of a potential major storm. There are some early indications that a storm loaded with moisture and great potential for heavy precipitation may track eastward from the southern Plains and the Ohio Valley early this weekend, then up the East Coast later in the weekend.
jtswife
jtswife

Posts : 59
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-13
Location : West Islip, Ny

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 11, 2013 8:49 am

SNOW MAN wrote:Frank will this potential PD storm affect Eastern Pa. this time? I'm feeling left out with only 4.5 in. Sad

Yes, PA would be involved in this threat.


Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20711
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by SNOW MAN Mon Feb 11, 2013 9:11 am

Thanks Frank. I hope to get in on some LARGE snowfall totals this time around. People I work with laughed at me when I told them what your predicted snowfall totals were going to be for the last storm. : Needless to say their not laughing now,plus i think you've gained a few more followers. Smile
SNOW MAN
SNOW MAN
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1358
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-01-13
Age : 62
Location : Marshalls Creek Pa.

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:31 am

GFS shows the PD Storm.

Another Godzilla in the making

HERE WEEEEE GOOOOO
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20711
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:49 am

12z Canadian, UKMET, and NOGAPS show a HECS this weekend.

OMG

Is this really happening?
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20711
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by Dunnzoo Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:52 am

wow, busy month, looks like another event on the 20th! This weekend is going to be crazy, the one good thing is it is a holiday weekend for most, so people will heed the warnings after what happened this past storm and stay home!
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4527
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 60
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:51 am

The period between February 26th and March 7th is favorable for a storm. The NAO will begin to relax a bit and the STJ gets active for one last "hoorah" before the MJO crashes into the COD. Ive seen a pretty potent northern stream s/w on the h5 maps around the 26th. If the ridge maintains itself in the west combined with the retreating block, I think we can pull another storm out. We'll see what happens. My advice is take a few days off and relook at things middle to end of next week.
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20711
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 16, 2013 12:06 pm

Agree, we'll drive ourselves crazy continually looking at this stuff, considering the last couple busts. I vote for taking a break for a while, and hopefully tracking something that's worth it later.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by Snow88 Sun Feb 17, 2013 2:33 pm

I don't see any snowstorms or major storms at all in the next week .. We just had a 2 week period of cold temps with a big snowstorm mixed in, thanks to the MJO rolling through 8-1-2. Now, the mjo is going into 3-4-5 before possibly going into the COD. After it goes into the COD, we have to see which phase it comes out in. That will tell us if we will get any more storm threats. As of now, winter is done for the foreseeable future.
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 33
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 17, 2013 2:37 pm

Anthony thats unlikely of you to say that. Lol

But ill have to agree. Nothing to see here
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20711
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Feb 17, 2013 3:27 pm

Yea, doesn't look so good from now on the models, the next 2, warm and not enough precip, bad storm placement, after that, doesn't look good.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by SNOW MAN Mon Feb 18, 2013 5:36 pm

Has anyone looked at HM's blog on Accuweather ? I would love to believe him, but I have some big doubts about his forecasts.
SNOW MAN
SNOW MAN
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1358
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-01-13
Age : 62
Location : Marshalls Creek Pa.

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 18, 2013 6:11 pm

It's Henry, if he says snow, you can just about bet on rain and warmth to come our way.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:25 pm

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  525708_302560083200359_156721088_n

EURO Control shows a massive Roidzilla March 2nd. Lol
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20711
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 19, 2013 6:41 am

So as Frank showed above the Euro control has a large storm in the long range....aaaaaaannndddddd..........IF the 0z GFS run were to play out verbatim an intense Miller B between the hrs of 252-276 would dump 1-3 feet (or more) of snow to all of NE. Following that between the hrs of about 276-360 what appears to be a Norlun trough sets up, and it continues to snow from PA to NJ to Mass, and everywhere in between throughout that entire time frame. So that's 108hrs, or 4.5 strait days of snow. And actually hr 372 also still has flurries in the area so I guess as much as 5 days of snow. Since I am a small animal vet I will leave the farm animal noises to Francesco Paparatto and say Woof/Meow! (Please Weenies take this with a grain of salt)

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7362
Reputation : 299
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 19, 2013 2:04 pm

I Can't wait for that 4 day Norlon Trough. So what are we talking at least 6 feet? I'll spread the word.

CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6827
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 101
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 19, 2013 2:43 pm

This is why I don't look at the GFS or any model over 84-100 hours anymore. I was wondering what you guys were talking about, then I checked last nights run, sure enough, tons of snow in the long range. Today's 12z, rainstorms followed by a couple OTS with dryness. These runs change so much it's not worth it IMO.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:45 pm

Hey CP 4-6 ft is reasonable except in the snow hole over Tom where he will only get 2. Tom I dont think anyone in here is taking that or any of the long range too seriously at this point except to say that there are still several opportunities poss for snow, big or little, through the first week or so of March. If they happen they happen; if they don't they don't. Fantasy or not, long range or not, when was the last time you saw that as a soln on any model at any time? I just thought it was cool to scroll through and actually imagine what a miller b that lasts 1-2days immediately followed by 3-4days of an inverted trough with snow throughout would be like while sipping my coffee this morning. Come on you cant tell me that at least for a brief moment you didn't picture it in your mind?? Epic

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7362
Reputation : 299
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:56 pm

Man that storm the EURO control showed was just crazy. That'd be the '93 that the entire coast needs opposed to how '93 was for inlanders. That would be a beautiful thing if it came true, but I'm fairly sure it wont lol.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by SNOW MAN Tue Feb 19, 2013 6:31 pm

I got 2inches of snow today and no rain at all. So much for the forecast of a wintry mix changing to rain. Very Happy
SNOW MAN
SNOW MAN
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1358
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-01-13
Age : 62
Location : Marshalls Creek Pa.

Back to top Go down

February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread  Empty Re: February 2013 General Discussions/Long Range Thread

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 2 1, 2  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum