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Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jun 30, 2014 12:19 pm

Right now, my forecast is mainly rainy conditions Thursday into Friday with 1-2 inches possible. Most of the rain will come from the draped front along the trough, not the tropical entity itself. If 91L shifts west on future guidance, 2-3+ inches of rain is possible with wind gusts as high as 50 mph along the immediate coastlines. We'll see if the latter forecast becomes a concern, but right now I'm going with the first forecast.

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Post by Snow88 Mon Jun 30, 2014 12:47 pm

12z GFS is really wet for the area from Wednesday - Friday night. Looks like a washout for the 4th.

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Post by amugs Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:57 pm

Latest from WPC - eastern seaboard soaker and issues may be more than just that for some.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 5 10489901_724948357572083_6023458218726882228_n

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 30, 2014 5:28 pm

Mt. Holly HWO Mentions it now. I know it isn't saying there WILL be effects but the fact that there is HWO about it means to me to keep watch.

THEREAFTER...MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EVENTUAL TROPICAL SYSTEM
FORMING OFF OF FLORIDA AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE CAROLINAS
LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN OFF TO THE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANY IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE DETERMINED BY SIZE AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND ITS TOO EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY KNOW THE OUTCOME FOR OUR
AREA. FIRST WE NEED A NAMED STORM.

Recon came back with TS force winds but did not give it TD status yet. Meanwhile Euro remains steady with its bullish strength and totally misses the area. Some of the other models are closer. Once it turns north IMO we will get better tracking and when recon has a TD or storm.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jun 30, 2014 7:11 pm

On any models does the trough capture the storm and has the high moved more west.
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Post by algae888 Mon Jun 30, 2014 7:27 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:On any models does the trough capture the storm and has the high moved more west.

well upton thinks the trough captures the storm and steers it OTS. the rain that we get this week like frank stated and most meteorologist are forecasting is coming from the front that will take 2-3 days to cross our area and not from any tropical system. pwats are going to be over 2 so we can get very heavy rainfall. on other note just came back from robert moses state park in western Suffolk co. and sea temp was in the low 60's. I know some on here have said sst are warmer than normal in the atlantic this year but not LI not today anyway. I think this tropical system is going to have a hard time to get strong and if it does it's going to be more of a noreaster than hurricane imo. plus unless i'm seeing incorrectly most of today's guidance shows a weak and small system passing to far east of us to have an impact. I do not have euro however
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Post by amugs Mon Jun 30, 2014 7:57 pm

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the area of low
pressure east of Florida.

1. Updated: An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is
investigating the area of low pressure centered about 110 miles east
of Melbourne, Florida. While the low is well defined, the
associated thunderstorm activity is just below the organizational
threshold required to initiate tropical cyclone advisories.
Environmental conditions continue to be favorable for development,
and only a slight increase in the organization and persistence of
the thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a
tropical depression.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that peak sustained
winds with the low are about 30-35 mph. The low is moving
southwestward at around 5 mph, but is expected to turn westward
tonight and northward by Wednesday when it will be near the east
coast of Florida. If this system becomes a tropical cyclone, a
tropical storm watch could be required for portions of the central
or northern Atlantic coast of Florida. A turn toward the northeast
near the southeastern U.S. coast is expected by Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Franklin

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Post by amugs Mon Jun 30, 2014 7:59 pm

Only time will tell but it looks like Arthur will do what most of our trop type storms due as they head up this way take a turn North East but bring us the rains as it moves this way.

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Post by amugs Mon Jun 30, 2014 8:01 pm

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 5 BrZ4wMCIcAARDJ6


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Post by amugs Mon Jun 30, 2014 8:03 pm

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 5 Rgb-animated

Here it is looking to become Arthur.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 30, 2014 11:15 pm

We have TD #1. I am in the cone cusp of 10-20% and thats the center. we do not need to be in the center to have effects. Look at this:

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.1N 79.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.0N 78.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

Latest on TD 1:

11:00 PM EDT Mon Jun 30
Location: 27.6°N 79.1°W
Moving: SW at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

TS watches up for parts of FL. Thats all we can say for now. Oh Euro shows a strong hurricane cat 1 maybe low 2. But yes offshore, but may change now that we have a TD. Mayb it will go out even sooner maybe it won't.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jul 01, 2014 12:12 am

Still a lot of uncertainty. My position hasn't changed since this mornings forecast (page 7). We'll see what tomorrow's models say.

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Post by algae888 Tue Jul 01, 2014 5:54 am

from nhc... Numerical guidance shows favorable conditions for intensification
with weak shear and developing upper-level outflow over the cyclone
during the next 72 hours or so. The official intensity forecast
now shows the system becoming a hurricane
, which is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus. By the end of the forecast
period, the global guidance indicates that the cyclone will merge
with a baroclinic zone near Nova Scotia, which should result in
extratropical transition.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 27.6N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 27.9N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 28.5N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 29.5N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 30.8N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 34.3N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 39.5N 69.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 44.0N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

they now expect td1 to become a hurricane as it passes near 40n/70w however it is a very weak one and very small for a hurricane, which we need to take into account, that will be moving quickly by us as hurricanes often do when they reach our area. heavy rain not directly associated with td1 will be the primary concern along with dangerous rip currents. remember that hurricane force winds are usually only near the center of a hurricane and sometimes displaced to the east of the center. so in all likelihood only the far eastern coastal waters should have a chance to see hurricane force winds and probably for a short time.

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Post by algae888 Tue Jul 01, 2014 6:11 am

another interesting and unusual thing to note is that td1 will be strengthening as it moves north of hatteras ( it should only be a t/s then) into the mid and north atlantic. usually these storms weaken as they move north into the colder waters.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jul 01, 2014 8:53 am

@algae888 wrote:another interesting and unusual thing to note is that td1 will be strengthening as it moves north of hatteras ( it should only be a t/s then) into the mid and north atlantic. usually these storms weaken as they move north into the colder waters.

There's a 250kt. jet streak north of the area as this system moves up the coast. That will help pressures to drop, hence the strengthening.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:02 am

Yeah looks impressive this morning going to be AArthur soon. If track holds we are good as Frank said any westward movement of that high west and will bring it closer. GFS really blows it up now looks to go extra tropical but may not do so completely as it passes whereever that may be. I know we do not trust in JB alot but hes goin crazy over this thing thinking its going to overperform, I like the guy and even I had to laugh when he said it may be a cat 3 on his twitter. However IF he ends up being right by some crazy reason watch out.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:08 am

Algae told you about the models I had a feeling they would catch onto the Euro, I really trust in Euro for the tropics.
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Post by algae888 Tue Jul 01, 2014 1:03 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Algae told you about the models I had a feeling they would catch onto the Euro,  I really trust in Euro for the tropics.
jman today's 12z models has the gfs strongest and closest to the coast however the nam and cmc are rather unimpressive and much further east. all models indicate a miss for our area and I happen to agree. still to close for comfort though.
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Post by algae888 Tue Jul 01, 2014 1:09 pm

we now have T/S Arthur. 40mph winds and pressure of 1007mb. it's 959 miles south/southwest of central park
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Post by amugs Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:27 pm

Okay - NHC was having communication issues with the recon mission this afternoon - not good - then they came back to say they have winds of 61Knots near the center of circulation - here is the latest path of this ts that will become a hcane.

If it takes the more westerly path even though it will be a fast mover our coastline at the Jersey shore will be in for some issues here folks - I am not saying Sandy like by no means but we have little protection and the Corps is still in the process of rebuilding the beaches from sand with that red/orangey  rocky crap sand they are pulling out of the Atlantic 1 mile off Sandy Hook.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 01, 2014 5:10 pm

The western side of the cone would not be a good track, high winds rain and surge.  Rainfall forecvast just offshore is over 5 inches!  Even though offshore system appears to get pretty large on GFS.  Euro 12z goes way OTS no total agreement yet.  Hurricane looks likely maybe cat 2.  Better to be prepared than not even though odds are we get rain and maybe some wind and rough surf.  Def going to ruin some holiday plans outside. Including mine :/
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:58 pm

Not concerned about Arthur. I'm actually becoming more confident he remains offshore. GFS is the closest to the coast and it still does not being tropical rains to the area. Like I said earlier, the rain we get this week will come from a frontal boundary. 

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 5 Gem_mslp_pcpn_neus_14

Above is the GGEM. An impressive system. But it should remain offshore. Could get a little windy along the immediate coast.

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Post by algae888 Tue Jul 01, 2014 8:27 pm

frank I agree totally I could see where Friday late afternoon and night is tranquil with light winds and no rain except over coastal waters and eastern LI. I do not think this system is going to affect us at all except rip currents.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 02, 2014 12:31 am

None the less impressive system forming an eye right now and the track did shift west a bit. I woulodnt write it off immediately still alot of uncertainty. HH went out unscheduled right now.
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Post by algae888 Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:29 am

latest from NHC....Data from two ASCAT passes between 02
and 03 UTC showed a broad area of 45-50 kt winds east and northeast
of the center.
In addition, NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft have found surface winds in the 45-50 kt range to
the south and northeast of the center, while also finding the
central pressure has fallen to about 996 mb. Based on all of
these data, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt...Arthur is still suffering the effects of dry air aloft being
entrained into the western half of the circulation...This lopsided structure suggests that
Arthur will not strengthen quickly in the short term. However, given
an otherwise favorable environment of warm water and weak wind
shear, all of the intensity guidance shows the cyclone becoming a
hurricane in 24 to 36 hours, and so does the official forecast..

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 28.4N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 29.3N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 30.5N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 34.2N 76.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 40.0N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 46.0N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0600Z 50.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Arthur forecast max winds are 85mph cat 1. with all of the hurricane force winds to the east of the center. unless arthur makes a direct hit over land(which is not forecast at this time) no one along the east coast should see hurricane force winds except the fish which is a good thing. main impact from Arthur will likely be to keep people away from the beach.

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