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Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

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Nyi1058
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Post by algae888 Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:34 am

upton's disco...BASED ON OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK...WHICH IS NEAR THE CENTER OF VARIOUS TRACK GUIDANCES...
TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NE FROM CAPE HATTERAS
AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NE ON FRI. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP DIRECT
WIND AND RAIN IMPACTS FROM ARTHUR OFFSHORE
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Post by Nyi1058 Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:35 am

So I'm reading correctly that my summer house in montauk is gonna be ok right ?? And fri nights fireworks should go on as scheduled ??

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:59 am

Yeah seems the bigger concern is the possibility of severe weather today and tomorrow. Unless something changes with Arthurs track looks to be just enough offshore to maybe only feed the rain we will get from the other system.
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Post by algae888 Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:02 am

@Nyi1058 wrote:So I'm reading correctly that my summer house in montauk is gonna be ok right ?? And fri nights fireworks should go on as scheduled ??

well Montauk has more risk than nnj closer to Arthur but even there should be ok. I do not know about fireworks could have lingering showers out east. just monitor storm today and tomorrow for any change in track.
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Post by Nyi1058 Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:35 am

@algae888 wrote:
@Nyi1058 wrote:So I'm reading correctly that my summer house in montauk is gonna be ok right ?? And fri nights fireworks should go on as scheduled ??

well Montauk has more risk than nnj closer to Arthur but even there should be ok. I do not know about fireworks could have lingering showers out east. just monitor storm today and tomorrow for any change in track.
will do!! I'll be checking here for updates. Like many others this place is the most accurate out of all the news stations

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 02, 2014 2:36 pm

Hurricane watches and TS warnings up for carolinas. NWS mentions for areas north of here to continue to monitor especially eastern areas, so as frank said likely, not here but still needs to be watched tropics can be sneaky. HH flight finding many 70mph+ winds may be a hurricane soon.
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Post by Quietace Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:35 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Hurricane watches and TS warnings up for carolinas.  NWS mentions for areas north of here to continue to monitor especially eastern areas, so as frank said likely, not here but still needs to be watched tropics can be sneaky.  HH flight finding many 70mph+ winds may be a hurricane soon.
It's looking extremely healthy even with the dry air fighting on the west side if the circulation. Looks like a nice eye forming too, should be a hurricane soon.

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Post by amugs Wed Jul 02, 2014 10:08 pm

Taking a west jog at this hour and may surprise by taking the western route - if this is the case he ain't going that far OTS from us and we up here have to pay close attention to it - planes are flying into this in a short bit - should be interesting.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 6 Hrrr_current_se

Nice eye has formed as well - could this be a FAY of 2008?? Made landfall 200 miles South of where predicted - HMMMMMMMMM!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jul 02, 2014 11:55 pm

It is right on track. It is likely to make landfall along the outer banks, maybe even a little west of there. Then it will make the turn east 
@amugs wrote:Taking a west jog at this hour and may surprise by taking the western route - if this is the case he ain't going that far OTS from us and we up here have to pay close attention to it - planes are flying into this in a short bit - should be interesting.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 6 Hrrr_current_se

Nice eye has formed as well - could this be a FAY of 2008?? Made landfall 200 miles South of where predicted - HMMMMMMMMM!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:57 am

Arthur is an impressive looking system. Even though there won't be much rain associated with it, the Jersey Shore and Long Island still have to deal with gusty winds, rip currents, and possible surge.

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Post by Nyi1058 Thu Jul 03, 2014 9:03 am

Frank are we looking at any rain for the east end of Long Island ? And time frame for it to end ? Just thinking about changing my 4th plans to the 5th lol depending if they change the fireworks

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jul 03, 2014 9:20 am

@Nyi1058 wrote:Frank are we looking at any rain for the east end of Long Island ? And time frame for it to end ? Just thinking about changing my 4th plans to the 5th lol depending if they change the fireworks

East end of LI is vulnerable for rain and gusty winds. I can't imagine they will have fireworks

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_neus_7

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Post by Nyi1058 Thu Jul 03, 2014 9:27 am

Ugh thanks frank ! I'll plan on it sat night lol!!

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Post by algae888 Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:17 pm

wow Arthur is really over performing. nhc now believes he will reach 105mph cat 2. good thing its staying mainly offshore. nc coast has to be wary though as it will be a close call there.
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Post by algae888 Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:20 pm

plus when Arthur turns extra tropical the cape into eastern Canada has to watch out it will be a very strong storm still. would not be surprised if they get most of the damage from him. btw seems weird calling a hurricane a he.lol
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:40 pm

@algae888 wrote:plus when Arthur turns extra tropical the cape into eastern Canada has to watch out it will be a very strong storm still. would not be surprised if they get most of the damage from him. btw seems weird calling a hurricane a he.lol

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:24 pm

Going down to FL for the 18th to 28th of this month, out of model range now but wondering if the tropics are going to give me any trouble. Looks quiet as far as the GFS/EURO go out so far but ya know how that goes...
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 03, 2014 9:29 pm

Hey guys uyeah up to 100mph hurricane! Algae, I know my hurricane stuff better than winter weather hehe. Anyways looks to stay away from here but I will be leaving to central CT tomorrow so I will be close to the east end of LI but north. I will let you guys know if I get anything. NHC states it may now make it to cat 3 status! Is that a record for first storm and July 4th, etc?
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Post by algae888 Sat Jul 05, 2014 12:00 am

Arthur did pretty much what was expected. reached 100mph(cat2) and just some fringe rains and high surf. minimal damage and no deaths so far. he was a storm for the fish. hopefully there will not be a landfall hurricane this year. I do not think Arthur will be remembered. Smile 
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:22 am

Yes it s was minnimal but I have seen some pics fromNC and I am sure som e people will remember it. Also Nantucket got hit pretty hard with flooding. Got breezin here in CT visit the fols and the power did flick once but nothing big. Certainly got chilly out for this weekend. Nothing to see if long range at this time.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 08, 2014 3:38 pm

Looks quiet in tropics on all models for next 5 days at least, you know I agree with algae that the farmers almanac is not to be relied upon, however I will give them some slight credit that they called for a hurricane threat to the south and a TS threat to the north but a week earlier than it actually happened.  I will be interested to see if their next threat to our area around July 23rd has any fruitation.  To me thats actually pretty amazing, although lucky too I suppose if you really think about it.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jul 20, 2014 8:07 pm

Canadian model wants to drop a tropical system over NJ 10 days from now.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 6 Gem_mslp_pcpn_neus_40

Right now, I do not expect this to happen. But will keep a close eye.

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Post by amugs Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:02 pm

Did the CMC complete its upgrade that was to happen or begin this spring if anyone knows??

Beautiful just iin time for my Jersey shore annual vacation in Belmar

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:41 pm

Heh, I was apprehensive to even mention this (just got a chance to look at the models now) since last time I got knocked for mentioning the CMC developing lows, and even better, check out this map, not one but two storms, I dunno seems bogus to me, happened a lot last year with the CMC, but yeah do have to watch nonetheless. Although there is one 10% chance area the NHC is watching now.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 6 Cmc_1211

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Post by Quietace Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:51 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Heh, I was apprehensive to even mention this (just got a chance to look at the models now) since last time I got knocked for mentioning the CMC developing lows, and even better, check out this map, not one but two storms, I dunno seems bogus to me, happened a lot last year with the CMC, but yeah do have to watch nonetheless.  Although there is one 10% chance area the NHC is watching now.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 6 Cmc_1211

Its not happening. Too much dry air over the area for it to develop, and the wind shear to the NW is a little strong.
Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 6 Nasa_d10
Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 6 Wg8sht10

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