NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Page 15 of 16 Previous  1 ... 9 ... 14, 15, 16  Next

Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:01 pm

Frank is a mysterious man lol, anyways sheesh this is more active than its been all season, yeah I heard the MJO is going to favor tropical development. Not usual for this much activity nearing middle of October. It is the slight uptick time in climatology of season though. Latest maps, two waves and STD 7, to be Fay weak though. 90L could be a big deal, may not affect land but could be second major.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 2pm_1010
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:02 pm

And the 5 day graphic, I find it hard to believe that monster low furthest west has such a low chance, IMO they will change.

30% on 90L now in 5 day.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 5_day10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 10, 2014 3:08 pm

Holy cow! headed back east (suspect after going west) major hurricane (would be Gonzalo presumably) with 141.5 mph gusts per Euro 12z, at 222 hrs.  A lot can still change but things are hmmmmmm def.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Euro_118

Update: Afterlooking closer it appears it gets tugged by that frontal at the very bottom, that will be a close call, and at 240 hrs its 966mb with 88.9kt winds on 12z Euro.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 10, 2014 5:25 pm

Due to the new nhc rules we now have sub tropical storm fay. Headed for burmuda.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 10, 2014 6:45 pm

According to sattelite 90L looks like its getting its act together fast and models have this developing within 48 hrs, IMO NHC has the percentages way too low, lets see if they up them at 8pm, or 2am.  This system is the one you all are talking about in the other thread with the Euro.

Wow:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/90L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:36 pm

Wow 8pm NHC upped from 20/30 to 20/60! Thats rare for NHC. This def bares watching and could develop into a depression soon.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by sroc4 Sat Oct 11, 2014 6:42 am

Depending on exactly where this wave travels it is going to run the gauntlet of islands and struggle to develop a low level circulation if it remains too close to the islands.  Without getting organized sooner rather than later this system will most likely miss the trough next week. No real ensemble support for that at all anyway.
Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Two_atl_5d0

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6869
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by algae888 Sat Oct 11, 2014 7:51 am

sroc the best chance this has of hitting the east coast is if the euro verifies with the closed/cutoff low over the Midwest. it can pull the storm in or up the coast. how ever euro is now an outlier for midweek. how many times have we heard that. never!! most likely scenario is the more progressive one gfs/nam are showing. like you mentioned yesterday the trough lifts and storms curves n/e ots. and jman tropics just do not want to cooperate this year. even when things start looking good they don't pan out. its just one of those years......
latest from nws....

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION...
MOVEMENT...AND TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND CLOSES OFF THE LOW AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMES CUT OFF FOR A TIME DURING THE MIDWEEK.
MEANWHILE THE NAM AND THE GFS REMAIN FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ONLY DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW...NEVER
BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLY FLOW. IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
WEST AS PER THE ECMWF THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE ECMWF MORE OR LESS AN OUTLIER
.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:20 am

Wow th he euro a outlier. I just can't buy that but ok. Lol things will change in one way or snother.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by amugs Sat Oct 11, 2014 9:13 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Wow th he euro a outlier. I just can't buy that but ok. Lol things will change in one way or snother.
That what they said about Sandy affraid  This far out but JB rode that one!! We wait and see but the tropics have been non existent this year Razz

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 11, 2014 11:42 am

So did I and I believe NHC said Sandy was going OTS too, So I am not saying anything is off the table until we have a clearer picture, once the system develops we will have a better idea. Note the GFS ensembles a few of them now show a slight turn to the west when they get way north. Before they were all OTS. But yes, although I wouldn't say non existant I would say very quiet.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by sroc4 Sat Oct 11, 2014 12:04 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:So did I and I believe NHC said Sandy was going OTS too, So I am not saying anything is off the table until we have a clearer picture, once the system develops we will have a better idea.  Note the GFS ensembles a few of them now show a slight turn to the west when they get way north.  Before they were all OTS.  But yes, although I wouldn't say non existant I would say very quiet.

Keep in mind this is a different set up to Sandy.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6869
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by algae888 Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:19 pm

So much for the Euro being an outlier. GFS and other models have now slowed down considerably and came in line with the euro.we are going to have a very amplified pattern for next week with a big ridge off the east coast and two troughs one in the middle of the country and one on the west coast. what impact it has on the tropical system still to be seen. but the slowest solution looks more likely now.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by amugs Sat Oct 11, 2014 5:42 pm

@algae888 wrote:So much for the Euro being an outlier. GFS and other models have now slowed down considerably and came in line with the euro.we are going to have a very amplified pattern for next week with a big ridge off the east coast and two troughs one in the middle of the country and one on the west coast. what impact it has on the tropical system still to be seen. but the slowest solution looks more likely now.


Al,

Euro is a superior model and when we get the GFS upgrade in 2015 we;ll see who leads the way on this. Euro has been an outlier before and has nailed things at this stage see what he runs tonight and tomorrow show.
Scott set up different yes but the bothersome aspect is the set up as you have pointed out and I was eluding to yesterday that the huge trough in the inidnaish/ohio area along with the big HP in the NA can steer this sucker towards the coast - only time will tell but things may get interesting around here mid week for sure - if not a storm then rain and dreary IMO. Said that at the beginning of the month with a big trough on the east coast - not far off 2 weeks out from what the euro was showing back then and the possibility of a coastal was there.

Check out the latest from the boys at Franks old weather bureau! I'll take this is a heart beat!!
http://epawaweather.com/2014/10/a-look-at-winter-2014-2015-part-2-climate-models/

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 11, 2014 7:56 pm

I do like the look of that winter forecast, less storms but higher amounts is cool with me bring it on!  As for this coming week, models are not showing much but I totally have seen things disappear off the models only to come back with a vengeance.  The euro and GFS really are far apart on the ULL and until they start to agree IMO the models won't have a good grasp, am I right? No its not the same setup as sandy and the fact that the GFS has that ULL pulling out by wednesday there are not too many days left for things to change about 8 model runs before its within 24 hrs, IF GFS is right. Seems odd to me that Euro lost the strong hurricane so quickly and the NHC still has high hopes for 90L with a 50/60 perfect chance. Also the longer range models show 91L developing and then around 160 hrs a system comes out of the southern caribbean and heads north and blows up into a monster, but thats way off, what are the tele connections etc, showing for next weekend into the following week? Now tropical strom Fay (not sub tropical and up to 70mph) looks good and is going to affect burmuda, would love to be there to see it, not severe enough to cause terrible damage but a cool storm to watch. I forsee by the end of October beginning of November possibly as many as 3 maybe more named storms in what seems to be a hyper end to the tropical seqason. We will see, I hope we get a good storm next week but no need for a Sandy!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by amugs Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:31 pm

18Z GFS says we get soaked - then again it is the 18Z we see what tomorrow says but things look to get interesting mid week!

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Gfs_namer_108_1000_500_thick

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 11, 2014 9:21 pm

Yes but as of right now mugs, isnt that assuming the ULL is the only thing to affect us?  Note the highlighted area in the Caribbean. Does anyone understand this map? 13% is highest, so 13% of what? Why wouldnt it go to 100%? I have yet to get someone to understand this.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Al_rtc10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 12, 2014 8:49 am

Looks like we have our next depression coming soon, 8am advisory states HH out today and it has a 70% chance of development. Euro did bring back the storm like I thought it would but no sings of it getting lifted north into or near the area. Things change but looks like our storm may be the ULL, then we have to watch the caribbean for what eventually looks to try and form a major coastal on the GFS and Euro.

BTW did anyone hear about the major microburst on Mt. Tom in Holyoke MA, on the day we thought we would get storms? It was 100+mph winds that basically took out a huge side of the mountain.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 12, 2014 1:09 pm

We will have Gonzalo today IMO, it already looks like a TS: Special NHC update at 10:35am:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1035 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located northeast of Bermuda.

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system located east of the Leeward Islands.

Updated: The small low pressure system located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands is continuing to show signs of
organization. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will
be investigating the system this afternoon to determine if a
tropical depression or a tropical storm has formed. Environmental
and ocean conditions are expected to generally be conducive for
additional development while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system
since tropical storm warnings and watches could be required for
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
later this morning or afternoon. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are expected to move across
the Leeward Islands starting later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Hurricane hunters go out in a bit. Its really cool to watch the recordings of the recon mission which you can do at myfoxhurricane.com and click on reconnisance flight on the top banner when it appears. It opens live google earth. I think once we have a named storm we will have a better idea of what Gonzalo might do, I have seen model tracks change drastically once storms have formed and once GFS and Euro are on board about the ULL.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 12, 2014 3:18 pm

We have ts gonzalo 40mph storm. Track is nw then shows ots. Dunno if that will change doubt it. Ull will be our storm this week but that coastal could be brutal around 23rd.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by amugs Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:15 am

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Two_atl_2d0

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:31 am

The tropics will continue to stay quiet it looks like. Upper level pattern does not favor any storm tracks toward the US.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 13, 2014 1:28 pm

Well depends of what u mean by quiet, as in landfalls yes but Gonzalo is posed to become a major storm. Whats the status of that low that was supposed to form around 22nd? Euro appears to have lost it while GFS still shows hints but nothing like it did.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by amugs Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:56 pm

Gonzalo recurving to far west to get captured by the cut off low or else we'd be talking about  the possibility of a hcan coming up the coast - Scott made this ppoint last Thurs/Fri in a post.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Post-564-0-88245400-1413228794

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:44 pm

Gonzalo is a absolute monster for a October classic look hurricane, Am very worried for Bermuda. They look to get a cat 3. Noted the ensembles track it ever so slightly to the west now spliting between a nnova sotia hit to further east. One lowly ensemble run takes it over northern Maine THAT would not be good but very unlikely, unless this thing decides to continue to chug NW and nor north, is that ULL strong enough to fight off a cat 4 hurricane? I understand its projected track but this system coming off the US seems pretty weak in comparison so what is keeping it from going NW?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 15 Empty Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 15 of 16 Previous  1 ... 9 ... 14, 15, 16  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum