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Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:54 am

Yes mugs, figured this one might actually get the attention of people versus the bogus GFS.  Euro has a powerful storm and those sgetti models moved ever so slightly further closer toward the coast for our area.  It is very close and we do not even have a TS yet.  Recon today may prompt a TD, at which point these will change.  Nonetheless, if the Euro is right in intensity and it gets close its going to be bad.  I will be in CT which is even closer by about 100 miles to where it is shown to go so even if it skirts I may be more affected than our area here.  Its all wait and see, the other models are not really on board but I find that a little more believable.  Below is the 00z Euro at NC skirt at 985, and a dang crazy 968 mb storm off to our east.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 4 00z_eu12


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Jun 29, 2014 10:01 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:55 am

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 4 00z_eu13
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:55 am

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 4 00z_eu14

Close call here. Yesterdays model had it inland and affecting us as a weak TS. As seen below.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:57 am

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 4 12z_eu10
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:57 am

So Euro has two powerful runs, and we def have to watch this, amazing so early in the season, and maybe the Euro is wrong but I am more inclined to believe it than the GFS. The GFS is a coward now due to its flop for weeks lol. CMC lost its strong OTS storm last night too. We will see midweek will def start to get interesting. Here is most recent NHC update:

A low pressure system located about 230 miles east of Jacksonville,
Florida, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
as it moves slowly southward. Upper-level winds are only marginally
favorable, and proximity to dry air to the north of the disturbance
could inhibit formation of a tropical cyclone over the next couple
of days. By Wednesday, however, environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development of this system
while it drifts southward and meanders offshore of the Florida east
coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 4 12z_eu11
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jun 29, 2014 11:07 am

Hoping it goes ots so my flight gets out Friday night....vaca time!

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Post by algae888 Sun Jun 29, 2014 11:55 am

jman you're wishing this. why in the world anyone would do that is beyond me! here is upton's take on euro and I agree! FOR NOW THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN HOW IT HANDLES THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG/NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS WEEK - SO HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN FAVOR OF
A GFS/GEFS/CMC/00Z ECMWF BLEND.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jun 29, 2014 2:49 pm

In regards to 91L, EURO has a strange track of taking the storm off the coast of Florida and driving it almost due north. That's pretty strange. I would lean more on the GFS/GGEM at this time.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 4 F120

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 4 F144

Two factors to watch:

1. Where does the Bermuda High position itself.

2. Is there a trough going negative trying to capture the storm and reel it into the coastline



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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jun 29, 2014 6:43 pm

Never said I was wishing it algae, where did I say hey I hope everyone gets crushed by a hurricane.....NEVER. Weather is going to do what it does and you know that.

Just keeping informed. GFS has caught on a bit but much weaker than Euro. Very close though, for comfort ok is that better algae. However a 1005mb storm we can handle.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 4 18z_gf12
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jun 29, 2014 6:45 pm

And thanks for the insight Frank, it is quite a track and it appears the other models are doing the same now. NAVGEM too takes it up coast as does Euro and GFS. Just so you know I would never wish a hurricane on anyone I am just amazed by the tropics, plenty of boards out there do wish it like storm2k. Many people there HOPING for a hurricane. Beats me.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jun 29, 2014 6:49 pm

12z Euro is even closer but a bit weaker, 156hrs isn't that far out, if it continues a westward pull then we will have to take heed but as of now looks OTS or closecall after Carolinas. Thnkgs change so keep informed, and this is IF it forms, we could have something much smaller.  Who knows in all actuality its going to do what it wants.And on a side note all winter you all wish for huge snowstorms which can cause damage and ruin peoples lives so even if I did wish a hurricane which I am not how would that be any different? I think we all get excited about weather, its just more common for us to get nor easters and snowstorms. Just sayin.


Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 4 Euro_110
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jun 29, 2014 6:59 pm

NAVGEM too has almost exact same spot but earlier 1002mb. The models seem to be coming into agreement. Frank do you still stand that the Euro is odd? Because it seems they all want to go due north but dont really develop till near NC.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 4 Navgem10
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:02 pm

If that 1029mb High comes a bit closer to the coast and the trough drops in faster than currently progged on the models, than this is a legitimate threat. As of now, I say lets give it another day.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:55 pm

Frank I think thats what the models have been showing for the trough anyways that it misses the pickup partially. Will watch the high pressure. Is it also possible that high moves a lot further east for a east OTS? Yes give it another day or two even, tropics are highly hard to predict until something has fully formed as we know. NHC still has it at 80% chance in 5 day. They are pretty sure this will be Arthur. HWRF goes nuts with it, look at this. Not good for the carolinas. Dunno past that, run doesnt go that far. Any credibility to this model?

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 4 Hwrf_m10
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Post by algae888 Sun Jun 29, 2014 11:45 pm

from upton THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN THE STRENGTH AND SLOWNESS
OF A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW LATER THIS WEEK WHEN COMPARED TO ALL
OTHER GUIDANCE
. HENCE A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION HAS BEEN TAKEN WITH
THIS FEATURE IN DETERMINING THE FORECAST.  nothing more to say
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Post by algae888 Mon Jun 30, 2014 12:00 am

boston nws...GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...ODDS HIGHLY FAVOR THAT IF
ANY STORM DEVELOPS IT WOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST
. IT COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
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Post by Snow88 Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:00 am

0z GFS is interesting with Arthur
Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 4 Whf8cp
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 30, 2014 6:14 am

Well Algae NWS may feel this way (and they are the pros) and I never said for sure that the Euro was right however all the models since last night are now on board developing it and get it close to the area so it needs to be monitored. Strength is always tough with a tropical system and as of right now its not doing much and probably will not untill tomorrow or wed. Just need to keep watch of these things, just like snowstorms they can change in a heartbeat and catch people off guard. Yes snow it is intreesting and even closer west than it was yesterday, seems to continue this trend. Recon will go out this afternoon if warrented and we will know more once they do.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jun 30, 2014 8:41 am

Getting a little more interesting now, as GFS has trended a little further west now. The biggest concern with 91L if it tracks into our area will be rain. But strength is uncertain at this time. First, we have to figure out the track. It won't be a hurricane if it gets here though. Not even a tropical storm, I feel.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jun 30, 2014 8:46 am

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 4 Gfs_uv250_us_19

Pretty strong jet streak north of the area as this storm tracks near our coast. Could help strengthen it a bit if it takes the EURO track.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jun 30, 2014 8:58 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Getting a little more interesting now, as GFS has trended a little further west now. The biggest concern with 91L if it tracks into our area will be rain. But strength is uncertain at this time. First, we have to figure out the track. It won't be a hurricane if it gets here though. Not even a tropical storm, I feel.
If this storm materializes, it would be disastrous for a lost revenue standpoint. Busiest beach weekend of the year washed out would leave a lot of beach businesses hurting. Mad 
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Post by essexcountypete Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:11 am

Why is it that when I get my tents down from the attic the forecast goes all fakakta? I'm planning a group camping trip and been watching the July 4th weekend on the long range and it was looking like low 80s, low chance of rain. I tune in this morning and now we're looking at a possible tropical deluge. Dang!
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Post by Snow88 Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:26 am

This was issued this morning. Valid from Thursday ( 7/3/14-7/5/14 )

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 4 Zdx0

My forecast has rain from Wednesday - Friday.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 30, 2014 12:01 pm

Yeah Frank IMO it could remain strong but due to the colder waters lose someof its charecteristics IF it moves closer to the coast. Some of the ensembles show direct hits on NYC as 980-990mb storms winds in the 50-75mph range. We will see, snow I think that map is old unless it updated earlier showed more rain our way. Yes this is updated showing enhanced rains. Further west and we will be in for some decent rains MAYBE wind ofcourse depending on strength, the sattelitle is looking like its getting together convection wrapping in. Carolinas def have to watch out.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 4 Precip10


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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 30, 2014 12:03 pm

Frank BTW ALOT of talk about this becoming a hurricane and possibly staying that way pretty far north due to its forward speed once it goes north its going to rocket. We will see, be aware and be prepared as they always say down south.
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