March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map

If you recall from 2 weeks ago in the long range thread, I said I had a "feeling" about the time period this week in producing a large storm for the east coast. A large and powerful storm will indeed develop, but it appears the coastal storm will miss us well east and bring the heaviest snows just to eastern LI and Cape Cod. As the pattern became clearer to me, I have consistently said this storm is likely to be a glancing blow for the area bringing light snowfall amounts. The potential was definitely there for something larger - much larger - but that does not look to be the case.

Right now, I think bands from the coastal storm will get into our area, but they will be the most outer bands of the storm bringing relatively light snow to the area. Could isolated areas see more than 2+? (especially NYC / Jersey Shore / west LI?), YES, that is possible, but the general snow amounts expected region-wide should be between 1-2 inches of snow. Parts of the area could easily see 3 inches of snow if some of these bands hang on longer than expected.

Timing:

Start: 2:00-4:00pm Tuesday

End: 1:00-3:00am Wednesday

There is still another day of models runs Monday and trending of a more western track can still occur. However, latest trends with models weakening the western ridge due to a strong Pacific upper level low coming onshore suggests to me this storm is likely to continue staying on a more easterly track. We'll see if anything changes tomorrow. I will issue a final snowfall map tomorrow night, if necessary.

WAY WEST, LOOK OUT!

RGEM right now is alone. Latest 00z GGEM barely brings precip into the area.

@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM right now is alone. Latest 00z GGEM barely brings precip into the area.

But Frank! That's a huge shift west on the GGEM. Don't you think the QPF is wayyy underdone considering a low about to bomb out?

@SoulSingMG wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM right now is alone. Latest 00z GGEM barely brings precip into the area.

But Frank! That's a huge shift west on the GGEM. Don't you think the QPF is wayyy underdone considering a low about to bomb out?

You mean the RGEM? GGEM has been consistent in taking this east.

I think this storm is like the last 2.it looks big but in the end nothing.

@Joe Snow wrote:

WAY WEST, LOOK OUT!

Even then it's the lightest QPF on the chart. This storm is nothing for this area. I am confident enough to say that now, maybe some light snow but I don't think much accumulation at all, if any.

@Frank_Wx wrote:

@SoulSingMG wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM right now is alone. Latest 00z GGEM barely brings precip into the area.

But Frank! That's a huge shift west on the GGEM. Don't you think the QPF is wayyy underdone considering a low about to bomb out?

You mean the RGEM? GGEM has been consistent in taking this east.

Yeah, I think he means RGEM, but even the ggem is a decent amount west compared to 12z but yet the precip shield doesn't change and it looks like it's a tad stronger

watch this become a nowcast event where models were completely wrong.. whens the last time snow showers were forecast and turned into a full on storm?

This is going to be a dangerous storm for Nova Scotia, that is a given

@Frank_Wx wrote:

@SoulSingMG wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM right now is alone. Latest 00z GGEM barely brings precip into the area.

But Frank! That's a huge shift west on the GGEM. Don't you think the QPF is wayyy underdone considering a low about to bomb out?

You mean the RGEM? GGEM has been consistent in taking this east.

Nope. I mean Miss Canada. She's about 80 miles west of her last run.

@Sanchize06 wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:

@SoulSingMG wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM right now is alone. Latest 00z GGEM barely brings precip into the area.

But Frank! That's a huge shift west on the GGEM. Don't you think the QPF is wayyy underdone considering a low about to bomb out?

You mean the RGEM? GGEM has been consistent in taking this east.

Yeah, I think he means RGEM, but even the ggem is a decent amount west compared to 12z but yet the precip shield doesn't change and it looks like it's a tad stronger

That's what I'm talking about. The precip is way underdone. Something weird is going on, I can feel it.

@SoulSingMG wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:

@SoulSingMG wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM right now is alone. Latest 00z GGEM barely brings precip into the area.

But Frank! That's a huge shift west on the GGEM. Don't you think the QPF is wayyy underdone considering a low about to bomb out?

You mean the RGEM? GGEM has been consistent in taking this east.

Nope. I mean Miss Canada. She's about 80 miles west of her last run.

Oh, lol. I don't have SV or Wxbell anymore so I don't even know. But from what I can gether, it's still very little precip for the area. The lack of Atlantic blocking seems to be killing us here

@SoulSingMG wrote:

@Sanchize06 wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:

@SoulSingMG wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM right now is alone. Latest 00z GGEM barely brings precip into the area.

But Frank! That's a huge shift west on the GGEM. Don't you think the QPF is wayyy underdone considering a low about to bomb out?

You mean the RGEM? GGEM has been consistent in taking this east.

Yeah, I think he means RGEM, but even the ggem is a decent amount west compared to 12z but yet the precip shield doesn't change and it looks like it's a tad stronger

That's what I'm talking about. The precip is way underdone. Something weird is going on, I can feel it.

Not really, storm doesn't get going and it's still well south than moves east of the BM.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

That track makes no sense. The models are confused and I truly believe tomorrow at 12z will be a telling tale of that. I could be dead wrong but that's what my gut is telling me.

frank a sub 980 low south of the BM shoulndnt there be more precip on its western flank. cmc doesn't seem right to me in terms of qpf on western side

@SoulSingMG wrote:That track makes no sense. The models are confused and I truly believe tomorrow at 12z will be a telling tale of that. I could be dead wrong but that's what my gut is telling me.

oooookkkkkkk..............   

I don't know, I think the models are having a hard time with this. Some of the pressure drops are not realistic as this storm bombs out.

The CMC is way west.

00Z GFS trended west.

Who know whats going to happen....... When storms get this intense they have a mind of their own.

I'm really curious to see the Euro soon too.

@algae888 wrote:frank a sub 980 low south of the BM shoulndnt there be more precip on its western flank. cmc doesn't seem right to me in terms of qpf on western side

I completely agree, it looks so bizarre

@algae888 wrote:frank a sub 980 low south of the BM shoulndnt there be more precip on its western flank. cmc doesn't seem right to me in terms of qpf on western side

No, more wound up storms typically pull the precip field in tighter, it's just passing way too far east of us, typically the track is from 25-100mi off the Jersey coast moving east northeast or northeast to the BM, a storm moving towards the BM from the south is not a good track for us, it's a good track for the cape but not us, this whole thing coming together way too late and trough axis is still too far east, just won't do anything for us

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:

@SoulSingMG wrote:That track makes no sense. The models are confused and I truly believe tomorrow at 12z will be a telling tale of that. I could be dead wrong but that's what my gut is telling me.

oooookkkkkkk..............   

Lol, c'mon Tom!!!! Throw me a bone! :-p

@algae888 wrote:frank a sub 980 low south of the BM shoulndnt there be more precip on its western flank. cmc doesn't seem right to me in terms of qpf on western side

The issue is everything is in "motion" and there is nothing in the Atlantic (positive heights, 50/50, or high pressure) to stop everything from advancing too quickly east. There's little time for organization. Only way this would come west is if H5 closes off, and not one single model is showing that right now. When the storm bombs, I only think eastern areas will see the worst impacts in terms of snow.

They say storms like to follow warmer water, seems to want to follow this until it phases fully way out to see and begins to move north

if you loop through hr 49-54 on cmc the steady precip doesn't extend more than 50 miles to its west. while it drops from a 990mb low to 975 in 5hrs. doesn't seem right to me