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March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:09 am

March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map 1970807_707293342655761_1318519097_n

If you recall from 2 weeks ago in the long range thread, I said I had a "feeling" about the time period this week in producing a large storm for the east coast. A large and powerful storm will indeed develop, but it appears the coastal storm will miss us well east and bring the heaviest snows just to eastern LI and Cape Cod. As the pattern became clearer to me, I have consistently said this storm is likely to be a glancing blow for the area bringing light snowfall amounts. The potential was definitely there for something larger - much larger - but that does not look to be the case.

Right now, I think bands from the coastal storm will get into our area, but they will be the most outer bands of the storm bringing relatively light snow to the area. Could isolated areas see more than 2+? (especially NYC / Jersey Shore / west LI?), YES, that is possible, but the general snow amounts expected region-wide should be between 1-2 inches of snow. Parts of the area could easily see 3 inches of snow if some of these bands hang on longer than expected.

Timing:

Start: 2:00-4:00pm Tuesday

End: 1:00-3:00am Wednesday

There is still another day of models runs Monday and trending of a more western track can still occur. However, latest trends with models weakening the western ridge due to a strong Pacific upper level low coming onshore suggests to me this storm is likely to continue staying on a more easterly track. We'll see if anything changes tomorrow. I will issue a final snowfall map tomorrow night, if necessary.




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Post by Joe Snow Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:21 am

March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map Aj44

WAY WEST, LOOK OUT!
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:22 am

RGEM right now is alone. Latest 00z GGEM barely brings precip into the area.

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:29 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM right now is alone. Latest 00z GGEM barely brings precip into the area.

But Frank! That's a huge shift west on the GGEM. Don't you think the QPF is wayyy underdone considering a low about to bomb out?
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:32 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM right now is alone. Latest 00z GGEM barely brings precip into the area.

But Frank! That's a huge shift west on the GGEM. Don't you think the QPF is wayyy underdone considering a low about to bomb out?

You mean the RGEM? GGEM has been consistent in taking this east.

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Post by Abba701 Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:35 am

I think this storm is like the last 2.it looks big but in the end nothing.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:36 am

@Joe Snow wrote:March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map Aj44

WAY WEST, LOOK OUT!

Even then it's the lightest QPF on the chart. This storm is nothing for this area. I am confident enough to say that now, maybe some light snow but I don't think much accumulation at all, if any.
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:36 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM right now is alone. Latest 00z GGEM barely brings precip into the area.

But Frank! That's a huge shift west on the GGEM. Don't you think the QPF is wayyy underdone considering a low about to bomb out?

You mean the RGEM? GGEM has been consistent in taking this east.
Yeah, I think he means RGEM, but even the ggem is a decent amount west compared to 12z but yet the precip shield doesn't change and it looks like it's a tad stronger

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Post by pdubz Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:37 am

watch this become a nowcast event where models were completely wrong.. whens the last time snow showers were forecast and turned into a full on storm?
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:40 am

This is going to be a dangerous storm for Nova Scotia, that is a given
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:41 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM right now is alone. Latest 00z GGEM barely brings precip into the area.

But Frank! That's a huge shift west on the GGEM. Don't you think the QPF is wayyy underdone considering a low about to bomb out?

You mean the RGEM? GGEM has been consistent in taking this east.

Nope. I mean Miss Canada. She's about 80 miles west of her last run.
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:42 am

@Sanchize06 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM right now is alone. Latest 00z GGEM barely brings precip into the area.

But Frank! That's a huge shift west on the GGEM. Don't you think the QPF is wayyy underdone considering a low about to bomb out?

You mean the RGEM? GGEM has been consistent in taking this east.
Yeah, I think he means RGEM, but even the ggem is a decent amount west compared to 12z but yet the precip shield doesn't change and it looks like it's a tad stronger

That's what I'm talking about. The precip is way underdone. Something weird is going on, I can feel it.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:43 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM right now is alone. Latest 00z GGEM barely brings precip into the area.

But Frank! That's a huge shift west on the GGEM. Don't you think the QPF is wayyy underdone considering a low about to bomb out?

You mean the RGEM? GGEM has been consistent in taking this east.

Nope. I mean Miss Canada. She's about 80 miles west of her last run.

Oh, lol. I don't have SV or Wxbell anymore so I don't even know. But from what I can gether, it's still very little precip for the area. The lack of Atlantic blocking seems to be killing us here

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:44 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM right now is alone. Latest 00z GGEM barely brings precip into the area.

But Frank! That's a huge shift west on the GGEM. Don't you think the QPF is wayyy underdone considering a low about to bomb out?

You mean the RGEM? GGEM has been consistent in taking this east.
Yeah, I think he means RGEM, but even the ggem is a decent amount west compared to 12z but yet the precip shield doesn't change and it looks like it's a tad stronger

That's what I'm talking about. The precip is way underdone. Something weird is going on, I can feel it.

Not really, storm doesn't get going and it's still well south than moves east of the BM.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:45 am

That track makes no sense. The models are confused and I truly believe tomorrow at 12z will be a telling tale of that. I could be dead wrong but that's what my gut is telling me.
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Post by algae888 Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:46 am

frank a sub 980 low south of the BM shoulndnt there be more precip on its western flank. cmc doesn't seem right to me in terms of qpf on western side
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:46 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:That track makes no sense. The models are confused and I truly believe tomorrow at 12z will be a telling tale of that. I could be dead wrong but that's what my gut is telling me.

oooookkkkkkk..............  Rolling Eyes 
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Post by Joe Snow Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:47 am

I don't know, I think the models are having a hard time with this. Some of the pressure drops are not realistic as this storm bombs out.

The CMC is way west.

00Z GFS trended west.

Who know whats going to happen....... When storms get this intense they have a mind of their own.
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:47 am

I'm really curious to see the Euro soon too.
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:48 am

@algae888 wrote:frank a sub 980 low south of the BM shoulndnt there be more precip on its western flank. cmc doesn't seem right to me in terms of qpf on western side

I completely agree, it looks so bizarre
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:48 am

@algae888 wrote:frank a sub 980 low south of the BM shoulndnt there be more precip on its western flank. cmc doesn't seem right to me in terms of qpf on western side

No, more wound up storms typically pull the precip field in tighter, it's just passing way too far east of us, typically the track is from 25-100mi off the Jersey coast moving east northeast or northeast to the BM, a storm moving towards the BM from the south is not a good track for us, it's a good track for the cape but not us, this whole thing coming together way too late and trough axis is still too far east, just won't do anything for us
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:49 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:That track makes no sense. The models are confused and I truly believe tomorrow at 12z will be a telling tale of that. I could be dead wrong but that's what my gut is telling me.

oooookkkkkkk..............  Rolling Eyes 

Lol, c'mon Tom!!!! Throw me a bone! :-p
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:50 am

@algae888 wrote:frank a sub 980 low south of the BM shoulndnt there be more precip on its western flank. cmc doesn't seem right to me in terms of qpf on western side

The issue is everything is in "motion" and there is nothing in the Atlantic (positive heights, 50/50, or high pressure) to stop everything from advancing too quickly east. There's little time for organization. Only way this would come west is if H5 closes off, and not one single model is showing that right now. When the storm bombs, I only think eastern areas will see the worst impacts in terms of snow.


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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:51 am

They say storms like to follow warmer water, seems to want to follow this until it phases fully way out to see and begins to move north

March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map Natlan12
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Post by algae888 Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:53 am

if you loop through hr 49-54 on cmc the steady precip doesn't extend more than 50 miles to its west. while it drops from a 990mb low to 975 in 5hrs. doesn't seem right to me
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