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March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:21 pm

The NAM on wxbell, that snow is So close to NYC, all it needs is like a jog of 25 miles bnorth.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:23 pm

Yep ace, its go be a long 24-36 hrs lol
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Post by dsix85 Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:23 pm

Did anyone take notice of the precip shield on the NAM expanding to an even larger area? I'm not talking just westward, but this thing seems to just absolutely explode! I think JB is going to be saying "told you so!" when we are nowcasting.

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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:25 pm

@dsix85 wrote:Did anyone take notice of the precip shield on the NAM expanding to an even larger area? I'm not talking just westward, but this thing seems to just absolutely explode! I think JB is going to be saying "told you so!" when we are nowcasting.
I dont see that really. It really consolidates once it rapidly intensifies as most do. Thats why its still to far east to give good snows to the whole area.

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Post by algae888 Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:27 pm

far e LI boston cape cod east, conn get crushed!!
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Post by dsix85 Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:28 pm

Maybe I can't wrap my head around how strong this storm will be but I don't see as much consolidation Ace. I still see some good snow for the coast, which was an upgrade from where we were 24 hours ago. Maybe I'm a bias snow weenie since I live in Suffolk

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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:30 pm

@dsix85 wrote:Maybe I can't wrap my head around how strong this storm will be but I don't see as much consolidation Ace. I still see some good snow for the coast, which was an upgrade from where we were 24 hours ago. Maybe I'm a bias snow weenie since I live in Suffolk
Im just telling you thats what a rapidly intensifying storm does. It has a strong but compact precip shield. We get snow this run because of the precip we get initially from a further west low before it moves ENE and intensifies. To get a big snow with this storm, it needs to be west of BM.

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Post by emokid51783 Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:32 pm

Ace, agreed, but at this point we need to see how dominant the western-most low is. For the first time in 2 days, there is actually snow in play for the area.

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Post by dsix85 Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:32 pm

Totally understand, appreciate the breakdown kind sir!

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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:32 pm

Still was probably a 100 miles plus shift on the NAM. Laughably bad run to run changes.

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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:33 pm

@emokid51783 wrote:Ace, agreed, but at this point we need to see how dominant the western-most low is. For the first time in 2 days, there is actually snow in play for the area.
Part of the area again. And one run doesn't change things. The GFS can stay east. But well see. Its cautious optimism on my part, but you have to be realistic.

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Post by dsix85 Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:35 pm

Ace, shot in the dark here but based on this last run (more like a crapshoot) where is the precip shield being cut off? Is NYC the most western fringe to see a flake?

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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:36 pm

@dsix85 wrote:Ace, shot in the dark here but based on this last run (more like a crapshoot) where is the precip shield being cut off? Is NYC the most western fringe to see a flake?
QPF map is posted a page back. Verbatim, accumulating snow is cut off CNJ, and Central LI on a NE/SE slant.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:37 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@emokid51783 wrote:Ace, agreed, but at this point we need to see how dominant the western-most low is. For the first time in 2 days, there is actually snow in play for the area.
Part of the area again. And one run doesn't change things. The GFS can stay east. But well see. Its cautious optimism on my part, but you have to be realistic.

Agreed. It was a good trend but IMO too little too late for us, may enhance prospects for the Cape.
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Post by dsix85 Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:37 pm

Thanks my man, computer problems lost the maps had to log back in.

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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:41 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@emokid51783 wrote:Ace, agreed, but at this point we need to see how dominant the western-most low is. For the first time in 2 days, there is actually snow in play for the area.
Part of the area again. And one run doesn't change things. The GFS can stay east. But well see. Its cautious optimism on my part, but you have to be realistic.

Agreed. It was a good trend but IMO too little too late for us, may enhance prospects for the Cape.
I get 5 inches from the NAM verbatim. I can see that if it takes a track similar to that. Its a good track for the coastal areas.
And you dont usually see 100+ miles changes on miles <36 hours out so im with you.

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Post by dsix85 Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:42 pm

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h
A question of who pulls who in. Models all against my idea that nw development pulls in system to se. But snows in va on model increasing

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:52 pm

Well that stinks GFS has snow to south but cuts out NYC pretty much.

March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 5 Gfs_qp10

I hope its still having issues, we will see what CMC and Euro say tonight. NAM so far had closest precip over negligible amounts.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:53 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@emokid51783 wrote:Ace, agreed, but at this point we need to see how dominant the western-most low is. For the first time in 2 days, there is actually snow in play for the area.
Part of the area again. And one run doesn't change things. The GFS can stay east. But well see. Its cautious optimism on my part, but you have to be realistic.

Agreed. It was a good trend but IMO too little too late for us, may enhance prospects for the Cape.
I get 5 inches from the NAM verbatim. I can see that if it takes a track similar to that. Its a good track for the coastal areas.
And you dont usually see 100+ miles changes on miles <36 hours out so im with you.
Hey Ace so the latest Nam run is more of a hit for us. Isnt this when Nam is at its best? Also its the Nam against all others ?
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:53 pm

NWS took the whole area down to less than a inch (except far eastern which is still only 2-4), I think we are done here, I will have to admit defeat. Unless crazy changes tonight, but doubt it.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:59 pm

So does it look like no shot in the dark for NYC and suburbs? Or is there still a chance, I know its going to be a nowcast but NWS just downgraded whole area around tristate so that concerns me.
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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 24, 2014 6:14 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@emokid51783 wrote:Ace, agreed, but at this point we need to see how dominant the western-most low is. For the first time in 2 days, there is actually snow in play for the area.
Part of the area again. And one run doesn't change things. The GFS can stay east. But well see. Its cautious optimism on my part, but you have to be realistic.

Agreed. It was a good trend but IMO too little too late for us, may enhance prospects for the Cape.
I get 5 inches from the NAM verbatim. I can see that if it takes a track similar to that. Its a good track for the coastal areas.
And you dont usually see 100+ miles changes on miles <36 hours out so im with you.
Hey Ace so the latest Nam run is more of a hit for us. Isnt this when Nam is at its best? Also its the Nam against all others ?
Its never at its best and yes its against other guidance.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 24, 2014 6:27 pm

BR said our only real shot at big snows is if the low closes off off the NJ coast or somewhere in between there and where it is progged on the Euro now, does anyone see this as a possibility rather than further east?
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Post by oldtimer Mon Mar 24, 2014 6:28 pm

Ryan Im about 22m west of the twin forks at port jeff Do I have a shot of 3+ based on a jog west this afternoon

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Post by aiannone Mon Mar 24, 2014 6:31 pm

Well, it's official. I'm going to Chatham to chase this storm. Wish me luck!
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