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March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by pdubz Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:54 am

it sucks to think what this would have become if it were on the benchmark  Sad 😢 
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:54 am

@pdubz wrote:it sucks to think what this would have become if it were on the benchmark  Sad 😢 

Would actually need to be inside the BM due to it's track.
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Post by pdubz Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:55 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@pdubz wrote:it sucks to think what this would have become if it were on the benchmark  Sad 😢 

Would actually need to be inside the BM due to it's track.

yeah i mean if it also came off the Delmarva or whatever the perfect area is for a low to come out of
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:57 am

@pdubz wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@pdubz wrote:it sucks to think what this would have become if it were on the benchmark  Sad 😢 

Would actually need to be inside the BM due to it's track.

yeah i mean if it also came off the Delmarva or whatever the perfect area is for a low to come out of

Yea, this would be a beast sitting 30 miles off the coast of NJ, oh well
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Post by Joe Snow Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:59 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@algae888 wrote:frank a sub 980 low south of the BM shoulndnt there be more precip on its western flank. cmc doesn't seem right to me in terms of qpf on western side

The issue is everything is in "motion" and there is nothing in the Atlantic (positive heights, 50/50, or high pressure) to stop everything from advancing too quickly east. There's little time for organization. Only way this would come west is if H5 closes off, and not one single model is showing that right now. When the storm bombs, I only think eastern areas will see the worst impacts in terms of snow.


A nice 50/50 blocking low is what we need, man if one were there it would just pour snow on us with this storm................... but we have nothing, nothing at all.............
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:00 am

@Joe Snow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@algae888 wrote:frank a sub 980 low south of the BM shoulndnt there be more precip on its western flank. cmc doesn't seem right to me in terms of qpf on western side

The issue is everything is in "motion" and there is nothing in the Atlantic (positive heights, 50/50, or high pressure) to stop everything from advancing too quickly east. There's little time for organization. Only way this would come west is if H5 closes off, and not one single model is showing that right now. When the storm bombs, I only think eastern areas will see the worst impacts in terms of snow.


A nice 50/50 blocking low is what we need, man if one were there it would just pour snow on us with this storm................... but we have nothing, nothing at all.............

There is a HP in good position but it is way too weak and slides to the east.
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Post by algae888 Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:01 am

frank and tom I understand your point. I guess the heavy snow bands that set up are going to very narrow because the western flank is very tight and doesn't extend that far out. we know eastern side is all rain so to get a good snow from this storm you have to be more than lucky.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 24, 2014 2:09 am

All Canadian ensemble members showing this way out to sea and a miss for us, yet a very bad storm for Nova Scotia, Canada.

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=072&Day=&RunTime=00&Type=pnm
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Post by pdubz Mon Mar 24, 2014 2:29 am

EURO comes west but who knows its probably too late for any major shift west

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=233465
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:20 am

@pdubz wrote:EURO comes west but who knows its probably too late for any major shift west

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=233465

not nearly a big enough shift to benefit us, does help out the Cape a bit
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Post by docstox12 Mon Mar 24, 2014 6:09 am

NWS has me for maybe 1 to 2 inches.Don't think I'll even see that. Frank and Tom, you had this pegged as a scraper or a miss days ago.Kudo's to Bill Evans as well.He mentioned a miss days ago as well.The big factor missing is the blocking without which MECS do not come together properly.It takes a lot of variables to come together right to produce one and that's why they are not too common in this area.The last 6 weeks just have not been favorable here for snow.Tired of this cold and dry.After this, let it torch.
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Post by algae888 Mon Mar 24, 2014 6:15 am

interesting from upton....

TWO OF THE FOUR MOVING PARTS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEMS ARE
FULLY IN WELL SAMPLED PORTIONS OF OUR UPPER AIR NETWORK...THE
ENERGY OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/FAR SE ALASKA AND THE ENERGY
OVER THE NW/YUKON TERRITORIES OF CANADA. THESE ARE THE TWO MOST
IMPORTANT PIECES OF ENERGY...AS THEY ARE THE TWO THAT PHASE...AND
ALLOW FOR THE RAPID DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW. NOT SAMPLED FULLY
ARE A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CA COAST WHICH IS ACTING TO HELP SLOW THE
ENERGY DIVING SE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA ENOUGH FOR THE ENERGY
DIVING DOWN FROM W CENTRAL CANADA TO CATCH UP TO IT
. THE FOURTH
PIECE OF ENERGY...IS A WEAK BIT OF ENERGY OVER WESTERN
MEXICO...WHICH FORMS A WEAK LOW OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH
THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW FORMED BY THE PASSED ENERGY AS IT
APPROACHES THE SE/MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THERE REMAIN TWO CAMPS IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST BY TUESDAY THE MORNING. THE FIRST IS THE
ECMWF/ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH BRINGS THE LOW CLOSEST TO THE BENCH
MARK...AND SPELLS A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FOR EASTERN
ZONES. THE SECOND CAMP IS EVERYTHING ELSE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
THE TRI-STATE WILL RECEIVE AT MOST A GLANCING BLOW

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A SOLUTION LIKE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND STRONGER WINDS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...TO AT LEAST
ADVISORY LEVEL. IF AN ECMWF LIKE SOLUTION HAPPENED...THE NYC METRO
COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW...BUT AREAS WELL NW OF NYC STILL
COULD STAY UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...A SHIFT IN
TRACK TO THE N/W OF THE ECMWF...TO AT OR NEAR THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK...COULD BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST THE SE
1/3 OF THE CWA...AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER. THE
PROBABILITY OF THE LATTER IS LOW...LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

LASTLY...IF A SOLUTION MORE LIKE THE GFS/CMC OCCURS...THEN
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...IF AT ALL...WITH AREAS FROM NYC ON N/W RECEIVING LITTLE
IF ANY SNOW. THE ODDS OF THIS ARE AROUND 30 PERCENT.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 24, 2014 7:52 am

Well I took the day away from the board yesterday to spend some quality time with the wife and kids.  I did still follow the models; however,  and will admit am feeling a bit defeated.  I know the exact reason why this system is staying east on the models, and have been seeing the reason for it for since at least Friday.

It boils down to a timing issue.  It was my thought that the timing would work out, but that is looking less and less likely.  Bottom line is the timing issue is created by the lack of blocking to our east.  Man oh man where have we heard that before.   The timing issue is so close though.  Literally if the southern energy is slowed down by no more than 6-8hrs, or if the northern energy comes in 6-8hrs earlier it brings this thing sucker right to or pretty darn close to the BM.  

I will use the CMC for my example, but there is pretty good consensus of this overall theme.  Check out 500mb hr 36 of last nights 00z.  
You can see how the southern energy is out ahead of the Northern energy by about 6hrs.  Also take notice the flow out ahead of it...west to east.   On the surface the LP is just starting to show up in association with the southern energy.  But the N energy is hot on its heals and is really potent.  
March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 <a href=March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Cmc_fi10" />
March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 <a href=March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Cmc_fi11" />

Just 6 hrs later as the N energy starts to consolidate and dig into the base of the trough a surface LP develops just off the Sc/Nc coast, but because there remains this S energy out ahead of the base of the trough, and the original LP that developed in association with the S energy in hr 36 is also still there further south an east.   On the surface the LP remains disorganized and we get the two center appearance.  As you can see there is still plenty of convection firing up around the LP center that is S and E preventing the one just off the coast from organizing.  
March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 <a href=March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Cmc_fi12" />
March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 <a href=March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Cmc_fi13" />

This is critical, because if the N and S energy were closer at this time frame, then a more organized LP would be developing just off the Sc/NC coast and the trough would tilt neg sooner brining a single organized LP center right up the coast.  Instead it takes another 12 hrs for the northern energy to finally catch up to the S energy and we get the consolidated very potent, rapidly intensifying LP that then tunrs N.  But by that time we are already too far east and the axis of heavy snow misses us.

Hr 54:
March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 <a href=March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Cmc_fi14" />
March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 <a href=March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Cmc_fi15" />

So once again the pattern is winning out it appears.  Even with having the most potent pieces of energy we have seen all winter it goes to show when the pattern is less than ideal timing must be impeccable in order for the pieces to come together just right.  Of all the systems this month this one IMHO is the closest to just missing the perfect timing.  At this time yesterday I believed that the potentcy of the energy consolidated in the base of the trough would ultimately win out and organize that low sooner, but it doesnt apear that is going to be the case.  I do still believe that because of the potency of the players and because there is still a small amount of time before the pieces make it to the east coast a shift back to the west is "POSSIBLE".  If it does it prob would not be by much (25-30Miles).  The Cape and Eastern half of LI would be the most affected by that West shift.  However, as has been the theme all month it is more likely that with the same factors listed above as well as the lack of blocking that a track that ticks further East is also possible.
Unless something major happens on today and tonights runs I will prob sit back and watch it unfold, and only post occasionally.  Tom well done sir.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:16 am

I would just like to point out those who were bashing JB last night should be ashamed.  Yes the man looks for cold and snowy weather, but has an uncanny ability of finding it because he is always looking for it.  Last night some mentioned on here that he was still calling for a BM track and much higher snow totals into NYC metro and Philly, and he was basically called an idiot for doing so.  Well I finaly read his write up on why and he clearly has plenty of science and fact to back up his theory.  I particulary want you all to look for the words Fuhjiwhara effect because we will come back to that.  In addition he clearly realizes throughout his write up that most of the guidance disagrees with him and admits he could be wrong.  Here is his entire write up.  I inserted some of the images but not all because its taking too much time.  

Joe Bastardi:
March 23 03:14 PM

As of this writing, and though there looks to be a bit of an eastward drift of the models... I have no changes.

The call is for the center of the storm to be near 40 north and 70 west, sometime between 06z and 18z Wednesday, Here is the method behind the madness

The 12z March 22 ECMWF forecast for 06z Wednesday had this:
March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 <a href=March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Euro_j10" />

This had a 985 low near 36 north and 69 west, but the appendage northwest to where I believe the true center will be. Now lets look at the current forecast12z 3/23/14) for the same time ( ECWMF) IT PULLS A FUJIWARA watch the northwest system move east, the eastern system swing up.. I dont know that I have seen something like this, so I am having a lot of problems thinking this can happe

66 hours
March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 <a href=March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Euro_j11" />

72hrs
March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 <a href=March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Euro_j12" />
combined at 78 hours.. with Sandy like intensity 6 mb) about 150 ene of where I think the center will be)
March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 <a href=March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Euro_j13" />

At 66 hrs,Both centers are stronger, but closer together. The southeastern system has trended a bit west, The northern center a bit east. But this is the problem, One of the two should be the stronger of the two systems. If its the northwest side, then the blizzard is raging well back into the I-95 corridor. If its the southeast, its obviously further east. It likely to be the system on the northwest side and here is why. If we look at the 60 hour 500 mb, valid 00z March 26 the trough is still well back, and the "tucking" of the upper height lines argues for the western system. As I have pointed out, this is over the warm bend in the SST for one and for 2) likely where the TRUE arctic front is. So the strongest height falls are hitting the area where the water is warmest and the true arctic front is. The model is trying to develop the convective feedback system on the Polar front to the southeast. Of course if it is right, I am wrong about what I see to be a 1-2 foot storm southeast of the Boston to Bridgeport line with 6 -12 PHL to Bridgeport in the crucial corridor. But the 500 mb looks like this:
March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 <a href=March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Euro_j14" />
You can see it starting some kind of warm core feed back where it bends the red 540Hgt line. However the place where the focus of the vort packing is located is right off the va capes

Here is the 60 hour





66 hour



Its between this time and 72 hours, 6 hours, that the entire system spins up to the east





You basically have the model spinning up a warm core system from the southeastern low, which is suspect.. The 500 changes dramatically from the 60 hour to 72 so the big picture looks like this



That "pulls" the storm east







Even so the snowfall at 10-1 ratios is impressive for late march and not that far away from my idea, and if all this works out, the most likely solution





Now consider this: The way all this happens is the initial snowband plainly in the I-95 corridor and simply amplifies stronger and stronger as the northwest system develops, and the system southeast of it is an appendage THAT GETS PULLED INTO IT? The models all are saying the northwest system gets pulled into the southeast system, which develops way out there. And I see that.. see how I am dead wrong. But there is a) no confluence in front of this by 60 hours.. so why is the warming off shore not going to proceed around the northwest center. If the low is weaker.. by several mb then the northwest storm is the storm! So the net result for now is to stay where I am .. I like 3 in DC 4 WI 6 PHL 9 NYC ( give me plus/minus 25% on this, okay) but Bridgeport to Boston.. look out



For now thats my story and I am sticking to it. though plainly modeling has shifted east a bit on me. My theory is there is so much cold air now the model actually sees coming into the area where the storm develops in 2 days, that its jumping on that. but once the high is offshore and the energy gets into this, then its a different story. But we shall see.



Here we are, late March and look at this. And given the pattern I am seeing through April 15, while warming is coming, so is blocking and with plenty of cold holding in central Canada this may not be the last threat. Not like i hasnt happened before.. 1982,1983, 1972. 1997 etc as examples

Whether this comes or not.. the fact that after this winter, the cold this week and this threat continues to show how wild this winter was.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:42 am

NOW here is more:  Here is the Fujiwhara effect in a nutshell: http://www.hko.gov.hk/education/edu01met/wxphe/ele_fujiwhara_e.htm

In addition here is a fantastic write up as of 6:28pm yesterday.  
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/23/nor_easter_bomb_fujiwhara_effect_why_the_forecast_for_tuesday_s_storm_is.html

And finally with all our newly found knowledge above last nights Euro hr54-60
Hr54:
March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 <a href=March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Euro_s17" />
Hr60:
March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 <a href=March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Euro_s18" />

Take particular notice that the Euro drops the minimum central pressure from 981mb to 954mb in only 6hrs!!!!!  That is a mind boggling drop of 27mb in 6hrs!!!  The euro has been consistently showing these drastic and rapid drops in pressure for days.  The GFS seems to be the least impressive and the CMC is in between with about a 15mb drop in that same 6hrs.  Also note the dramatic shift E-NE in the LP center during this same 6hr time frame.  There seems to be a lot going on in a very short period of time.  

Although I did not recognize the Fujiwhara effect as a potential player here it was and still is my contention that the NW LP center "should" be the dominant one given the setup at H5.  I guess my point is that the window is almost closed, but for areas from say NYC and points east esp Suffolk County LI and SE CT and of course Cape cod area need to still need to watch very closely for any unexpected shifts to the current track consensus.  Any time you have this much energy undergoing such drastic changes in such a short time frame, plus the potentially rare possibility of the Fujiwhara effect between the two LP centers (which is normally only seen with Tropical cyclones) you have to worry about minor details that have large consequenses being missed due to the lack of resolution by some of the models.  This MAY boil down to the higher resolution short range models (12-24hrs and under), and now casting to see how it all unfolds.  Or the track is set in stone and we may not.  

I may be grasping at straws here but I feel that due to the strength of this system we should not let our guards down until the system is well up into the Canadian maritime.  A track shift of 35-50miles could have huge implications for the above outlined areas in terms of snow totals, wind impacts, and tidal flooding.  And with that I am officially going to sit back and observe the next 24-36hrs unfold.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by algae888 Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:02 am

sroc great write ups as always and im trying to understand this stuff. take todays 12z nam at hr 36 it looks like the low pressure is splitting in two one right along the coast and the other well east. as we move through the next 3-4 frames it looks like the low to the east pulls the western low towards it. so this fujiwhara  effect should cause the opposite and pull the eastern low center towards the western low. am I correct? if I am the western low seemed stronger and wetter than yesterdays runs so is the nam trying to pick up on this?
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Post by algae888 Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:13 am

the western precip field is much wetter than yesterdays runs which is more like a storm of this size. plus at hr 42 the stronger s/w energy is right along the coast and the trough is neg and the lines are almost due s to n. with a lot of precip right offshore. so would figure this precip should move right over us but it doesn't it moves more easterly towards the weaker s/w.
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Post by algae888 Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:18 am

sroc maybe we are grasping at straws but one more thing. from hr42 to 45 the stronger s/w in the trough looks to transfer to the offshore weaker s/w that's why the precip gets pulled east. so again this fujiwhara effect is supposed to be the opposite? am I close to being correct?lol
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:19 am

Sroc:

Personally I've always liked Bastardi, he's a meteorologist first and a businessman second, but sometimes that order gets reversed.

He wants to be right but he also wants to make a buck. He likes to go against the grain on setups like this because he will get a lot more publicity out of this if he's correct than if he goes along with everyone else. As you say he's brilliant, and I agree with that, and when he does make calls like this he always has good reasoning and a lot of science and experience behind him to back him up. A lot more knowledge and experience than anyone else on this board and I say that with no disrespect to anyone else on this board.

In summary I don't think he's going to be right and I've never believed in this storm for our area from day one, but I certainly see his reasoning and your reasoning why we can't discount it yet.

He's making a 9 inch call for NYC, even give him his 25% discount and that's almost 7 inches. No one is calling for anything close to that right now. I would love for him to get the last laugh.

Regards BP
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March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map

Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:36 am

@algae888 wrote:sroc great write ups as always and im trying to understand this stuff. take todays 12z nam at hr 36 it looks like the low pressure is splitting in two one right along the coast and the other well east. as we move through the next 3-4 frames it looks like the low to the east pulls the western low towards it. so this fujiwhara  effect should cause the opposite and pull the eastern low center towards the western low. am I correct? if I am the western low seemed stronger and wetter than yesterdays runs so is the nam trying to pick up on this?
In theory it depends on where the geometric center between the two centers sets up.  I am not smart enough to know where that is in this setup. And yes according to the info in the link above in theory the stronger of the two centers should have more influence.  So in theory the low center could end up being west of what is modeled.  Could the NAM also be trying to pick up on this yes. But to be honest I have no clue. I am not experienced enough to know how this is all gonna shake out. If going on model consensus alone here the safe bet is still the glancing blow, but due to the shear intensity of this system and these currently discussed points it warrants watching.  Gun to my head I am still betting glancing blow but.....

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March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:44 am

Good wrietup Scott. I do not have much time again today so you basically caught me up. On the latest GFS, you can see it tries to pop a secondary low closer to the coast and it tries to figure out which low to focus on.

March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 8LleGTr

There could be some good banding if that low tracks close to the coast, but I still think the best banding remains just offshore. This is going to be a close call.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:46 am

I was the one who said he was calling for a bm move. And I respect him despite what others might think. He is no idiot which is apparent in his knowledge and explanation. I hope he is right and we get a big storm. It's go b a now cast imo.
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Post by algae888 Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:46 am

sroc thanks for responding and it is difficult to grasp the concept. rgem also does what nam does has a low right off the coast and then transfers energy east. it is further west (coastal lp) than yesterday. ill give it to tonite to see what models show
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Post by algae888 Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:56 am

12z gfs while its a miss for us it did increase qpf over Virginia Maryland and Delaware. however as nam and rgem it pulls the precip east and bypasses us. according to the models dc balt would see 3-5" then byb pass us and hit boston cape cod. weird! are the snow gods mad at us.lol
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:00 pm

@algae888 wrote:12z gfs while its a miss for us it did increase qpf over Virginia Maryland and Delaware. however as nam and rgem it pulls the precip east and bypasses us. according to the models dc balt would see 3-5" then byb pass us and hit boston cape cod. weird! are the snow gods mad at us.lol

That would be hard to take, AGAIN!!

I'd rather it miss everyone.
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