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March 25th Glancing Blow Storm, 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by aiannone Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:54 pm

Hey guys I was thinking about taking off school Wednesday to go out to the cape and chase this storm. Do you guys think it will be worth it out there?
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:07 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Hey guys I was thinking about taking off school Wednesday to go out to the cape and chase this storm. Do you guys think it will be worth it out there?

ur gonna go all the way up there for snow u cant even enjoy? eh i wouldnt do it especially the possibility of being stuck in dangerous winds and downed power lines or anything
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Post by aiannone Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:08 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Mets2695 wrote:Hey guys I was thinking about taking off school Wednesday to go out to the cape and chase this storm. Do you guys think it will be worth it out there?

ur gonna go all the way up there for snow u cant even enjoy? eh i wouldnt do it especially the possibility of being stuck in dangerous winds and downed power lines or anything

Ehh that's true. I also know that Jim Cantore is going to be there. I also wanted to meet him there too.
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:19 pm

The models have no semblance on how this is going to play out. METS are going nuts, tweeting that if the low closer to the coast becomes primary, we are all in for it. Lol
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Post by oldtimer Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:35 pm

Hey Soul S What Mets?? What ru seeing-reading?

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:51 pm

Things like this.

E. Holthaus: "@EricHolthaus: At 36hrs, GFS ensemble mean has proto-nor'easter sitting just off NC outer banks. At 48hrs, there's a secondary low near the 40/70 benchmark"

BASTARDI is also going on and on about his 40/70 track being right.

The NWS risk map has NYC in the heavy snow bubble, yet not boston. This whole thing is a sh*tshow.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:52 pm

Soul, I agree with them, something is amiss with the models, IMO this is going to be such a explosive storm I mean jeeze 980-950's thats crazy! I think the models are just too overburdened with how to handle the situation and it will be a nowcast and we could be in for a surprise as I said before. So especially from NYC and I think slighly north like Bronx and southern Yonkers, eastward need toi watch as a BM move would crush us, and the winds would be crazy. We will see, wishcasting maybe but as I said before nothing to lose except yet another storm. Will still be amazing to see and sattelite images to save forever!
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:54 pm

Where is the NWS risk map?
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:58 pm

NWS WPC posted it on twitter. And I of course cannot figure out how to post it on here from my phone. So if you have twitter, go follow @NWSWPC and you'll see it.
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:59 pm

For what it is (or isn't lol) worth, the CMC came in very close to a BM track, pretty well west of her last run.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 24, 2014 2:02 pm

CMC still doesnt bring much snow even to areas east of NYC. But a good 4-6 is just south of LI, so another jog NW and we are in it.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 24, 2014 2:06 pm

NWS responded to that map on twitter explaining that blob is where they think "heavy snow" 4 inches, will have a 10% chance or higher of falling. 4 inches is heavy snow? Um.....
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 24, 2014 2:14 pm

EURO has been remarkably consistent. Shows similar track at 12z, a bit less QPF. If things pan out like the Euro says, she really is the Queen Weather Bee.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 24, 2014 2:15 pm

Ican't post images from work but the Euro came east with the snow over NYC and LI but went west with it down in Maryland what?! Again this is all a big mess and is going to be a nowcast.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 24, 2014 2:20 pm

Euro does show between hrs 54-66 winds gusting from 40-55mph, so a bit windy on Wed can ya say?  Any trend west and we get warning level winds.  Am hoping precip shield shifts at least a little west too so we can see something here in NYC andmy area bordering Bronx. Shows less than 1 inch in NYC and about 3-5 in LI.
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:07 pm

Well, i guess we'll just have to see who's right, JB or the models ( for the most part, CMC kind of supported his idea today at 12z). JB obviously feels of the 2 lows the one NW will be the dominant one and pull in the SE low forcing it closer to the coast and enhance the snow toward the coast, while the models show the opposite ( SE low pulling in the NW low). Potentially a huge difference for Eastern Long Island and SNE. Even for us here near NYC. While i'm not a fan of his, i can see where he's coming from and actually respect the fact that he stands by it. Going to have to be a nowcast in order to see what low is the dominant one, but i still like the low being further east.

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:12 pm

BASTARDI:

"@BigJoeBastardi: My idea is system that you will see near Hatteras around noon tomorrow will be stronger as it moves northeast, pull in other.Not vice versa"

He's not giving up. Imagine if he's right?
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:15 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:Well, i guess we'll just have to see who's right, JB or the models ( for the most part, CMC kind of supported his idea today at 12z). JB obviously feels of the 2 lows the one NW will be the dominant one and pull in the SE low forcing it closer to the coast and enhance the snow toward the coast, while the models show the opposite ( SE low pulling in the NW low). Potentially a huge difference for Eastern Long Island and SNE. Even for us here near NYC. While i'm not a fan of his, i can see where he's coming from and actually respect the fact that he stands by it. Going to have to be a nowcast in order to see what low is the dominant one, but i still like the low being further east.

I agree. I've got tremendous respect for someone who stands by their thoughts, even when the majority disagrees. Because after all, his thoughts ARE a possibility, big or small.
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:17 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:BASTARDI:

"@BigJoeBastardi: My idea is system that you will see near Hatteras around noon tomorrow will be  stronger as it moves northeast, pull in other.Not vice versa"

He's not giving up. Imagine if he's right?

Yeah, the models show his idea to an extent as they have the low in Hatteras whereas they didn't the other day which is the reason for the higher qpf amounts for the Delmarva but then the eastern low than captures it and pulls it east and the heavier snow amounts don't make it up this far. If he's right and the western low pulls in the eastern one, it would be a bigger event here. Honestly, just don't believe that happens. It's bad enough we miss out to the cape, but now models are showing we miss out to our north and south lol

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Post by mako460 Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:25 pm

I'm not the biggest fan of Bastardi but, once in a while he has to get it right, so maybe this is his time. These bigger storms tend to do what they want to do. Maybe the low off of Hatteras can reel this one back. Definitely not counting on it but it would be nice.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:30 pm

BRING IT ON SNOWICANE! LOL, IF BASTARDI IS RIGHT HE HAS MY PERMANENT SUBSCRIPTION TO WXBELL!
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Post by dsix85 Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:35 pm

Still a lot to consider here folks, until this baby bombs out, it's going to be a nowcast situation. Almost comparable to a hurricane making landfall, no one can say with great certainty other than a 25-50 mile range of where a hurricane goes inland. Same goes with this storm, a wiggle to a direction west or east has major ramifications on the NE corridor.

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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:45 pm

Hmmm....read all the posts today and i see what people are saying and scotts posts earlier today make alot of sense. Its a wait and see situation for me. Now cast scenario tomorrow.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:45 pm

yep dsix i concur, this is exactly like a hurricanec (but not) and could make a turn to west or north or east at last minute, they should be talking about it like that (in terms of dangerousness) but they arent really. it could have some same damaging effects as a low hurricane if it gets close enough. am expecting a windy night tuesday and wed no matter what its a explansive wind field, huge like sandy.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:46 pm

ace i have a bit more hope, now I am more excited just to see what the heck she does even if she doesnt hit us, as i said still will be amazing sattelite images to have and the nowcast will be intense. glad its at night so i can track and not be at work.
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