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March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm

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Post by Quietace Wed Mar 26, 2014 7:37 am

Looking at the models beyond the storm that effected us yesterday, it seems they are coming together, while with different evolution of the system, for possible large rain storm throughout the area.
All models show the system closing off at H5 as it forms and slides, which means a slower mover.
The GEM and GFS form this in the middle of the country and slide it slowly off the coast at our latitude (GEM) or south of us (GFS)
March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm Cmc_pr15
March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm Gfs_pr23
While the Euro forms the system similar to the GFS and GEM, but transfers it off our coast, near Virginia, before it stalls out and throws back precipitation.
March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm Ecmwf_52
This could be our first large rain event of the season.
Also like to mention the GFS does suggest some back end snow for NW burbs at 6z. Something to watch their.
I included the 28th in here because their will be a weak front passing that could bring some precipitation also.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 26, 2014 8:54 am

Was just gunna make a thread for this. Thanks Ryan.

This will be a two storm scenario. The first storm comes through on Friday into early Saturday morning in the form of a cold front. I don't think we'll see too much out of that, maybe .25-.75 inches of rain.

The second storm has the potential to drop much more

March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15

The above is the 00z Canadian model. A potent low pressure system over NJ bringing heavy rain and moderate winds. We could see over 2 inches of rain from this storm, but I think 1-2 inches of rain is more likely.

I don't think we'll see backend snow, but some models suggest we will. The coastal storm is actually a Miller B with a primary cutting into PA and transferring energy to the coast. If the secondary low is off our coast and cold air gets drawn in, rain could change to snow.

I would say 2-3 inches of total rain is likely this weekend with potential of 1-2 inches of snow.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Mar 26, 2014 9:45 am

Yea Ive seen this too on several model runs ive looked at lately. Could be easily over an inch of rain and seems to be a multi part system.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Mar 26, 2014 9:51 am

BTW 6z GFS at 110-114 has .25-.5" of Precip with the 850s below freezing in parts of the area especially NW where there is more precip however surface is in mid 30s and only below freezing in the N HV. Although most likely an all rain event and a lot of time left for trends I wouldnt rule out non accumulating snow towards the latter part of the event especially well north of I95
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Post by amugs Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:00 pm

Who wants more eye candy fantasy snow  - well the Canadian says hellooooo- IMO I don't see this accumulation but if we can get a coating to an inch good - if we get 6"+ for some higher elevations as depicted then I save my job/title (KSW)!!! king 

March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm Post-910-0-53565000-1395852719


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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:07 pm

@amugs wrote:Who wants more eye candy fantasy snow  - well the Canadian says hellooooo- IMO I don't see this accumulation but if we can get a coating to an inch good - if we get 6"+ for some higher elevations as depicted then I save my job/title (KSW)!!! king 

March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm Post-910-0-53565000-1395852719


Haha that's an April Fool's if I ever saw one!

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:08 pm

GGEM 12z shows a big boy rainstorm, and a formidable backend snow event.
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:11 pm

Mother Nature continues to toy with us like cats clawing at a string lol. Leave us beeeeeee!!  Exclamation 
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:58 pm

March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16

GFS trying to pop the secondary offshore and bring snow to the area Sunday

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Post by amugs Wed Mar 26, 2014 2:11 pm

Precip GFS ENS

March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm Gfs-ens_apcpn_us_19

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Post by amugs Wed Mar 26, 2014 2:15 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@amugs wrote:Who wants more eye candy fantasy snow  - well the Canadian says hellooooo- IMO I don't see this accumulation but if we can get a coating to an inch good - if we get 6"+ for some higher elevations as depicted then I save my job/title (KSW)!!! king 

March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm Post-910-0-53565000-1395852719


Haha that's an April Fool's if I ever saw one!

I hear you Zoo but for soem chance this hits then we are fool's - this winter like I said before will hang tough until the end of this month - even though we frankly have seen nothing and is sooooo disappointing you never know - cruel if SNJ and DC get's this snow - I would be soooo frickin mad and do not know what I'd do  Arrow - I may have to take a break from this for quite awhile if that happens and take up ping pong or witling - I don't know.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 26, 2014 2:29 pm

EURO model crashed at 30 hours. Oh well.

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Post by amugs Wed Mar 26, 2014 2:32 pm

Frank, it wants no part of this weather pattern - hahahaha - it is going into retirement from this winter season.

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Post by docstox12 Wed Mar 26, 2014 2:41 pm

@amugs wrote:Who wants more eye candy fantasy snow  - well the Canadian says hellooooo- IMO I don't see this accumulation but if we can get a coating to an inch good - if we get 6"+ for some higher elevations as depicted then I save my job/title (KSW)!!! king 

March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm Post-910-0-53565000-1395852719


Well, sometimes an absolute surprise hits in some winters.Maybe Mother Nature has a card up her sleeve somewhere,LOL! Nice to look at but don't let CP see this as our areas get blasted by this.The poor man doesn't deserve to be let down yet again after this cruel six weeks,LOL!

Anyway, don't mind the rain to wash away roadsalt and get rid of the ugly remaining snowpiles in parking lots.That's a self serving statement on my part because the rain will make the river levels perfect in three weeks for trout fishing.Interesting storm to track, anyway.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 26, 2014 2:42 pm

@amugs wrote:Frank, it wants no part of this weather pattern - hahahaha - it is going into retirement from this winter season.

Probably OD'd on algorithms. RIP Euro

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Post by amugs Wed Mar 26, 2014 3:06 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@amugs wrote:Frank, it wants no part of this weather pattern - hahahaha - it is going into retirement from this winter season.

Probably OD'd on algorithms. RIP Euro

Good One!! HAHAHA! Laughing Laughing 

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 26, 2014 3:08 pm

Lol @ your crawl on the top, Frank. "MISERABLE WEEKEND AHEAD."

We are all just so depressed and sick of this misses. I'm certainly not getting my hopes up for an April Fools Day snow. That way, it will happen. Laughing 
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 26, 2014 3:24 pm

Heh april fools snow, of course any real snow amounts are just north and west of me, seems its either south or north. If this does transpire at least I hope we get 3-4 inches+, shows that in some spots. As for the rain its actually not a bad thing in my book, gives me every reason to stay inside and finish my midterms!

Looks like it will be very windy again too with that storm.

Question: I notice that the darker colors on wind maps do not go over land but show up on the other side where the circle of the low would connect. Do those winds just not show up over land or are they just only that strong over the water? Seems they would go inland a tad, and man its windy today a full soda cup blew off my car today grr. Lucky I saved most of it.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Mar 26, 2014 3:24 pm

Surface temperatures are too warm on the 12z GFS, would not accumulate besides maybe far NW.
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 26, 2014 3:29 pm

EURO is showing a complete DELUGE on Sunday.
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Post by amugs Wed Mar 26, 2014 3:45 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:EURO is showing a complete DELUGE on Sunday.

That maybe because it is an hour behind and back-ended the whole run into one day!!

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 26, 2014 4:22 pm

Rain and wind do not fair well this time of year, mud is starting and trees will get weak, so we may see some power outages,  I am seeing wind advisory criteria at least on models at wxbell, of course this is subject to change.  I do not believe the snow on back end but it will be a nice surprise if it does, but after all that rain i imagine it wont stick, unless it snows really hard.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Mar 26, 2014 6:40 pm

18z GFS looks rather robust with rain and still trying to break out snow on the back end. Classic spring cutoff low which I was mentioning possible spring noreaster season and this looks like the first.
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Post by oldtimer Wed Mar 26, 2014 7:18 pm

When does this gets started? I hope late Fri out here

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 26, 2014 7:30 pm

@oldtimer wrote:When does this gets started?  I hope late Fri out here

Like 1pm Friday, ends 8-9pm Friday then starts up again Saturday around Noon

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