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March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm

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Post by Joe Snow Wed Mar 26, 2014 10:35 pm

March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm - Page 2 Oh85


The GFS gives us a Sliver of hope............LOL
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:33 pm

Gunna stick with just rain in the forecast for now

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Mar 27, 2014 4:07 am

00z EURO shows almost 4" of rain for NYC metro.
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Post by Quietace Thu Mar 27, 2014 6:24 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:00z EURO shows almost 4" of rain for NYC metro.
Its alot
March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm - Page 2 Ecmwf_53

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 27, 2014 6:36 am

Damnit ace you beat me to it lol was just going to post lol
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 27, 2014 6:37 am

Did you see the snowfall forcast for MA into Maine? Luckies.
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Post by Quietace Thu Mar 27, 2014 10:19 am

NAM Frontal Passage QPF.
March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm - Page 2 Nam_to17

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 27, 2014 10:21 am

Lots of rain heading our way. Here is the break down:

Friday Noon-10pm: Around .25-.50 inches of rain expected

There will be a break until Saturday Noon time which is when rain should begin falling again. This time, it will last into Sunday morning. 2+ inches of rain is possible within that time frame, making total rainfall for this weekend in the 2-3 inch range.

Areas only north and west, particularly in elevation, have a chance of seeing rain change to snow Sunday morning. Everyone should remain rain for the most part.

Miserable weekend.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 27, 2014 10:46 am

Ehh, I wouldnt say miserable, at least it wont be very cold. The worst weekends were when it was like 10 degrees and just instant pain when stepping outside.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 27, 2014 10:47 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Ehh, I wouldnt say miserable, at least it wont be very cold. The worst weekends were when it was like 10 degrees and just instant pain when stepping outside.

Overcast with frequent rain will make it feel like it is in the 30's.

Miserable.

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 27, 2014 10:59 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Ehh, I wouldnt say miserable, at least it wont be very cold. The worst weekends were when it was like 10 degrees and just instant pain when stepping outside.

Overcast with frequent rain will make it feel like it is in the 30's.

Miserable.

I concur - i always say give me 30 and snow over rain and raw/cold where it can't snow due to the temp being a bit too warm - if you can call it that - on the weekend too how cruel!!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 27, 2014 11:03 am

Finally lots of precip around and not enough cold air in the area for snow.

Simply maddening, these last 6-7 weeks.
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Mar 27, 2014 11:03 am

We're bringing in the last of the firewood for the weekend....luckily we don't have any plans so I can enjoy the fire and maybe a good movie!

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 27, 2014 11:32 am

Same here home work and being lazy lol, maybe laundry. Do not need to go anywhere.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 27, 2014 11:38 am

What are the initilization times for the models, 06z, 12z, 18z and 00z for each model? I need to know so I can step away from the computer and know when to come back. Thanks to anyone who can tkae the time to answer this, I know the approximate times but I need to write it down.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:02 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:What are the initilization times for the models, 06z, 12z, 18z and 00z for each model?  I need to know so I can step away from the computer and know when to come back. Thanks to anyone who can tkae the time to answer this, I know the approximate times but I need to write it down.

6z - 7am

12z- 11:30am

18z- 5:30pm

00z- 11:30pm

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:02 pm

Those are the times the model runs end, not initialization.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:06 pm

Ok thx, makes sense, I thought Euro was very late at night?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:10 pm

I have wxbell and I know the Euro comes in at like 2am or something like that, none of us usally stay up for it. Were you speaking of one model in particular or all of them?
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:10 pm

Oh you wanted every model? That is just the GFS.

GFS QPF for this weekend. Lots of rain for LI

March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm - Page 2 Gfs_namer_111_precip_ptot

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Post by Quietace Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:11 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Oh you wanted every model? That is just the GFS.

GFS QPF for this weekend. Lots of rain for LI

March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm - Page 2 Gfs_namer_111_precip_ptot
Rain lasts very late into Sunday Night. Similar to what the Euro was showing.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:13 pm

Jeeze 12z GFS has 6+ inches of prtecip for eastern LI and into CT and RI. Is this possible? Talk about a flood potential.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:13 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Oh you wanted every model? That is just the GFS.

GFS QPF for this weekend. Lots of rain for LI

March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm - Page 2 Gfs_namer_111_precip_ptot
Rain lasts very late into Sunday Night. Similar to what the Euro was showing.

Yup, I have not looked at H5 but there must be another piece of energy coming down into the trough which could be sparking additional precip along the coast. If this is truly the case, both Saturday and Sunday could be washouts (except Saturday morning) and coastal NJ / NYC / LI could see 2-3+ inches of rain

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Post by Quietace Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:16 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Jeeze 12z GFS has 6+ inches of prtecip for eastern LI and into CT and RI.  Is this possible?  Talk about a flood potential.
Close up.
March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm - Page 2 Gfs_tp12

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:16 pm

Its about an hour increment before and after for the other models right?
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