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March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm

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Analog96
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Post by aiannone Thu Mar 27, 2014 8:19 pm

I posted the videos from my storm chase in it's own topic!
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 27, 2014 8:19 pm

Holy wet!!


March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm - Page 4 GFS-ENS_QPFtotal_na_f96

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 27, 2014 9:02 pm

So mugs this could be a snow storm if it strengthens enough even without cold air in place? It could produce its own cold? Ya holy wet, 3+ inches, 12z Euro was crazy, wonder what 00z will show. Flooding I meant mainly urban,so could make areas of roads tricky.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 27, 2014 11:42 pm

Does anyone know why none of the models on wxbell have not updated past 12z and 18z? Its almost midnight, the NAM and GFS should have at least gone by now. Even on instantwxmaps they finished.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 28, 2014 12:22 am

00z GFS has a 992mb storm off the coast bringing 2-3+ inch rains to the area. Tomorrow's front won't be a whole lot. Real action starts Saturday afternoon into late Sunday night.

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Mar 28, 2014 12:52 am

Upton released HWO:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
958 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2014

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-290200-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
958 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL...FALLING MOSTLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MARCH HAS BEEN
DRY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE URBAN FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE CAUSED BY
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL SLOWLY PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH
AFTER IT EMERGES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Mar 28, 2014 7:22 am

6z GFS is 2-4" of rain NW of I-95 this time, less south and east.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 28, 2014 7:53 am

This may end up as a fairly decent snowfall in the Catskills of New York. Even the hill towns there above 1500 feet may see a couple of inches with this. Unfortunately for all the members of this forum even all of the members in the Hudson Valley this is just going to be a drenching cold rain.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Mar 28, 2014 8:36 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Analog96 Fri Mar 28, 2014 7:58 am

@jmanley32 wrote:So mugs this could be a snow storm if it strengthens enough even without cold air in place? It could produce its own cold?  Ya holy wet, 3+ inches,  12z Euro was crazy, wonder what 00z will show.  Flooding I meant mainly urban,so could make areas of roads tricky.
We aren't getting snow.
However, at least it will be good to see a nice storm break up the boring weather pattern.
This time of year you have to look forward to a good rain storm.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 28, 2014 9:05 am

Siding with the EURO model for now with this one in terms of qpf. 2-3 inches likely with isolated 3+ possible

March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm - Page 4 Post-155-0-38060000-1395987927

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 28, 2014 10:32 am

I THINK THATS MORE THAN ENOUGH RAIN FRANK LOL, IF ITS OVER THAT SPAN OF TIME i CAN'T IMAGINE IT WILL BE SUPER HEAVY. UPDATED UPTON HWO:

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE REGION HAS BEEN VERY DRY OF LATE...THE
MOST LIKELY RESULT FROM THIS RAINFALL IS URBAN FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT AND/OR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 28, 2014 10:39 am

Also from Upton discussion, winds could be a issue along with possiblenthunder from convection that was not mentioned before but both are low probability at this pt.

THE OCCLUDING LOW WILL
HAVE WIND POTENTIAL...BUT THIS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM
THE LOW CENTER. AS A RESULT...SUN MAY NOT BE VERY WINDY IF THE LOW
TRACKS TOO CLOSE TO THE AREA.

ALSO NOTE IN THE GUIDANCE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM KEEPS THE
BULK OF THIS THREAT OFFSHORE...THE ECMWF BRINGS TO MOST OF THE
AREA...WHILE THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

I guess its better than no storm at all but man if this was snow, holy smokes!
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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 28, 2014 10:47 am

Rain moving in with the front.
58.5 here.
March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm - Page 4 Nerad218

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 28, 2014 2:15 pm

Euro trying to get backend snow into the area again Sunday night into Monday morning. Not sure I believe this right now.

March 28-31st Possible Rain Storm - Page 4 R88j74


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Post by pdubz Fri Mar 28, 2014 3:20 pm

Here we go again with the snow teasing
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Mar 28, 2014 3:59 pm

Flood watch issued....Snow is so much better...don't have to worry about folks getting flooded out

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 28, 2014 4:10 pm

Floodwatch just issued for NYC tristate area and CT.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 28, 2014 4:10 pm

Ahh dunnzoo you beat me to it, I didnt refresh page to see you had already posted lol
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Post by Dtone Fri Mar 28, 2014 4:13 pm

Flood watch N&W of NYC.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
353 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ067>071-291000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0002.140330T0400Z-140331T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
353 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...FAIRFIELD...NEW HAVEN...MIDDLESEX AND NEW
LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...BERGEN...PASSAIC...ESSEX...HUDSON
AND UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...ORANGE...PUTNAM...ROCKLAND
AND WESTCHESTER.

* FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COASTAL PLAIN ON SATURDAY...STEADY
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN
SHOULD THEN BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

* RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AND LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES COULD CAUSE
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING.

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Post by Dtone Fri Mar 28, 2014 4:14 pm

I was gonna say why not other areas but I see they did after all

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Mar 28, 2014 4:14 pm

It is just going to be downright UGLY!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Mar 28, 2014 4:25 pm

Is their any flood watches issued for coastal sections
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 28, 2014 4:27 pm

I think its mainly a floodwatch for rain reasons, although I could see some coastal erosion/flood issues and or wind if the low tightens up more than expected.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Mar 28, 2014 4:30 pm

12z EURO QPF, models seem to be honing in on around 2" of rain possibly more up to 3, not too concerned about flooding as it's been pretty dry around here this month. Only got .05" of rain today which makes month total 1.15"

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 28, 2014 4:35 pm

Only takes one rainstorm like this to overflow our two main rivers saw mill and bronx river, and the parkways themselves have alot of areas that pool sometimes up to feet, in less, so I do expect issues here especiually since I am in the orange area.
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