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Official Long Range Thread 3.0

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Post by algae888 Sun Apr 13, 2014 12:52 pm

both 12z nam and gfs has snow on the backend of the front on tues night as a wave of low pressure forms behind front. nam more robust with this precip and gfs has a nice slug of moisture lingering behind front. do not have snow maps for these. does any one think this is possible?
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Post by algae888 Sun Apr 13, 2014 12:55 pm

cmc has some descent snow for nw n.j. and orange county but very little closer to city
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Post by Quietace Sun Apr 13, 2014 1:05 pm

@algae888 wrote:cmc has some descent snow for nw n.j. and orange county but very little closer to city
GEM is a C to a inch,
NAM is C-3 inches
GFS is really nothing except in higher elevations in the Poconos and in PA
Precip looks to light to accumulate on every model and or 2m temps are above freezing and the snow would melt before hitting the surface. Climo wise id say this is a no. Maybe, maybe white rain if 850s crash fast enough, but id bet against it unless your in PA into the HV at this point.

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Post by docstox12 Sun Apr 13, 2014 7:08 pm

Hilarious! Nearly 80 degrees Sunday, and Tuesday night snow showers,27 degrees with wind gusts of 35 MPH!

April.......the classic battleground of winter and summer at it's best!
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:41 am

Oh realllllly. ;-)

http://nypost.com/2014/04/14/stifling-heat-heavy-rains-to-hit-nyc-this-summer/
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Apr 15, 2014 12:51 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Oh realllllly. ;-)

http://nypost.com/2014/04/14/stifling-heat-heavy-rains-to-hit-nyc-this-summer/

This statement is just absolutely ridiculous and I severely am threatening to contact the author of that article and give him a pierce of my mind.

Duncan said a severe hurricane will likely threaten the East Coast sometime between Sept. 16 and 19, and take a course similar to that of Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

They did say intensity is uncertain, but the fact that they reference Sandy just alone makes me furious. The track Sandy took was probably once in a lifetime. To not only have blocking but to have a trough capture the storm and turn it west is very rare.

Psh.

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Post by essexcountypete Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:45 pm

^^^ I second your "psh" and add my own "wha?!"
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:54 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:Oh realllllly. ;-)

http://nypost.com/2014/04/14/stifling-heat-heavy-rains-to-hit-nyc-this-summer/

This statement is just absolutely ridiculous and I severely am threatening to contact the author of that article and give him a pierce of my mind.

Duncan said a severe hurricane will likely threaten the East Coast sometime between Sept. 16 and 19, and take a course similar to that of Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

They did say intensity is uncertain, but the fact that they reference Sandy just alone makes me furious. The track Sandy took was probably once in a lifetime. To not only have blocking but to have a trough capture the storm and turn it west is very rare.

Psh.

You're preaching to the choir, Frank. I couldn't believe it when I read it. But I thought you all should see what Old Farmer is press-releasing (to the Post, no less...)

I'd go on a rant about negligence but you're all aware how feisty I get on that topic.. ;-)
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Apr 15, 2014 8:44 pm

Wow, thats crazy, that is all true "according to the farmers almanac" BUT to put a press release out from a source that is projected a year in advance is ridiculous ( and more than often wrong, though they do get things sometimes somewhat right), and yes mentioning Sandy will only plaster mass hysteria on people hard hit and cause unessary panic for now, you never know we may get a major hurricane, is it possible sure, but WAY to early to say anything at all....zip it to this writer.

Did they even forecast anything when Sandy hit? I appear to remember they said nothing for that day but I could be wrong.

Frank do your duty and write to them it won't hurt. Just be polite and factual, your a smart guy I don't need to tell ya that : )
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Post by amugs Wed Apr 16, 2014 9:14 am

OFA is on crack with that prediction on Sandy like storm - jman is right the panic would be unbelievable as the great Socrates once said
"The masses are irrational"

How many times have we seen this happen? Too many.

I can see the heat from the strong El Nino - reported to be 1.5 to 2 range on the scale at this time if I read it correctly - wet, humid and hot possibly - that big Hadley High (hey there's an old Understanding the Weather class term Prof Strohm pounded into our heads from Montclair State College 1988) will be holding us hostage.

We shall see..

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Apr 16, 2014 6:16 pm

Well mugs I wouldn't say a hurricane is impossible up here but one taking the same track probably not. A few places I have read predictions that do cite the northern east coast as a hot spot this year, kinda concerning but we can't predict 5 months in advance lol.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Apr 16, 2014 7:20 pm

Hey NJweather, is your avatar sandys wind field? If so is there anyway I could get a full size copy of that pic from you? I have a collection of Sandy images but not that one. I really want it.
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Post by amugs Wed Apr 16, 2014 7:26 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Well mugs I wouldn't say a hurricane is impossible up here but one taking the same track probably not.  A few places I have read predictions that do cite the northern east coast as a hot spot this year, kinda concerning but we can't predict 5 months in advance lol.

Jman,

Tis true and I am not refuting at all the fact that we can and have seen H storms and trop storms up here and I remember many of them.

The fact is the prediction of a Sandy-isque storm is off the wall IMHO - that is all I was saying .


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Post by jmanley32 Wed Apr 16, 2014 7:33 pm

I agree saying something like a chance of a hurricane hitting east coast this year would have even been better than saying sandy like. Just the word sandy brings up bad memories, very few people in the future are going to be named sandy, watch.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Apr 16, 2014 7:40 pm

After doing some research on FA, I guess they have a bit more merit than I gave them, so if what they say is true that a major hurricane will threaten us, well ya yikes. I compared some of their predictions from this past winter and they did get numerous things right, but others wrong. So its a 50/50 and a threat at best, a threat doesn't mean a landfall, so even if a storm developed and headed anywhere near the area and missed they would be right. Their statements are vague, except the Sandy part, which is just off the wall balls out dumb. And a lot of people probably saw that article.
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Post by amugs Wed Apr 23, 2014 9:23 am

With the slow development of el nino now and possible neg nao the rest of the spring could be cooler than average...This is from a another board poster's info "we haven't seen a temperature below the 40 degree mark in May for NYC since 1978"

Could that happen this year?...I think there is a chance for that the first week of May.

We shall see!!

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Apr 23, 2014 6:13 pm

@amugs wrote:With the slow development of el nino now and possible neg nao the rest of the spring could be cooler than average...This is from a another board poster's info "we haven't seen a temperature below the 40 degree mark in May for NYC since 1978"

Could that happen this year?...I think there is a chance for that the first week of May.

We shall see!!

No thanks, lets hope it's out to lunch long range models but sadly it has support.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Cant believe we had no neg NAO all winter and now it decides to get down at the worst time.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Apr 24, 2014 10:24 am

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 5 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_25

As previously mentioned, the NAO is going negative and this is going to promote storms to cut off along the east coast. We are looking at a 4-day rain period next week, beginning Tuesday and lasting through Friday. It may not rain heavily, or even moderately, all those days. But it will be overcast with periods of showers every single day, moderate at times.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 5 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_25

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Post by docstox12 Thu Apr 24, 2014 3:46 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@amugs wrote:With the slow development of el nino now and possible neg nao the rest of the spring could be cooler than average...This is from a another board poster's info "we haven't seen a temperature below the 40 degree mark in May for NYC since 1978"

Could that happen this year?...I think there is a chance for that the first week of May.

We shall see!!

No thanks, lets hope it's out to lunch long range models but sadly it has support.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Cant believe we had no neg NAO all winter and now it decides to get down at the worst time.

Yeah, that negative NAO is a day late and a dollar short for my liking.

Looks like cool and wet through the first week of May.Need a nice warm,not too hot, spell for a week to finally shake out the winter chill still in me.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 24, 2014 4:12 pm

It had to rain on the day we took off for my daughters first birthday to the zoo. Grrrrr what a waste.
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Post by GreyBeard Thu Apr 24, 2014 7:10 pm

I guess it'll be a good time to get some grass seed and fertilizer down next week. Things are finally starting to green up a bit,which is a good thing. Tired of looking at a brown lawn.

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Post by amugs Thu Apr 24, 2014 8:59 pm

N
@docstox12 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@amugs wrote:With the slow development of el nino now and possible neg nao the rest of the spring could be cooler than average...This is from a another board poster's info "we haven't seen a temperature below the 40 degree mark in May for NYC since 1978"

Could that happen this year?...I think there is a chance for that the first week of May.

We shall see!!

No thanks, lets hope it's out to lunch long range models but sadly it has support.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Cant believe we had no neg NAO all winter and now it decides to get down at the worst time.

Yeah, that negative NAO is a day late and a dollar short for my liking.

Looks like cool and wet through the first week of May.Need a nice warm,not too hot, spell for a week to finally shake out the winter chill still in me.
Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 5 Gfs_namer_156_precip_p60

Doc, the second week of  May we look to get into the 70's and even 80's but we have to get through the next 7 days before we get this friggin - NAO out of here a season late with this what a shame!!

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Post by docstox12 Fri Apr 25, 2014 6:06 am

Sounds great,Mugsy, on that 70's-80's soon! I need it.
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Post by nofoboater Fri Apr 25, 2014 9:06 am

I second that Doc.


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Post by amugs Fri Apr 25, 2014 12:51 pm

I think after this elongated winter and next week Doc and Nofo we all need it!! Very Happy Very Happy 

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