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Official Long Range Thread 3.0

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Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 16 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by amugs Tue Sep 30, 2014 1:57 pm

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_300_500_vort_ht.gif

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 16 Gfs_namer_300_500_vort_ht

BIZENNNNNNNNNNNNNNNGAAAAAA!!!! Got it for you  Algae!!
cheers cheers cheers

Right click and choose Copy Image URL!!

Then past this into the Insert an Image Icon URL!


Last edited by amugs on Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:28 pm; edited 5 times in total

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 30, 2014 2:19 pm

LOL mugs is no better at posting images jk, anyways I thought it was interesting that the GFS lost the caribbean system for 14th hitting FL yesterday for a few runs completely to only bring it back today at 12z. Also the CMC went haywire in the central atlantic but if you take your eyes off that mumbo jumbo and look at 240 hrs in the deep caribbean there is a 1008mb low starting as the GFS also at 240hrs has a 1008mb low which eventually develops and moves pretty much due north like sandy and ends at 384 on southern tip of eastern FL. Now I do not know miuch about models losing things and bringing them back but wouldn't this be a possible sign that its something to watch coming into the 10 day range? Yes still far out but not 16 days.

Also,mugs, do you think it makes sense to just post on this here in long range when it is long range or would you prefer I continue in the tropics section? After all for us, if this storm did affect us mid-late october it would likely not be fully tropical like sandy was so it technically wouldnt belong in tropics section.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Sep 30, 2014 3:15 pm

amugs wrote:Analogs are good points of reference but never etched in stone. November is usually the month that give us the signals for winter so I agree Frank but Al there have been a few where things have flipped - Nov cold and mild winter or Nov warm and cold winters - I was just pointing out that the AO is tanking and the NAO is going negative for this month. The -EPO will be there and to me this is a really long stretch for this - ENSO will play a factor as will SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) low cycle of solar activity that has and still is occurring and other variables - sea ice extent and snow pack in the North Country. So, in my heart i would love the set up i posted above and I agree Al it will be an exciting winter but patience is required until the time comes.

i can't tell you how many people and students keep asking me about this winter everyday - if I had a dollar for each one I'd retire.

Latest ENSO readings a couple of weeks back were +.5 so it is gearing up - it was suppose to happen this spring so I personally don't mind it happening for a couple of months and being in the +1 (+) range (1.0 - 1.Cool.
Very encouraging signs, amugs. To me, the key to this winter- as in most, is the -NAO factor. If we could just lock this in this winter coupled with a developing EL Nino, things will get mighty interesting. Just think, all that moisture flowing north from the gulf, while the north atlantic blocking serving to slow things down. Lot's of phasing situations for sure. With the slow nature of the developing EL Nino, if the above aforementioned scenario were to occur, I can see this happening the second half of winter.
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:31 pm

jmanley32 wrote:LOL mugs is no better at posting images jk, anyways I thought it was interesting that the GFS lost the caribbean system for 14th hitting FL yesterday for a few runs completely to only bring it back today at 12z.  Also the CMC went haywire in the central atlantic but if you take your eyes off that mumbo jumbo and look at 240 hrs in the deep caribbean there is a 1008mb low starting as the GFS also at 240hrs has a 1008mb low which eventually develops and moves pretty much due north like sandy and ends at 384 on southern tip of eastern FL.  Now I do not know miuch about models losing things and bringing them back but wouldn't this be a possible sign that its something to watch coming into the 10 day range?  Yes still far out but not 16 days.

Also,mugs, do you think it makes sense to just post on this here in long range when it is long range or would you prefer I continue in the tropics section?  After all for us, if this storm did affect us mid-late october it would likely not be fully tropical like sandy was so it technically wouldnt belong in tropics section.
I tried to posts Al's image but doesn't work just post the link

Jman I am not the one who runs the show but IMHO I would say put it in the long range - may have to lock the tropics thread since it is non existent but then again you never know.

Now with that system IF it comes north we are going to have from pronged forecast a good -  NAO - Greenland block so it could get interesting if this were to take shape big trough on the east for middle of the month!

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Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 16 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:20 am

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 16 Test8

Positive height anomalies are overtaking much of Canada in the 8-10 day range. We are likely to see our coolest weather of the season by Saturday night through Sunday.

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Post by amugs Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:07 am

Okay tis the season - the Winter Storm Names by the Weather Channel
Let' shope and pray it is much better than the hurricane season!!
Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 16 By27XZJIQAAyr3y

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Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 16 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:47 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 16 Test8

Positive height anomalies are overtaking much of Canada in the 8-10 day range. We are likely to see our coolest weather of the season by Saturday night through Sunday.
How cold are we talking about Frank for high and low temps
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:07 pm

amugs wrote:Okay tis the season - the Winter Storm Names by the Weather Channel
Let' shope and pray it is much better than the hurricane season!!
Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 16 By27XZJIQAAyr3y

What happened to "W?"

skinsfan1177 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 16 Test8

Positive height anomalies are overtaking much of Canada in the 8-10 day range. We are likely to see our coolest weather of the season by Saturday night through Sunday.
How cold are we talking about Frank for high and low temps

High's in the 60's, low's in the upper 40's. Most likely Sunday.

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Post by sabamfa Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:20 pm

What are you guys thinking for Saturday during the day? I was planning on going to an outdoor event in morristown nj.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:37 pm

sabamfa wrote:What are you guys thinking for Saturday during the day? I was planning on going to an outdoor event in morristown nj.

As the scroll says, not too good. 

Rain to move in around 6-7am and persist through 6pm. It should end fairly early on in the evening. Around half an inch likely.

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Post by sabamfa Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:57 pm

Thanks, Frank. On my phone the scroll isn't too noticeable.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:46 pm

sabamfa wrote:Thanks, Frank. On my phone the scroll isn't too noticeable.

Made the font a little bigger and bolder Smile

Your welcome

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:20 pm

So I was looking at the long range ensemble runs and bothe the GEFS and Euro do show some runs of a possible storm originating in the carribean and some coming up this way. A few GEFS were nuts with 100+kt storm just barely offshore of jersey or cape cod. That is just crazy and probably phantom, but if something were to form it looks to be around 8-10th and then head toward US toward the middle to second half of the month. Hey until I get to track snow this is what I get to look at. If it isn't a phantom storm then better be prepared.
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Post by Isotherm Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:32 pm

Can't wait to feel that airmass on Sunday. First real blast of cold, autumnal air of the season. Today was quite cool, yes, with a high of 65, but the humidity was quite high, so it didn't feel all that cool (just damp). To me, real fall weather is sunny w/ highs of 65F or lower with nights in the 40s (or lower). Looks like we'll get that for at least a day, prior to the return of ridging next week. At this point I'm expecting departures of around +1 for October, slightly above normal, due to WAR resistance. The AO will tank over the next week, but we've seen normal to mild Octobers w/ a negative AO around here. If the NAO isn't strongly negative, it's tough to achieve sustained negative departures on the East Coast in October. I think the Mid-west and Rockies will probably be in the freezer though this month.

Beyond that, the Nino is still puny, but we've got time. Most data and guidance suggests a peak of +0.5c to +0.8c in region 3.4, which would satisfy the weak nino criteria. Frankly, we don't need a stronger Nino up here. In the Mid atlantic, they need the STJ - and while it does help here - we usually can do very well w/ Miller B, northern stream induced events. See the winters of 2003-04 and 2004-05, where CNJ northeastward was significantly snowier than PHL southwest.

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Post by docstox12 Thu Oct 02, 2014 4:23 am

Isotherm wrote:Can't wait to feel that airmass on Sunday. First real blast of cold, autumnal air of the season. Today was quite cool, yes, with a high of 65, but the humidity was quite high, so it didn't feel all that cool (just damp). To me, real fall weather is sunny w/ highs of 65F or lower with nights in the 40s (or lower). Looks like we'll get that for at least a day, prior to the return of ridging next week. At this point I'm expecting departures of around +1 for October, slightly above normal, due to WAR resistance. The AO will tank over the next week, but we've seen normal to mild Octobers w/ a negative AO around here. If the NAO isn't strongly negative, it's tough to achieve sustained negative departures on the East Coast in October. I think the Mid-west and Rockies will probably be in the freezer though this month.

Beyond that, the Nino is still puny, but we've got time. Most data and guidance suggests a peak of +0.5c to +0.8c in region 3.4, which would satisfy the weak nino criteria. Frankly, we don't need a stronger Nino up here. In the Mid atlantic, they need the STJ - and while it does help here - we usually can do very well w/ Miller B, northern stream induced events. See the winters of 2003-04 and 2004-05, where CNJ northeastward was significantly snowier than PHL southwest.

Very nicely explained.Love your handle, Hugh Laurie in "House",great show!

Will be great to get some rain and the first cool snap in Autumn.I fired up the boilers in my two current properties to make sure everything is working.Leaves 50% changed up here in Monroe HV NY and 25% down in Mahwah NJ.

Will see how the telleconnections line up by Nov 15th to get a clearer winter picture.October usually a wild card for predicting a winter up here.

I think last year we had a contest predicting first snows, first subfreezing day, etc.Got my stuff all worked up including my own seat of the pants, 54 years observing winter forecast ready.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:36 am

docstox12 wrote:
Isotherm wrote:Can't wait to feel that airmass on Sunday. First real blast of cold, autumnal air of the season. Today was quite cool, yes, with a high of 65, but the humidity was quite high, so it didn't feel all that cool (just damp). To me, real fall weather is sunny w/ highs of 65F or lower with nights in the 40s (or lower). Looks like we'll get that for at least a day, prior to the return of ridging next week. At this point I'm expecting departures of around +1 for October, slightly above normal, due to WAR resistance. The AO will tank over the next week, but we've seen normal to mild Octobers w/ a negative AO around here. If the NAO isn't strongly negative, it's tough to achieve sustained negative departures on the East Coast in October. I think the Mid-west and Rockies will probably be in the freezer though this month.

Beyond that, the Nino is still puny, but we've got time. Most data and guidance suggests a peak of +0.5c to +0.8c in region 3.4, which would satisfy the weak nino criteria. Frankly, we don't need a stronger Nino up here. In the Mid atlantic, they need the STJ - and while it does help here - we usually can do very well w/ Miller B, northern stream induced events. See the winters of 2003-04 and 2004-05, where CNJ northeastward was significantly snowier than PHL southwest.

Very nicely explained.Love your handle, Hugh Laurie in "House",great show!

Will be great to get some rain and the first cool snap in Autumn.I fired up the boilers in my two current properties to make sure everything is working.Leaves 50% changed up here in Monroe HV NY and 25% down in Mahwah NJ.

Will see how the telleconnections line up by Nov 15th to get a clearer winter picture.October usually a wild card for predicting a winter up here.

I think last year we had a contest predicting first snows, first subfreezing day, etc.Got my stuff all worked up including my own seat of the pants, 54 years observing winter forecast ready.

That contest is going to happen sooner this year, because I remember some categories getting crossed off in November.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:40 am

The EURO is now showing milder weather in the long range, which as I explained up top can be expected. Enjoy the short lived cooler weather Saturday night through Monday while it lasts.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:40 am

The same drivers that lead to warmer anomalies on the east coast this fall will lead to colder and wetter ones in the winter. From what I understand its all about the wave lengths.

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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 02, 2014 3:22 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The EURO is now showing milder weather in the long range, which as I explained up top can be expected. Enjoy the short lived cooler weather Saturday night through Monday while it lasts.

gfs has backed off of the cold mid month. similar to euro. looks like we will have a ridge in the east around the 12th and lasting for awhile. we may have to wait until the very end of month to see some rally cold air.Sad Evil or Very Mad
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:13 pm

I know this is way pre-mature but it is the same system that comes out of carribbean and man does the 18z GFS give us one heck of a coastal around 14-17th, by my calculations those winds would be about 50-70mph surface and a ton of rain!

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 16 Gfs_3011

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:13 pm

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 16 Gfs_3210
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:14 pm

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 16 Gfs_3310
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:15 pm

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 16 Gfs_3410
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:16 pm

And notice another brewing in the deep carribbean 1005mb, I think the second half of this month could be interesting especially if the setup is like what mugs said. I remember plenty of severe noreasters around or before halloween even when i was young.
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Post by HectorO Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:32 pm

So it looks like a balmy mild October. What a waste of a good month that October usually is. If the temper takes a dip at the end leading into November its going to absolutely suck. I like a nice moderate trend, not warm then BOOM cold.
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Post by devsman Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:43 pm

Jman. It seems the GFS has the same pattern of maps for the last 4 months. Shows a huge storm in 2 weeks, then moves that storm to a week later, then all the sudden makes it disappear within a 6 hour window. I'm starting to lose faith in that model for any big nor'easter it shows. Hopefully it will be more reliable in the winter.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:45 pm

dev I agree, to a extent, but this has been brought back and gone for a while now and it has been landing in the US generally around the same time so unlike in May and June it isnt constantly moving back in time. Was just a observation a WHAT IF, senario. As I said premature.
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