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Official Long Range Thread 3.0

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Apr 08, 2014 9:09 am

I need to make it clear though that I by no means really believe what he says but he certainly has quite a video about it on wxbell. And how could they stop this "nonsense" its a model its going to throw out what it does, right? Unless we upgrade it I don't see improvements in long run, and Euro usually is our best long ranger but has shown many of these type storms this year to never happen let alone in friggin april.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Apr 08, 2014 9:10 am

You know the highest shaded area kinda looks like a alien sitting its butt right on NYC lol, Euro's little april fools joke to late?
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Apr 08, 2014 10:09 am

@amugs wrote: lol! 
@jmanley32 wrote:You guys thought the Euro was bonkers yesterday check this out!  NOW wait till this hits facebook!  Holy crap, just imagine!  Would be a record I imagine, Euro has a low stalling off coast and then moving due east.  30-40 inches, in April yeah ok, if this verified I would have to come up with something even more nutty to do than make snow angels in my jockeys lol.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 3 Holy_e10

They should be shot for even allowing this nonsense - do you know what type of storm dynamics we would need for such a storm - I am not even talking about April!!

The EURO I hanging out in that garage in Denver again like Upton was at  times this winter -HAHAHA!

Mugs:

We had this exact storm 4 years ago February 26, 2010. The snowfall totals on that map identical for most in our area.

Of course that was February this is the middle of April, it is a 1,000,000 to 1 maybe less.
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Post by amugs Tue Apr 08, 2014 11:03 am

CP - I hear ya !

the odds have decreased to 999,000 to 1 - LOL!

If we do get something like this I will do a snow angel in my tighty whiteys with my crown on!!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Apr 08, 2014 11:19 am

mugs, here is another map which shows this beast, i will hold you to that! Strange the way that rediculous precip goes up like that, and in 6 hrs, thats a insane snow rate.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 3 Wow10
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Apr 08, 2014 11:32 am

How long would this have to hold on on the models for anyone to start to think it was even a 1:1,000,000? The other models are showing a storm too in this time frame, just not a frankroidzilla.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Apr 08, 2014 11:46 am

@jmanley32 wrote:How long would this have to hold on on the models for anyone to start to think it was even a 1:1,000,000?  The other models are showing a storm too in this time frame, just not a frankroidzilla.

How about the day before, even then I would have my doubts.

Euro has shown at least a half dozen storms like this in the long range the past 5 months and none came to fruition. It may even be more than that I've lost track.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Apr 08, 2014 12:46 pm

I hear ya CP, it'll probably be gone at least as snow in coming days, if not then we can get excited, man what a day it would be to get a blizzard in mid/late april. But as stated 999,000:1, if its rain thats still pretty crazy 6-8 inches.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Apr 08, 2014 1:04 pm

No merit to that storm. Pattern doesn't support one. Ignore.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Apr 08, 2014 1:19 pm

Won't happen
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Apr 08, 2014 1:35 pm

Just curious, how do you go back to older snow maps for Euro on wxbell? When I go to past runs there is no snowfall choice. Is there another archieve, or can you only view it run by run? I know this isnt going to happen but I had been wondering this since I joined.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Apr 08, 2014 1:39 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Just curious, how do you go back to older snow maps for Euro on wxbell?  When I go to past runs there is no snowfall choice.  Is there another archieve, or can you only view it run by run?  I know this isnt going to happen but I had been wondering this since I joined.

I think on the left hand side you can go back to older runs. But I don't think there is a way to see something from last week or something.

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Apr 08, 2014 1:53 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Just curious, how do you go back to older snow maps for Euro on wxbell?  When I go to past runs there is no snowfall choice.  Is there another archieve, or can you only view it run by run?  I know this isnt going to happen but I had been wondering this since I joined.

What interests me more are the EURO ensembles, with each snowfall totals on each member I take a screen-cap of each EURO ENS run and save it onto my computer. With the exception of the 1/10 0Z EURO ENS, I have every snowfall run saved since late last December. Maybe in a couple of weeks, I can put it all together to show you.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Apr 08, 2014 2:37 pm

Ok, are the ensembles more accurate for all weather senarios?
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Post by algae888 Tue Apr 08, 2014 3:11 pm

Gfs has a storm for next tues thru thurs with over 6 inches of rain. Does anyone think we will get this storm.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Apr 08, 2014 6:11 pm

Which GFS run? The 12z is total from today to 192 hrs, of 3-5 inches, not a big one.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Apr 08, 2014 7:03 pm

I do not see a single GFS run that has 6 inches of rain, algae where did you see this?
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Post by algae888 Tue Apr 08, 2014 11:24 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I do not see a single GFS run that has 6 inches of rain, algae where did you see this?

if you go from hr 162 to hr 216 there is about 6" of rain on the 12z gfs
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Apr 08, 2014 11:30 pm

Hey algae, well total qpf on 12z according to wxbell does amount to that, through hour 240. But maybe we are looking at different things.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Apr 08, 2014 11:33 pm

You know what ur probably right wxbell actually only goes to 192 hrs and its up to 4-5 by then. I think 18z backed down though.
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Post by amugs Wed Apr 09, 2014 2:27 pm

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 3 D13_fill

WPC saying a decent rain again Fri - early AM Sat

Euro saying .50"+ as well

Tis the season folks!! - no not xmass lol


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Post by amugs Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:38 pm

Gfs for next week 

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 3 F312

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Post by amugs Wed Apr 09, 2014 8:35 pm

Euro showing a considerable cool down after the nice warm up sun and mon - midweek it says 10* below normal

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 3 View.php?pic=eu1nyx&s=8#http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=eu1nyx&s=8#.U0Xmxsu9KSM

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Apr 09, 2014 9:05 pm

Looks like it will be at just about freezing to about 40* Wednesday and Thursday.....brrrrr

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Apr 09, 2014 11:57 pm

I'm not enthused about much rain Friday into Saturday morning. Around half an inch. That's about it. Which is not much.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 3 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_15

We will be looking at a decent warmup thanks to a cutoff low in the Midwest helping to pump heights along the eastern seaboard Sunday into Monday. Definitely 60's and possibly low 70's on Monday.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 3 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_25

Then the middle of next week temps take a drop unfortunately. Looking at temps around 3-5 degrees below average. Maybe a day late next week not getting out of the 40's. Lots of 50-degree readings expected. I do not expect it to last though since I think this -EPO regime breaks down sooner than we have seen in the winter. I think by Easter weekend, we will be warming up again to slightly above average.

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