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Official Long Range Thread 3.0

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 24, 2014 4:25 pm

So basically its up in the air still. Literally lol. Do you think the NWS outage could effect modeling, you know like the post I showed the other day. I guess we won't know really.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 24, 2014 4:36 pm

Let the tweeting hype (or doom for us all winter long snow lovers) begin! I am already reading about the arctic plunge and possible snow around halloween. I do not think though that people can go saying that just based on 2011 and 2012, before that when was the last time we had sig snow in the last week of October or the first week of November, (math, you got this one Smile?
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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 24, 2014 5:36 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Let the tweeting hype (or doom for us all winter long snow lovers) begin!  I am already reading about the arctic plunge and possible snow around halloween.  I do not think though that people can go saying that just based on 2011 and 2012, before that when was the last time we had sig snow in the last week of October or the first week of November, (math, you got this one Smile?

Dont be apart of it Jman. Just sit back and observe. Let the weenies be weenies. I will join in on the weenieness in about 3-5 days IF there is something to get excited about. For now we dont get sucked into the hype. You wont be let down that way.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Oct 24, 2014 6:26 pm

I think by now people on here would know 3-5 days is when we can start to take the models more serious. I hate getting hopes up 7-10 days out and nothing comes to fruitation.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:16 pm

Yes I thought however you guys had all agreed snow in October early november is bad. Meaning a warm winter. FWIW accuwx has rain on Nov 1st with sustained winds 25mph gusting to 69? I have always noticed that their wind forecasts are always vastly odd, like sometimes it will say very windy in the text but the gusts are to 35. Well for Nov. 1st it says windy with some rain, I would say thats EXTREMELY WINDY. But yes I know to wait for day 3-5, however it doesnt really upset me a ton if something doesn't pan out, there will always be more storms and more times to track. With that said I have no expectations of a possible storm on that timeframe but its def out there in various places.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:43 pm

OK will sit back as u said sroc, and I am a weenie maybe just one who gets a bit overexcited lol (please don't comment on that....) Anyways all is quiet for now until I see more talk on here I will not get caught up in it, or try not to.
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Post by HectorO Fri Oct 24, 2014 8:16 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Yes I thought however you guys had all agreed snow in October early november is bad.  Meaning a warm winter.  FWIW accuwx has rain on Nov 1st with sustained winds 25mph gusting to 69?  I have always noticed that their wind forecasts are always vastly odd, like sometimes it will say very windy in the text but the gusts are to 35.  Well for Nov. 1st it says windy with some rain, I would say thats EXTREMELY WINDY.  But yes I know to wait for day 3-5, however it doesnt really upset me a ton if something doesn't pan out, there will always be more storms and more times to track.  With that said I have no expectations of a possible storm on that timeframe but its def out there in various places.

I prefer no snow in October or November. I don't mind if you see a few flurries falling, but hate accumulation too early in the season.
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Post by HectorO Fri Oct 24, 2014 8:18 pm

@sroc4 wrote:More encouraging signs from Steve D this morning. I sit excited, yet cautiously optimistic and patient.



"The stratosphere is on a steady warming trend and is spreading from the top of the stratosphere to the bottom.  The developments of this warming will have a significant impact on the 500 MB pattern going forward.  What has my attention though is not only the steady warming but where that warming is happening.

So first, lets establish the fact that warming is happening at a steady rate from 1 MB down to 70 MB in the stratosphere.  I'm leaving out 100 MB as there is far too much contamination from the troposphere to make a specific detailed analysis.  However, the overall theme is the same, stratospheric warming is happening and it is become a steady uniform warm of the stratosphere.  In short, the average temperature in the stratosphere is heading to an above normal state, which tells us that below normal 500 MB heights will be prevalent for much of the higher and mid latitudes.  If you notice in the chart above at 50 MB there is a slight pause right now, but this same pause happened at 10 MB and 30 MB followed by a continuation of steady warming.  I expect this process to be repeated at 50 and 70 MB as well as the warmer stratospheric temperatures build down.  This warming is a result of a negative QBO influence with a lack of solar activity impacting the Earth (note the Sun spot in the news IS active but facing away from Earth, thus impacts limited), which is leading to an increase in ozone throughout the stratosphere and therefore the warming.

However, as alway, location is key!  Well, take a look at the latest observations!
Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 29 Image13
These observations are supported via the CPC and confirmed via ECMWF analysis.  The forecast for 10 days out on the ECMWF in fact focuses the warming even further over North America.  So what is this telling us?

Well, remember one of my wild card concerns for a bust in the Winter forecast is that the warmest anomalies set up in Asia rather than North America.  Based on this data, that bust potential is rapidly decreasing as the warmest stratospheric temperatures in an overall warming stratosphere are being found from the North Pacific to North America.  In fact, this warming would strongly suggest a significant disruption in the Polar Vortex circulation and that the break down of the Polar Vortex is likely to show up nicely after November 15th.  Why then?  Lag time.  The changes in the atmosphere takes time to evolve for the 500 MB pattern to show influence.  I like after November 15th to take into account the changing wave lengths, influence from rapid snow growth, and evolution of the weak El Nino that is developing.

So the moral of today's discussion is that pretty much everything I detailed in the stratospheric portion of the winter forecast is starting to fall into place."


Great write up! Even though temps around the 15th will be steadier and colder, prior to that we will still see some cold temps especially starting the first of the month.
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Post by algae888 Fri Oct 24, 2014 8:20 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:OK will sit back as u said sroc, and I am a weenie maybe just one who gets a bit overexcited lol (please don't comment on that....) Anyways all is quiet for now until I see more talk on here I will not get caught up in it, or try not to.

jman a bit?? sorry had to comment friend, couldn't help it. and yes we should have a lot to track soon.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 24, 2014 8:51 pm

How did I know it would be you AL!
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Post by algae888 Fri Oct 24, 2014 10:40 pm

whether or not we get a storm, it is looking more and more likely that we will get a nice cold shot the beginning of nov. temps could stay in the 40's for a couple of days with lows 32 or below area wide. thats about 10+ degrees below normal. after that signs are that we will warm up through mid month. we shall see
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 25, 2014 12:26 am

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 29 October_25_2014_121850_AM_EDT

00z GFS has no phase of the northern and southern short waves on the 31st, meaning no big storm shown. However, there's still a chance the energy in the polar jet stream produces rain or snow showers Halloween night. Still worth watching!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 25, 2014 12:48 am

Yea I just meant no phase in time for us to see something worthwhile

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 25, 2014 1:09 am

Right but it was close, there have been runs that do phase it like 06z on Thursday, so as u said still worth watching but we are still about 3-4 days away from being in a trustable range.
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Post by algae888 Sat Oct 25, 2014 7:37 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 29 October_25_2014_121850_AM_EDT

00z GFS has no phase of the northern and southern short waves on the 31st, meaning no big storm shown. However, there's still a chance the energy in the polar jet stream produces rain or snow showers Halloween night. Still worth watching!

frank euro now has a closed low to our west and cuts it off for a few days but is warm. cmc and gfs are colder and gfs ensembles show a few hits for us. I think there is still a chance for the phase, gfs is close to one. where the phase happens is still uncertain. (if it happens) so storm still on the table imo.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Oct 25, 2014 7:48 am

Here is an update on the 00z Runs from last night with the GFS, Euro, and CMC.  The blend of the solns dictates that we have to watch the system closely, but the Euro IMHO has been the best so far with picking up the upper level patterns when a closed ULL in in play.  The Euro ensemble mean does show a surface LP somewhere off the east coast between the Delmarva and the cape in and around this time frame.  The GFS ensemble mean has the LP center much further east.  So we continue to watch and look for the trends.
Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 29 <a href=Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 29 Gfs_5019" />
Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 29 <a href=Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 29 Euro_516" />
Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 29 <a href=Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 29 Cmc_5014" />

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 25, 2014 8:09 am

sroc, the last storm was cool so a solution like the Euro (which shows even stronger winds) would be fine with me. However the Euro pushes back to almost the 4th or 240 hrs, usually a push back in time is not a good thing in terms of reliability. Thanks for your good explanations as usual sroc, def something to watch in the week to come.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 25, 2014 8:11 am

I also find the 00z Euro suspect as it shows 12+ inches of snow for western NC Tennessee area, yeah right.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Oct 25, 2014 12:27 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I also find the 00z Euro suspect as it shows 12+ inches of snow for western NC Tennessee area, yeah right.

Jman this could be a very dynamic storm if it phases just right. Given the source region of the northern energy a completely phased storm over land in theory could draw in its own cold air to produce snows. I would pay little attention to where snow if falling on the models, but rather if or when a phase occurs, because again if a full phase occurs it probably will snow somewhere. We would not see the snow potential accurately depicted on models; however, until 24hrs or so before with a fully phased system, and may not even know until it happens.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 25, 2014 12:41 pm

Ohh sroc thats kinda exciting, although could be a big letdown, but after I stated my last post I thought about it and how complex the last system was and we had no idea how strong it would be so for all we know this system has nothing right on the models but in fact this system will develop a entirely different way and placement of precip and type will vary greatly from run to run. Yeah I am trying to learn this stuff slowly (comprehension of technical stuff has always been hard for me so it may take me longer than others to understand everything). So are you saying its "possible" this could pull a 2011 where it produced its own cold and not necessarily cold already being in place? If so and if there were wind it would be exponentially worse than 2011. With no wind we lost so many trees and power, I can only imagine with even a little wind (2011 in my are was calm wind). When you say dynamic can you expand if you have time on what you mean by that? Doe you mean complicated or possibly really big strong etc. Waiting to see the 12z models just out of sheer curiosity but after every ones continued expression that its really up to the last minute I am only taking them with half heart. They have to be good for something, otherwise why would they spend so much money on them. Maybe one day we will have models that actually get things spot on in 5-10 day range. The waiting game, ahhh gotta love it (NOT). Glad I have a busy week so if there is something that does transpire next weekend it won't seem like forever. I am not a good waiter lol.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 25, 2014 12:47 pm

I reread that wow that would be bad to have a storm fully phase and not know until it happens can you imagine the panic shoot NY'ers go nuts in winter over a few inches let alone a October snow (that is IF it were to happen which at this time is still on the table (I agree al) but theres a lot of time for things to change for better or worse (and that can be used interchangeably depending on if you want a big storm, snow etc or not). I know you all do not believe in old farm tales and the almanac but the fact that the almanac calls for a storm in the same exact time range is not a coincidence to me. I personally think some of their ways of forcasting things actually are quite smart (but its fine if you disagree, no they do not have a perfect track record, they did pretty bad with the tropical season). Lastly I however do NOT believe that just because IF we get a phased storm that dumps snow on us (even a few inches would be bad, threes still have most of their leaves) we will then have no winter. I do not believe in that hypothesis. But thats me.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 25, 2014 2:44 pm

Okay wow 12z Euro looks like full phase at hr 192 which is good because I thought 240 was too far out. 989mb right over delmarva, sheesh.  That would be one intense storm. Actually on looking at more detiled map it appears the phase happens to late but a secondary low forms and bombs out.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 29 Euro_119
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 25, 2014 2:58 pm

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 29 Euro_120

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 25, 2014 3:01 pm

Winds would be severe if this storm happened this way, and I wont even bother with the snow map (as sroc said no way to tell until its near crunch time) but well north and west of here lets just saw woah.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 29 Wind_e10
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Post by amugs Sat Oct 25, 2014 3:06 pm

12 ZEuro on boar with GFS (6Z for this system so far as CMC - things to watch out for - would be Saturday storm - could be cold rain for coast and wet snows inland - CP, Snow and Doc - maybe yuor winter if we cna get the trend of this for DJF!!

A lot of time but can't wait for this hype to hit the net and social media - I am patiently going to wait but one thing is f or sure after we hit 70's Tuesday (?) then by Thurs morning we are looking at a freeze for the metro area and weekend looks cold low to mid 40's for NYC metro - id teh data is correct - time will tell.

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