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Official Long Range Thread 3.0

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 10, 2014 9:06 am

The 00z Euro has a offshore storm stalling and retrograding back toewards the US with snow for north and cape, this snow idea for next week has not completely left and even has our area for a couple inchs, but Frank said there is no support for this and I do not see any support from other models eitrher but its interesting I wonder why the Euro keeps thinking this.
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Post by amugs Thu Apr 10, 2014 2:24 pm

https://2img.net/h/oi59.tinypic.com/2z7ebsn.png

Cold the middle of next week says Euro - get out the gloves and hats Thurs morning


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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 10, 2014 3:21 pm

The Euro keeps saying snow next week! Two runs in a row now along with the one run yesterday and the two the other day. And look at the temps brrrr as mugs would say, oh and look at day 10m is that a darn tropical system? Craziness!

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 4 Ecmwf_10

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 10, 2014 3:22 pm

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 4 Ecmwf_11
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 10, 2014 3:24 pm

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 4 Ecmwf_12
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 10, 2014 3:25 pm

Oh and can we say a little windy!

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 4 Ecmwf_13
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 10, 2014 3:26 pm

That increases in speed as it passes and gets into the 80mph way over the ocean. Is the Euro still on crack or is starting to pick up on something?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 10, 2014 3:36 pm

Sorry I am get a little crack happy with the maps lol, loving wxbell worth every penny. : )

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 4 Ecmwf_13
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:41 pm

Next week looks like a lot of rain potential
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:41 pm

The cold next week as well geez come on spring get here
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:48 pm

How about these euro ensembles, just added to wxbell per bastardi tweet. Many have some sort of snow for the area over next 10 days some major hits, no one still buying it at all?

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 4 Eps_sn10

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:49 pm

26-50

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 4 Eps_sn11
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 10, 2014 8:04 pm

But I just looked over ,GFS and CMC and they have nothing like this....so why is the Euro somewhat consistent on spawning up a snowstorm? And the others aren't? DOesnt make sense, first season and second the lack of other model support.
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Post by Quietace Thu Apr 10, 2014 8:58 pm

The GEM and GFS have a realistic solution with heavy rain over the area 1-2 inches, some snows in CPA North Eastward. I feel like that could be a good early bet for early next week.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Apr 11, 2014 7:38 am

EURO is nonsense, snow will be confined to high elevation areas over the far interior only.
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Post by amugs Fri Apr 11, 2014 10:11 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:EURO is nonsense, snow will be confined to high elevation areas over the far interior only.

You think??? It is on crack showing these snow maps but my friend north of Roscoe NY may see some snow next week.

GGEM showing a 2-4" rainstorm next Tuesday - let's see what the GFS and Euro show.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Apr 11, 2014 10:36 am

@amugs wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:EURO is nonsense, snow will be confined to high elevation areas over the far interior only.

You think??? It is on crack showing these snow maps but my friend north of Roscoe NY may see some snow next week.

GGEM showing a 2-4" rainstorm next Tuesday - let's see what the GFS and Euro show.

It wouldn't be unusual for parts of the HV, NWNJ or even NEPA to see snow this time of year, 2-4 inches in early or mid April is fairly common.

The 30-40 inches the Euro was showing a couple of times in the past week is absolutely insane, and it's not gonna happen.

But if it did, I would love every minute of it.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:17 pm

CP, the Euro came in again with a foot for eastern areas, It has been consistent on snow in some form the ensembles show a 35% chance out of all 50 of some type of snow ranging from inches to well over a foot.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:24 pm

Where is the above toolbar? And the site is really slow, is Frank aware? I wanted to post a image but the tool bar is gone.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Apr 11, 2014 5:10 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:CP, the Euro came in again with a foot for eastern areas,  It has been consistent on snow in some form the ensembles show a 35% chance out of all 50 of some type of snow ranging from inches to well over a foot.


EURO has snow to the coast according to accumulation map but certain thicknesses don't support it along with the fact it's a weak storm. EURO has a bias of spinning off tail end energy as separate systems, this whole thing won't even happen most likely and even if it does I think it would be rain.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 4 4_11eu10
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Apr 11, 2014 5:14 pm

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 4 Sstanim

Very strong El Niño developing for the summer. Will have my summer outlook out around mid-May.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Apr 13, 2014 9:56 am

Yes seems the Euro was on quite a binge there but has come into line with the other models. 1-2 inches of rain and looks like we may have a period of wind advisory to high wind warning criteria to deal with according to the Euro gusts map.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 4 Wind_g10
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Post by algae888 Sun Apr 13, 2014 10:15 am

from nws

ALSO...THERE IS A GREATER SIGNAL AMONGST THE MODELS OF LINGERING
PRECIP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A TREND TOWARDS COLDER AIR MOVING
IN. THEREFORE...MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE EXPECTED AT
THE TAIL END OF THIS EVENT BEFORE ALL PRECIP ENDS.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH COLD AIR
COULD MOVE IN FOR LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE
MARGINAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO THE COAST...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS THERE.

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Post by Quietace Sun Apr 13, 2014 10:34 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Yes seems the Euro was on quite a binge there but has come into line with the other models.  1-2 inches of rain and looks like we may have a period of wind advisory to high wind warning criteria to deal with according to the Euro gusts map.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 4 Wind_g10
I really doubt we see any advisories for wind with the front.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Apr 13, 2014 11:19 am

Ok well I was just going by the model.
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