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Official Long Range Thread 3.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:33 am

Weekly ONI check for the ENSO regions as of Oct. 22nd:

1+2: +0.8
3: +0.8
3.4: +0.5
4: +0.7

Regions 3.4 and 4 remained the same as last week. Regions 1+2 and 3 increased by 0.1 and 0.3, respectively.

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:07 am

The Siberian Chia Pet folks - grow you biag, grow!!!!

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 32 Post-747-0-01338100-1414497086

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:51 am

Nice snow growth as per the 6Z GFS after this storm as well
Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 32 GFS_3_2014102806_F120_SNOWIN_SURFACE

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Post by algae888 Wed Oct 29, 2014 4:25 pm

well with this storm about done (still holding out hope for some instability snow showers) time to look ahead. next week there are signs of another cold shot (end of week) and closed low off the coast. euro has the strongest but gfs and cmc also has trough in east with precip. also so much for the warm forecast for early-mid nov. as we will be well below normal sat thru tues before we warm up some before the aforementioned cold shot late next week. even though this weekend storm may not turn out how we wanted it was still exciting to track and get back into the flow of winter weather.
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Oct 29, 2014 4:29 pm

I just like the fact that we are getting precip every week. Eventually when the cold is consistent, we will get the white stuff. Not worried, it is only October and there are too many variables at play this time of year. Right now I'm just trying to get a firewood delivery by Friday to take the chill out of the house this weekend!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:56 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:I just like the fact that we are getting precip every week. Eventually when the cold is consistent, we will get the white stuff. Not worried, it is only October and there are too many variables at play this time of year. Right now I'm just trying to get a firewood delivery by Friday to take the chill out of the house this weekend!

Janet who do you get your wood from? I have a guy if need be from Township - you may even know him Cliff Hedjuk.

I can PM you his # if you'd like.

Mugs

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Oct 29, 2014 6:39 pm

Yep mugs, that's who I use!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
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Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Analog96 Wed Oct 29, 2014 6:44 pm

Something we have to really watch for as the season unfolds is not temps in our backyard- at least not just yet. Plenty of the analogs that are showing up in the analog sets, such as 2009-10, 2003-04, and 1963-64, had warm or even very warm weather right through November.

But what's more important are two things a) coastal storms- if we don't see a nice little parade of storms somewhere near the coast, then we probably won't in the winter, and b ) the cold air in the source region.

We need to see the cold air build up in the Dakotas, the Northern Rockies, and adjacent Canada this time of year.

If the source region is warm, we won't have anywhere to tap our cold air from.

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Oct 29, 2014 6:50 pm

@Analog96 wrote:Something we have to really watch for as the season unfolds is not temps in our backyard- at least not just yet.  Plenty of the analogs that are showing up in the analog sets, such as 2009-10, 2003-04, and 1963-64, had warm or even very warm weather right through November.  

But what's more important are two things a) coastal storms- if we don't see a nice little parade of storms somewhere near the coast, then we probably won't in the winter, and b ) the cold air in the source region.  

We need to see the cold air build up in the Dakotas, the Northern Rockies, and adjacent Canada this time of year.

If the source region is warm, we won't have anywhere to tap our cold air from.

Here were the 500 mb heights and anomalies for November 2003 and November 2009, not sure offhand where November 1963 would be.

Nov. 2003: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/hgtanomaly-usa/200311.gif

Nov. 2009: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/hgtanomaly-usa/200911.gif

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:16 pm

Hey Mike do you have the link as to where I can produce those maps myself? The analog site I use has older maps.

@Greg- once this storm passes, even though it may not effect us, we would have seen 2 coastal storms in 2 weeks. With the emergence of Nino, I do not think we will have to worry about the storm but perhaps the cold air.

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:10 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Hey Mike do you have the link as to where I can produce those maps myself? The analog site I use has older maps.

@Greg- once this storm passes, even though it may not effect us, we would have seen 2 coastal storms in 2 weeks. With the emergence of Nino, I do not think we will have to worry about the storm but perhaps the cold air.

Frank, here is the link, but it does not give monthly 500 mb anomalies prior to 2002:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/maps.php?imgs%5B%5D=hgtanomaly-usa&year=2014&month=9&ts=1&submitted=Submit

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:16 am

Oh dang, that's unfortunate. Lol. Thanks though

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