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April 15th Spring Storm, Winter-Like Cold Returning

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:09 am

A potent spring storm is going to bring rain to the area Tuesday morning into early Tuesday evening. Temps in the morning may be in the low 60's, but once the front passes through, they will take a 30-40 degree drop and fall near freezing (below freezing in higher elevations north and west). Between .50-1.00 inches of rain can be expected. Inland areas, specifically in eastern PA, can expect minor snow accumulations on grassy surfaces. Here is the snow map:

April 15th Spring Storm, Winter-Like Cold Returning 10154530_718014681583627_6817219106320905795_n

We can use this thread as observation. NYC Metro should not see any snow out of this. Maybe a a snow shower?

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Post by amugs Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:16 am

Frank,

CP and Sonw may see some snow and I like the new picture - good looking kid in that picture - when was that taken?

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:30 am

@amugs wrote:Frank,

CP and Sonw may see some snow and I like the new picture - good looking kid in that picture - when was that taken?

Last year at school, thanks!

Clouds rolling in now, should cut off temps. from getting as warm as yesterday

April 15th Spring Storm, Winter-Like Cold Returning Vis_nj_anim

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Post by amugs Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:49 am

April 15th Spring Storm, Winter-Like Cold Returning Post-747-0-20921200-1397485850

Crazy but I have seen this before!

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:40 am

@amugs wrote:April 15th Spring Storm, Winter-Like Cold Returning Post-747-0-20921200-1397485850

Crazy but I have seen this before!


haha mugs...."stuck in the middle with you....."

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Post by amugs Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:48 am

Zoo - just can't win 'em can we - not that I want snow now but in general.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Apr 14, 2014 4:16 pm

So here is latest from Upton: Looks like although no long sustained periods of winds will warrrent advisories or warnings there could be some gusts as high as 55mph in heavier bands. Just another cold wet day and night.

THE STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW IS NEARLY THE SAME COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH NEARLY THE SAME MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL JET.
NAM SHOWS 70-80 KT AROUND 900MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHILE GFS SHOWS 60-70 KT. INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS BUT MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN MAY HAVE ENOUGH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TO OVERCOME THE
INVERSION AND BRING A FRACTION OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET TO THE
SURFACE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL HERE FOR HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE 40-55
MPH RANGE WITH HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL BE MORE PERIODIC IN FREQUENCY.
FOR EXAMPLE...THIS COULD BE OBSERVED WITHIN HEAVIER CELLS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE POINTING TO THIS SORT OF
STRUCTURE TO RAINFALL BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.

PRECIP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES A TREND TO END AS A
SLEET/SNOW MIX AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...MAINLY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. PART OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BETWEEN 700 AND 850 MB MAY
STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING...HENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET.
GUSTS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT TOO WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASING THE MIXING LENGTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE BETWEEN 35-45 MPH
WITH THE DECREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
HAVE MOVED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE FRONT.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Apr 14, 2014 5:43 pm

Eh not really thinking it'll turn to snow around these parts, yes in the higher elevations. It will be cool for a few days in the lower 50s then temps will moderate back to the 60s. Got to 80 again today.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:37 am

Here comes the rain...

April 15th Spring Storm, Winter-Like Cold Returning Post-747-0-46213200-1397568106

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Post by Dtone Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:05 am

Freeze Warning for suburbs just W of NYC and Northern Westchester, Rockland. Further N&W I guess the growing season hasn't started yet to issue a warning for.
The warning actually extends to all central, southern NJ, SE PA, mid atlantic states and inland south.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY
AND THE SOUTHERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...

NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ069-070-152115-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FZ.W.0001.140416T0600Z-140416T1400Z/
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
404 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTIES OF NEW
YORK AND MOST OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT
OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

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Post by algae888 Tue Apr 15, 2014 1:24 pm

rain very unimpressive here in lower Westchester .14 inches so far forecast for 1.75 inches. its going to have to rain very hard here this afternoon to reach that. heavy rain looks to be to my west and east and I seem to be in a rain hole.lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Apr 15, 2014 1:26 pm

@algae888 wrote:rain very unimpressive here in lower Westchester .14 inches so far forecast for 1.75 inches. its going to have to rain very hard here this afternoon to reach that. heavy rain looks to be to my west and east and I seem to be in a rain hole.lol

1.75 is way too high. I've been saying .50-1.00

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Post by amugs Tue Apr 15, 2014 2:56 pm

April 15th Spring Storm, Winter-Like Cold Returning SN_000-048_0000
 
RGEM - says about 1-3" for the burbs of NYC Metro - REALLY??

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Post by amugs Tue Apr 15, 2014 3:00 pm

April 15th Spring Storm, Winter-Like Cold Returning SN_000-048_0000

12Z GFS says RGEM is right - we shall see with this - skeptical but would not be surprised to see a coating in my NNJ area tomorrow - put down the lime, fert and seed last week - YIPPEEEE!!


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Post by amugs Tue Apr 15, 2014 3:02 pm

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/progs/index.php?prog=24April 15th Spring Storm, Winter-Like Cold Returning Index

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Post by algae888 Tue Apr 15, 2014 3:42 pm

RAINFALL TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. From upton. I have .19 inches of rain. I doubt very much that I even get close to an inch of rain. there is a squall line to the west so we shall see
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Post by essexcountypete Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:42 pm

Pouring here in Florham Park. With this and the line that moved through before I suspect we're around an inch and wouldn't be surprised at all if we hit that 1.5"/2" total in the end.
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:56 pm

This has been EXTREMELY uneventful so far in NYC in terms of rainfall. Bands simply keep 'dying' right upon impact from the West.
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Post by Quietace Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:01 pm

.64 so far here. Not bad.

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Post by amugs Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:10 pm

High of 64.8* this afternoon - no wdown to 48.6* in a matter of 70 minutes so far and I have ,56" of rain.

Last squall line to ocme through dumped ,29" and had a wind gust of 32 mph

Rain Snow Line in EPA and up by Monticello NY - near you CP?

Lee just showe that rain changing to snow by 10ishPM and lasting until about 1ish in NNJ and it goe all teh way to easter LI.

WHy do I get the feeling they will see an inch or few out there - just a feeling since they have been the jackpot this year for most of these storm - ALex get ready as well as Nofo!!

Snow I may actually deliver to you and CP if I am lucky - HAHAHA 
 king

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Post by amugs Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:13 pm

Check out the 18 Z NAM - that is what may fall but accumulating is another story

April 15th Spring Storm, Winter-Like Cold Returning Post-6-0-00575400-1397596069

April 15th Spring Storm, Winter-Like Cold Returning 1932252_10203721193377059_8037558161590743219_n

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:25 pm

@amugs wrote:Check out the 18 Z NAM - that is what may fall but accumulating is another story

April 15th Spring Storm, Winter-Like Cold Returning Post-6-0-00575400-1397596069

April 15th Spring Storm, Winter-Like Cold Returning 1932252_10203721193377059_8037558161590743219_n

LOL I'm a little skeptical of that, doesn't really look very impressive as of now.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true
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Post by algae888 Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:31 pm

front went through temperatures are falling into the 40's and the radar looks juicy to the south. raining all the way down through the Carolina still. going to be interesting tonight to see if we get any snow and if it sticks
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Post by Quietace Tue Apr 15, 2014 7:41 pm

Radar blossoming again to my south
April 15th Spring Storm, Winter-Like Cold Returning Dix_n018

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Apr 15, 2014 7:48 pm

Definitely a lot of moisture, looking at the radar, it is showing snow in Binghamton NY but looks like rain on the traffic cameras....

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